Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_ON, built on a "war de-escalation" macro tag from recent weeks — a call that's being stress-tested by fresh geopolitical headlines breaking right into the open.

Conviction: 55.1/100 Across 1,000 names scored, the mean composite sits modestly above neutral, with only 18.8% of stocks screening high-conviction — a mildly constructive but narrow-breadth setup, not a broad "all clear."

On the calendar today Minutes from June's FOMC meeting — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — are due Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for hints on the Fed's plans for interest rates. Futures markets are pricing a 72.7% likelihood the Fed holds rates steady in July. No major economic prints or bank earnings are due today; CPI and Q2 bank results land next week.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures fell as oil surged and President Trump declared that the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran was "over," with Dow futures down nearly 600 points and Nasdaq 100 futures off 1.3%. Crude jumped more than 6.5% to $75/barrel and Brent rose over 6% to near $79.