Market Outlook

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX at 18.93 — elevated but not panicked, consistent with a market digesting fresh tariff action and a fragile geopolitical de-escalation rather than an acute shock.

Conviction: 48.9/100 A near-neutral score with only 2.3% of the 1,423-stock universe screening high-conviction — the model sees little broad-based opportunity today and is leaning defensive/selective rather than aggressive.

On the calendar today

The July 2026 FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting held Tuesday, July 28 and Wednesday, July 29, with the policy decision on the 29th. The rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, with the statement released first, followed by the Chair's press conference. This week also brings the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) and weekly jobless claims. Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, July 29th, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday, July 30th.

Overnight & premarket

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 3.95% lower, while South Korea's Kospi fell 10.84%, hit by a semiconductor rout — Kospi heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix dropped 13.4% and over 14.7%, respectively. U.S. chip stocks followed: Micron down over 4% premarket, Nvidia down ~1.2%, Intel and AMD off more than 3%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.73%. Oil sits near $81 WTI.

What to watch 1) Whether U.S. chip stocks stabilize or extend the Asia-led selloff. 2) Fed meeting kickoff tone ahead of Wednesday's decision. 3) Iran mediation developments — Trump says if mediation fails the U.S. resumes bombing, and meets Netanyahu at the White House today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 27, 2026

The model portfolio (44 holdings) returned +0.18% today versus a roughly flat SPY, a modest ~16bp edge in a session where the S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18, up 1.20 points, or +0.02%.

What drove it: The gap traces to sector positioning. Chipmakers were the day's weak spot — NVDA fell nearly 5% as renewed AI-valuation concerns weighed on markets ahead of this week's hyperscaler earnings. QNTM's model carries limited exposure there, so it avoided most of the Nasdaq drag. Meanwhile, communications and consumer defensive stocks were among today's top-performing sectors while technology and energy sectors lagged — energy softened as the same catalyst that lifted risk sentiment (oil's plunge) cut into producer margins. That trade was geopolitical: oil fell and bonds gained with stocks as the US and Iran refrained from further strikes, with Brent dropping as much as 7.4% before paring losses, consistent with QNTM's "war de-escalation" macro flag and WTI settling near $82.

Market recap: The Dow gained almost 0.5% while the S&P 500 was little changed, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 0.2% as oil's slide offset tech weakness at the start of the busiest earnings week of the quarter. VIX eased to ~18.8, and QNTM's conviction score sits at a subdued 48.9 with just 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe flagged high-conviction — reflecting a market still digesting mixed signals.

Next up: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon earnings and the Fed decision loom this week — likely volatility catalysts.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX at 17.66 and WTI near $83.45. New tariffs took effect just after midnight ET Friday on dozens of countries over alleged forced-labor violations, keeping trade policy squarely in the "risk-off" bucket even as broader risk appetite firms up this morning.

Conviction: 48.5/100 A near-neutral reading with only 1.6% of the 1,423-stock universe in high-conviction territory — the model sees a mixed, low-clarity setup rather than a broad tailwind or headwind for individual names today.

On the calendar today No major U.S. data due Monday, but this is one of the busiest periods of the second-quarter earnings season, with Microsoft and Meta reporting on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday, plus Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford, and PayPal. The FOMC meets Wednesday, with policymakers widely expected to hold rates steady; investors will watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, plus the advance Q2 GDP estimate, June PCE inflation, and durable goods orders later this week.

Overnight & premarket

Futures surged Monday morning as oil sank, with Dow futures up 1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.9%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up roughly 1.4% after a choppy prior week. Sentiment got a lift as the US and Iran paused fighting over the weekend, and oil prices tumbled over 7%.

What to watch 1) Tariff headlines/retaliation from trading partners on the new forced-labor duties. 2) Wednesday's Fed decision and Warsh's tone. 3) Big Tech earnings starting midweek, given their index weight.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — week ending July 25, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.92% this week versus SPY's -0.43%, a roughly 2.4-point edge across 44 holdings, while QNTM's regime engine flipped to RISK_OFF (VIX 18.7, conviction score 48.4 on 1,423 names scored, only 1.5% rated high-conviction).

Drivers: Wednesday was the week's worst session for the broad market — the tech-heavy index was bogged down by a 7% drop in Alphabet and a 14% loss in Tesla following their earnings reports, while oil prices put more pressure on stocks, as they soared after Yemen's Houthi militant group claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. Chips stayed weak into Friday, as a gauge of semiconductor firms sank 4.3% and the Nasdaq 100 fell over 1%, even as a 3.5% jump in Apple boosted the blue-chip index. QNTM's lighter mega-cap/semis weighting relative to SPY's benchmark composition likely limited drag from those names.

Macro backdrop: The two flags behind RISK_OFF were tariffs and war. New tariffs applying to 60 trade partners, covering over 99% of U.S. trade, were imposed by the Trump administration just after midnight ET Friday, layered on an already-jittery tape from Middle East escalation and oil volatility.

Next week: Markets remain unsettled ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, with investors uncertain whether Kevin Warsh will back a rate increase, alongside earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Apple.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.88% today versus +0.10% for SPY, a solid ~78bp edge in a choppy, headline-driven tape.

What drove it: QNTM flagged a RISK_OFF regime overnight (WTI $89.63, VIX 18.9) after Trump's new tariff round and Middle East escalation. That kept the model's concentrated 46-name book tilted toward quality/value and away from semiconductors and AI-capex-linked megacaps — the session's weak spots. A gauge of semiconductor firms sank 4.4% while most other S&P 500 shares actually rose, and communications services and consumer discretionary stocks came under heavy selling pressure amid mounting geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. By having limited exposure to that pocket of the market, QNTM's book benefited from broader-market breadth rather than the narrow tech drag.

Market recap: It was a two-way session. The S&P 500 moved into negative territory early, weighed down by chip stocks, then stocks moved higher after Reuters reported Pakistan is considering brokering new U.S.-Iran peace talks, which pulled oil off its highs. The Dow gained 232 points, boosted by a 3% jump in Apple. This followed Thursday's sharper selloff, when oil surged to $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, and Trump replaced expiring tariffs with a new round.

What's next: Conviction sits low (49.1, only 2.6% high-conviction names), so watch for follow-through on any Iran de-escalation headlines and next week's earnings/tariff clarity. Educational only — not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's models flipped defensive as new broad-based tariffs took effect and Red Sea tanker attacks reignited war-risk premia in energy — a classic double-shock setup that typically compresses risk appetite across the scored universe.

Conviction: 48.8/100 Right at the coin-flip line, with only 2.0% of the ~1,423 names scored as high-conviction — signaling the model sees very few stocks with a clean, multi-pillar edge today; breadth of opportunity is thin.

On the calendar today Before the bell: American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, plus SLB, Charter, CNI, HCA and others. Economic data to watch includes S&P Global's flash PMI updates on services and manufacturing for July, and new home sales.

Overnight & premarket

Thursday marked the S&P 500's worst single-day performance in a month on geopolitical risk and AI-spending concerns after Alphabet's earnings, while Brent crude briefly topped $100/barrel after attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Nasdaq-100 futures were roughly flat Friday as markets tried to stabilize after Thursday's megacap tech sell-off, with Brent easing back below $99. Treasury yields retreated Friday after briefly hitting the highest level since January 2025 the prior day.

What to watch 1) Whether oil holds below $100 or the Red Sea situation escalates further. 2) 10-year yield direction near the 4.7% level. 3) Follow-through (or reversal) in AI/megacap tech after Thursday's rout.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 23, 2026

Model vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio slipped just -0.09% today, sharply outperforming SPY's -1.2% decline — a wide, one-day gap of roughly 110 basis points.

What drove it: Today's SPY loss was concentrated in a handful of mega-caps reporting earnings. Alphabet lifted its 2026 capex forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion, up from a prior $180–190 billion range, reigniting investor caution about hyperscaler AI spending, and the stock fell sharply alongside declines in Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Amazon. Tesla dropped 14% after posting a big Q2 earnings miss, with operating expenses rising faster than revenue. Because SPY is cap-weighted, these few names disproportionately dragged the index down. QNTM's model, spread across 50 positions with no single-stock concentration in that magnitude, largely sidestepped the damage from this narrow mega-cap air-pocket.

Market recap: The Dow fell about 1%, the S&P 500 dropped roughly 1.2-1.4%, and the Nasdaq lost about 2.2-2.3%. Oil prices also pressured stocks after Yemen's Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, adding geopolitical risk to an already earnings-heavy session.

QNTM read: Conviction sits at 48.5 (neutral), with only 1.7% of the 1,423-name universe screening as high-conviction — consistent with a cautious, earnings-driven tape.

What's next: More Big Tech and industrial earnings land through Friday; watch for whether AI-capex jitters spread further or stabilize.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flipped to Risk-Off, consistent with a VIX near 18 and crude near $91 WTI. One-line read: with oil spiking on war-escalation headlines, the model is favoring defense over offense today.

Conviction: 48.8/100 Mean composite sits at 48.8 across 1,423 names scored, with only 1.8% screening as high-conviction — a neutral-to-cautious tape where the model finds few names with a clean, multi-pillar edge.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims were due at 8:30am ET, with consensus at 212K versus a prior 208K. It's otherwise a light macro day — the calendar is relatively light ahead of the next Fed meeting, which runs July 28-29. Earnings are heavy, with 183 companies reporting Thursday, following Tesla and Alphabet's after-hours reports Wednesday.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock futures fell, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures each sliding roughly 0.4%, pressured by results from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM along with ongoing geopolitical unrest. Tesla shares fell 5.9% to $352.10 in premarket after a Q2 profit miss, with revenue up 26% to $28.24B but operating income down 57%. Crude jumped after reports of attacks on tankers off Saudi Arabia and renewed U.S. threats to escalate strikes against Iran. Asia was firmer overnight as the Kospi rose 2.8% and Samsung and SK Hynix each gained more than 3% on AI-spending optimism.

What to watch 1) Oil's trajectory as Middle East tensions evolve intraday. 2) Reaction in AI/chip and energy names to overnight moves. 3) Broader earnings tape given ~180 reports today, which could offset or extend the Alphabet/Tesla-driven tone.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 22, 2026

The model portfolio fell -0.48% today versus SPY's roughly flat -0.03%, a meaningful gap given the RISK_OFF regime flagged this morning (VIX ~16.9, WTI ~$86.92).

What drove it: Wall Street investors bracing for the start of big-tech earnings sent stocks wavering while worries about an escalation of the Iran war boosted oil prices, with losses in most megacaps offsetting a rebound in chipmakers as Nvidia climbed 3%; software firms got hit again. That software/AI-software weakness is where the model's underperformance likely concentrated: Palantir shares declined 6.4%, erasing $22 billion in market cap on worries about its steep valuation, following a negative signal in the software sector highlighting postponed AI investments, and Reddit slipped 5.9% on reports it's reconsidering its Google AI data-licensing deal, raising questions about effects on core operations. A model with above-benchmark weight in high-momentum software names would lag a cap-weighted SPY that got partial offset from chip strength.

Market recap: Oil extended gains after Trump played down near-term Iran talks while threatening broader strikes, with Brent near $92 and WTI above $85. Adding to the risk-off tone, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on specific Canadian goods amid renewed inflation concerns.

What's next: With Alphabet and Tesla earnings due after the bell, headline reactions there — plus any further Iran/tariff developments — are likely to set tomorrow's tone. QNTM's high-conviction share stayed thin (1.6%), reflecting broad caution across the scored universe. This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's regime overlay reads NEUTRAL — a market pulled two ways by de-escalating Middle East tensions and renewed tariff headlines, with no clear directional edge for stock-picking factors today.

Conviction: 49.4/100 At 49.4 across 1,423 scored names (2.2% at high conviction), the model sees a roughly coin-flip opportunity set — few standout setups, consistent with a market digesting mixed catalysts rather than trending.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting (next is July 29) and no major US data print scheduled. Earnings are the story: AT&T, Philip Morris, GE Vernova, Moody's and Cal-Maine report before the open; Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow and CSX report after the close. UK CPI is the notable overseas data point.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures fell as investors looked ahead to another busy day of earnings, pressured by a rise in oil prices; Brent topped $95 and WTI climbed above $87 on continued US-Iran strikes, before easing on reports of a possible ten-day pause in strikes. Tuesday's session saw semiconductor strength lift the Nasdaq despite renewed tariff uncertainty, with a proposed 50% tariff on Canadian goods in focus. Texas Instruments rose ahead of today's results.

What to watch 1) Alphabet/Tesla earnings after the close — first Mag-7 reads this week. 2) Whether oil holds gains or fades further on de-escalation headlines, given WTI's ~$87 handle. 3) Follow-through (or fade) in the chip-led rally after Tuesday's SOX surge.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.34% today, nearly 50bps ahead of SPY's +0.85%. Both benchmark and model finished well into positive territory even though QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF conditions (broad tariffs, war escalation) — a reminder that the macro-risk read and same-day price action can diverge.

What drove it: The outperformance tracked back to the model's tilt toward AI/semiconductor names, the session's clear leadership group. Stocks gained momentum Tuesday as investors braced for tech earnings amid signs of a chip-stock revival, with fresh US tariffs on Canada and Middle East hostilities also in focus. A standout mover was Nebius, which jumped 18.78% after Nvidia disclosed a stake in the company, part of a broader semis rebound that lifted the model's tech book more than the SPY-wide average. Energy-adjacent and tariff-exposed positions were the drag, as the Trump administration moved to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over alcohol, auto and dairy trade issues.

Market recap: The S&P 500 rose 0.89%, the Dow gained 0.74%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.29%, and the VIX fell to 16.89. Oil stayed elevated — crude rose above $83/barrel as the US carried out a 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran, which responded with strikes on Kuwait, even as ceasefire talk circulated.

What's next: Megacap earnings begin Wednesday with Tesla and Alphabet — a key test for whether AI spending can justify current valuations.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, and that lines up with the tape: markets are digesting fresh tariff actions and an escalating Middle East conflict even as VIX sits a relatively calm 17.72.

Conviction: 49.0/100 A near-50 composite with only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe in high-conviction territory signals a broadly neutral, low-signal environment — the model isn't finding many stocks with strong multi-factor alignment right now.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting today, but Fed-funds futures are pricing an 83.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged at July's meeting (later this month). Earnings flow is heavy, including Equifax, 3M, Atlassian, CrowdStrike, Waste Management, and Danaher, with markets also bracing for the coming wave of Big Tech and chip results.

Overnight & premarket

Futures rose as investors braced for earnings amid a chip-stock revival, with fresh US tariffs on Canada and Middle East hostilities also in focus; Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.3%. Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, and U.S. forces carried out new strikes on Iranian targets. Asian markets closed mixed — Hong Kong and India fell while China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan rose. WTI eased near $82, while gold rose about 1.5% toward $4,067/oz.

What to watch 1) Middle East headlines and oil-price swings given the Houthi blockade threat. 2) Semiconductor/AI names into this week's Big Tech earnings wave. 3) Tariff-related sector reaction, especially industrials and materials.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, July 20, 2026

QNTM's rules-based model portfolio edged down 0.03% today, outperforming SPY's 0.21% decline by about 18 basis points. Small win, but notable given the backdrop.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to RISK_OFF overnight as the model's macro overlay reacted to the "war_escalation" flag — the U.S. completed its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran overnight. With average conviction at just 49.3 and only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction," the model's 50-holding portfolio stayed defensively tilted and lighter on the mega-cap tech names that whipsawed benchmarks intraday. That mattered: the S&P 500 traded down 0.1% while the Dow lost 0.6%, dragged by more than a 1% loss in Apple, even as the Nasdaq rose on oil-price fluctuations tied to the Iran conflict, with chipmakers giving the index a boost. QNTM's underweight to that volatile Apple/mega-cap complex helped it avoid the worst of the Dow's drag.

Market recap: WTI crude settled near $82.78, and U.S. gas prices again surged to an average of $4 a gallon as Middle East tensions intensified. The VIX rose to around 18.6-18.77, a modest fear-gauge pickup consistent with QNTM's risk-off shift. Investors are watching upcoming AI-spending earnings, with Alphabet reporting July 22.

What's next: Watch for follow-through on Iran headlines and whether tech earnings can stabilize the recent AI-stock volatility.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF for the July 20 session — a defensive posture reflecting geopolitical shock risk rather than a broad growth scare.

Conviction: 54/100 The mean composite of 54 across 1,000 scored names, with only 17% screening high-conviction, points to a narrow, cautious tape — the model sees pockets of opportunity but no broad "all clear."

On the calendar today No major Fed or CPI/PCE prints today. Earnings season is accelerating this week with reports from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel and several major industrial and consumer companies due over coming sessions.

Overnight & premarket

The U.S

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 17, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.37% today vs. SPY at -0.91%, a roughly 128 bps edge in a broad down session — one of the model's better relative days this month.

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector positioning. The Dow fell about 0.7%, the S&P 500 declined 1%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.4% as the major indexes posted weekly losses led by declines in the semiconductor sector. The PHLX Semiconductor Index entered a bear market, with Micron and Intel dropping over 4% and Nvidia down roughly 2-4% depending on the tape. QNTM's model — scanning ~1,000 names with a value/quality/momentum blend, not a cap-weighted tech tilt — carried lighter chip exposure into the session, sidestepping the worst of that leg down. On the earnings front, Netflix sank 11% after it forecast another quarter of slowing sales, another name the model held underweight. Meanwhile top gainers were Travelers Companies, UnitedHealth and Walmart — the kind of value/quality names the model's factor tilt favors — helping offset broad-market weakness.

Market recap: Chinese AI start-up Moonshot's Kimi K3 model release added to investor unease about U.S. tech spending, while oil prices rose amid escalating Middle East tensions, with WTI crude gaining to around $82/barrel. VIX ticked up to ~18.8, still a moderate-vol regime.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, aligning with a session marked by renewed Mideast conflict and a stalling AI trade — a backdrop favoring defensive positioning over aggressive exposure.

Conviction: 54.5/100 With only 18.1% of the 1,000-name scored universe registering high-conviction signals, the model reflects a cautious, split tape rather than broad-based opportunity.

On the calendar today

June's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data will be released by 9:15 a.m., and July's preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey data will be out by 10:00 a.m. Housing Starts and Import/Export Price Index also post at 8:30 a.m. Earnings reaction is dominating: Netflix stock declined by over 10% in premarket trading after the company's third quarter revenue forecast disappointed the Street, while Intuitive Surgical dropped 9.28% despite posting better-than-expected second-quarter results.

Overnight & premarket

Nasdaq-100 contracts shed around 1.6% following a downbeat day on Wall Street and the release of the world's most powerful open AI model. Dow and S&P futures also fell. Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Hong Kong, China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan indices falling; European markets were mostly lower in early trade. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities after the end of a ceasefire have pushed energy prices higher, raising fears pricing pressure could persist rather than pass through.

What to watch 1) Semiconductor follow-through after a fresh open-source AI model rattled valuations; 2) Oil-driven inflation risk tied to the Mideast escalation; 3) Whether weak Michigan sentiment confirms consumer strain alongside earnings misses.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 16, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.47% today, modestly ahead of SPY's -0.52%. With conviction at 54.2 (neutral regime) and only 17.5% of the 1,000-name scored universe flagged high-conviction, the model's 50-name book stayed defensively concentrated — and that light tilt away from mega-cap semis is likely what limited the damage relative to the benchmark.

What drove it: The session's pain was almost entirely a chip story. The S&P 500 fell as a sell-off in chip stocks overshadowed a raft of solid earnings reports, with the Nasdaq Composite losing 1.4%. Micron, AMD, Sandisk, Intel, and Broadcom dropped around 3% even after strong TSMC numbers, as skepticism that AI hyperscalers could slow infrastructure spending was compounded by Korea prohibiting leveraged ETFs and signals of more efficient machines from ASML. A quant model without heavy semiconductor concentration would have avoided the worst of that leg down, explaining the relative outperformance versus SPY. On the offset side, UnitedHealth surged 7% after beating earnings and raising its full-year guidance — a name QNTM's quality/value pillars have favored — helping cushion holdings exposed elsewhere.

Market recap: US stocks fell on pressure from chip producers and risks of a hawkish Federal Reserve, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 off more than 1%. Treasury yields rose as the U.S. continued striking Iran and crude stayed near recent highs, while June retail sales

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by the flagged "war_escalation" event — crude prices perked up after U.S. Central Command said the U.S. launched more attacks against Iran, with WTI futures near $80.21 a barrel. Despite the label, VIX at 16.33 shows options markets aren't pricing panic — a mixed signal worth watching.

Conviction: 54/100 A near-neutral reading (1,000 names scored, 15.6% high-conviction) suggests the model sees a balanced, non-extreme setup — neither broad-based strength nor weakness across the five pillars.

On the calendar today 8:30am ET: June retail sales, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Pending home sales (m/m) at 16:00 GMT, consensus -0.5% vs prior 3.8%. UnitedHealth reports before the bell and Netflix after the close.

Overnight & premarket

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,572.40; futures were down 0.1% early Thursday. TSMC's results failed to generate optimism in after-hours trading, with shares down 1.4%, pressuring chip names. June PPI fell 0.3%, beating expectations for no change, while core PPI rose 0.2% versus a 0.3% forecast.

What to watch 1) Retail sales — a soft print could reinforce rate-cut bets but stoke growth worries; 2) Strait of Hormuz developments and oil price follow-through; 3) Netflix earnings reaction after the bell, a bellwether for mega-cap tech sentiment.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 15, 2026

QNTM's 50-stock model portfolio slipped -0.84% today while SPY gained +0.34%, a roughly 1.2-point miss. With only 50 concentrated names versus a 1,000-stock scored universe (conviction 53.9, 16.1% high-conviction), single-name drag matters — and today it did.

What drove it: Broad tech led the tape, but not evenly. Arista Networks lost $15.4 billion in market cap as insider selling by CEO Jayshree Ullal and other executives pressured the stock, dropping 6.6% intraday on valuation concerns despite bullish analyst commentary. Meanwhile investors rotated out of chipmakers and into mega-cap tech — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple rallied while Micron fell 7%, Lam Research dropped over 4%, and Intel and AMD slid 5% and 3%. A model tilted toward momentum/AI-infrastructure names likely absorbed both the Arista-specific hit and the semiconductor rotation, offsetting gains elsewhere in the book.

Market recap: The S&P 500 rose to 7,574, up 0.40%, as US stock indices rose amid signs that the war in Iran has not been as inflationary as feared. June PPI slowed more than expected, echoing cooler CPI data that showed the largest single-month inflation decline since April

Market Regime: RISK_OFF. Oil-driven geopolitical stress (US-Iran escalation) is overriding a constructive inflation backdrop, keeping QNTM's macro overlay defensive even as equity indexes hold near highs.

Conviction: 54.0/100, with 15.6% of the 1,000-name scored universe in high-conviction territory. A reading near the neutral midpoint signals a balanced, low-clarity setup — no strong broad-based tilt either way.

On the calendar today: Empire State Index and Producer Price Index (June) at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus the Fed's Beige Book. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the second day of his monetary-policy testimony to Congress. Earnings include Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, Elevance Health, M&T Bank, BlackRock, United Airlines, J.B. Hunt, and Cintas.

Overnight & premarket: At 6:09 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 108 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures up 13.5 points (0.18%), Nasdaq 100 futures up 136.75 points (0.46%). ASML rose 3.8% premarket after raising its 2026 forecasts on AI demand. PayPal jumped 18.5% premarket on reports of a $53 billion takeover offer from Stripe and Advent International. Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel, advancing for a third session after Trump threatened additional strikes on Iran after reinstating a blockade; WTI sits near $80.

What to watch: 1. PPI/Beige Book vs. Warsh's tone — Tuesday's soft CPI cut the odds of a July hike to 17% from 42%; hawkish surprises could reprice that. 2. Oil/Hormuz headlines — Trump has threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export hub, a risk for energy-sensitive sectors. 3. Bank/healthcare earnings reaction following Tuesday's strong bank results.

QNTM Day Wrap — July 14, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.13% today versus +0.40% for SPY, a ~73bp outperformance day, with conviction sitting at a middling 53.8 across 1,000 scored names (NEUTRAL regime, VIX 16.4).

What drove it: The gap likely traces to sector positioning rather than a single mega-cap bet. Real Money moved into semis and select tech/growth after cooler CPI, and Nasdaq's outsized gain (+0.90% vs. Dow's +0.02%) suggests names with momentum/quality tilts — the kind QNTM's model favors — carried the day. Tower Semiconductor and CleanSpark jumped on upbeat company-specific news, the type of idiosyncratic mover that can lift a concentrated 50-name book. Meanwhile IBM shares plunged roughly 25% after the hybrid cloud products provider issued an earnings warning — a stock a value/quality screen would typically underweight, sparing the model that drag that hit the Dow.

Market recap: Investors parsed a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report, which showed that inflation rose 3.5% in June on an annualized basis, below economists' expectations of 3.8%. The CPI fell 0.4% from May, dragged down by the biggest decline in gasoline prices since 2022. Bank earnings kicked off the season with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo posting solid, yet mixed and unspectacular results. Oil stayed elevated (WTI ~$79.58) on lingering Iran-Hormuz tensions.

Next: Watch continued Q2 bank/tech earnings and any follow-through in oil given the ongoing Strait

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay sits in RISK_OFF, flagging a hawkish Fed tone alongside tentative war de-escalation signals — a mixed backdrop where defensive positioning still dominates despite hopes for a Middle East cooling-off.

Conviction: 54.1/100 A reading just above the neutral midpoint across roughly 1,000 scored names, with only 15.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees selective opportunity, not broad-based strength.

On the calendar today

Economists expect consumer price inflation cooled in June; however, that has not deterred bond traders from increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its July 28-29 meeting. CPI lands at 8:30am ET. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10am ET, his first appearance before Congress. Earnings include Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures wavered as markets awaited the inflation report and monitored rising oil prices amid the renewed US-Iran war, with Dow futures slipping 0.3%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%. Oil futures jumped over 4%, topping $81/barrel, as US-Iran fighting stretched to a third day. AI chip stocks stayed under pressure, with newly listed SK Hynix shares dropping further.

What to watch 1. CPI surprise vs. cooling expectations, given hike odds are rising into July 28-29 FOMC. 2. Warsh's tone on rates during testimony — first public read on his policy stance. 3. Oil-driven volatility from Strait of Hormuz strikes; bank earnings guidance on rate/macro uncertainty.

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, July 13, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell 1.69% today, underperforming SPY's -0.77% by roughly 90bps. Conviction sat at a lukewarm 53.6, with only 14.5% of the 1,000 names scored flagged high-conviction — consistent with the RISK_OFF regime overlay the system triggered.

What drove it: The model's 50-name book skews toward momentum and quality factors, which left it overweight semiconductors and AI-adjacent growth names just as that group sold off hardest. Stocks fell at the start of a busy week after the US and Iran escalated fighting in the Middle East, sending oil prices higher, and AI stocks came under pressure. Memory stocks dipped after SK Hynix plunged in South Korea, as investors sold off following a brokerage report suggesting it may not meet its quarterly profit estimates, dragging on peers including Micron and Seagate.

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended July 10-13, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.93% this week versus +1.28% for SPY, a roughly 65bp edge across 50 holdings. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week, so the model's outperformance came largely from stock selection rather than beta.

Drivers: Momentum names in tech and industrials led Friday's session, with gains led by Nvidia (3.91%), Nike (3.74%) and Cisco Systems (2.53%)

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reflects rising geopolitical and inflation risk; the model is favoring defense over offense heading into a heavy news week.

Conviction: 54.1/100 With Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures down 0.89% and 0.23% respectively at 5:38 a.m. ET, a conviction score just above the midpoint and only 16% of stocks in high-conviction territory suggests the model sees a mixed, uncertain setup rather than a broad tailwind or headwind.

On the calendar today Light on data — 2:00 p.m. ET brings the Treasury Budget for June, with Fastenal reporting earnings. The bigger catalysts loom later this week: Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday and Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, and Q2 earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo reporting Tuesday. June CPI is expected to slow below 4% from May's three-year high of 4.2%, while core CPI is forecast to hold at 2.9%, the highest since last September.

Overnight & premarket

The US and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes over the weekend amid persistent tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil rose on shipping-disruption concerns, with WTI up 1.67% to $72.85 and Brent near $77.38. Memory stocks fell sharply after SK Hynix plunged, dragging the Kospi down 9% and triggering a market-wide trading halt. The Nikkei dropped 1.92% to 67,242 while Europe's DAX and FTSE were roughly flat.

What to watch 1) Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and its effect on oil/energy stocks. 2) Positioning ahead of Tuesday's bank earnings and CPI print. 3) Follow-through in semiconductor/memory names after the Korea-driven selloff.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 10, 2026

Portfolio vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio slipped -0.51% while SPY gained +0.43%, a roughly 94bp underperformance day despite the model sitting in a RISK_ON regime with conviction at 54.5 (16.5% of the 1,000-stock universe screening high-conviction).

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector positioning. The Materials, Financials and Consumer Discretionary sector SPDRs fell 2.6%, 1.9% and 1.8%, while Information Technology and Energy rose 1.2% and 1.8%. QNTM's rules-based screen leans on quality/value signals that had rotated into cyclicals and financials ahead of next week's bank earnings — exactly the groups that got sold today — while underweighting the mega-cap AI names that carried the tape. Meta Platforms rose after Zuckerberg announced a new cloud business, answering investors who'd questioned the payoff from its AI capex, and Micron advanced 4.5% — both underrepresented in the model's diversified 50-name book, capping upside capture.

Market recap: The Dow rose 0.3% to 52,478.41, the Nasdaq gained 1.3% to 26,206.89, and the S&P 500 added 0.8% to 7,543.64. Weekly jobless claims fell to 215,000, below estimates. Oil briefly popped on Trump comments about the Iran ceasefire before resuming its decline, consistent with today's war de-escalation tailwind and VIX near 15.3.

What's next: Watch bank earnings kicking off next week and whether the tech/cyclical rotation extends — a key test

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime overlay reads Mildly Bullish, with VIX near 15.8 signaling low hedging demand — a backdrop still favorable for risk-taking, though not stretched.

Conviction: 54.6/100 Conviction sits at 54.6, with 16.7% of the ~1,000-name scored universe flagged high-conviction — a modestly constructive but unspectacular signal, consistent with a market grinding higher without broad-based enthusiasm.

On the calendar today No major U.S. data releases are scheduled; "there are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Friday, June 10" (per Kiplinger's July calendar). Earnings-wise, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is expected to report this morning. The main corporate event is SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut, seen as a test for the AI trade amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz monitoring.

Overnight & premarket Futures are mixed: Dow futures gained 0.2%, S&P 500 futures were roughly flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2% after Thursday's rally. Asian markets were mixed — Nikkei up, Shanghai down, Hang Seng up — while Europe's DAX and FTSE 100 edged higher. Gold fell 0.62% to $4,115.20/oz while WTI crude rose slightly to $72.14/barrel.

What to watch 1) SK Hynix's record-setting IPO — the largest US listing ever by a foreign company — as a bellwether for AI/chip sentiment. 2) Delta's earnings for read-through on travel demand. 3) Middle East headlines, given the war-deescalation tag against a backdrop of recent Strait of Hormuz flare-ups.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 9, 2026

The model portfolio returned +2.5% today vs. +0.83% for SPY — a ~3x outperformance, with the RISK_ON regime flag active and conviction at 54.8 (17.9% of the 1,000-name scored universe rated high-conviction).

What drove it: The model's 50-stock book is concentrated, and today's dispersion favored that concentration. A resurgence in giant chipmakers powered a rebound on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq 100 adding 1.6% and a gauge of semiconductor firms climbing 4%, as traders looked past fresh Middle East hostilities. Micron plans to increase US plant spending to $250 billion to meet AI-driven demand, and SK Hynix's US listing was reportedly more than seven times oversubscribed — both fueling the chip rally. A 50-name book with meaningful semiconductor/tech-momentum weight captures more of that move than SPY's broader 500-stock spread, explaining the gap.

Market recap: Oil reversed lower after Wednesday's spike, easing the inflation scare tied to the Iran-related "ceasefire is over" headlines. Volatility eased too (VIX ~15.9), consistent with the war de-escalation tag. This followed a choppy Wednesday when the Dow fell 1.1% on renewed Mideast tension and hawkish Fed minutes — June FOMC minutes confirmed a hawkish stance, emphasizing data dependence over forward guidance.

What's next: Markets turn to Thursday's jobless claims, existing home sales, and PepsiCo earnings, with June CPI due July 14 — a key test for the Fed's hawkish tilt. This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's overlay reads NEUTRAL — consistent with a tape torn between fresh geopolitical risk and a still-resilient AI/tech bid.

Conviction: 54.4/100 A mid-range score with 1000 names scored and 16% flagged high-conviction — modestly constructive but not a broad "risk-on" signal; leadership remains narrow.

On the calendar today Data: weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at 8:30 AM ET, plus existing home sales at 10:00 AM ET. Earnings before the open include PepsiCo (PEP), which posted Q2 core EPS of $2.20 vs. consensus $2.19, with revenue up 6.4% y/y to $24.18B, and backed its full-year outlook. Treasury sells $22B in 30-year notes at 1:00 PM ET.

Overnight & premarket Futures were mixed-to-firmer as stock futures were mixed while investors weighed the latest developments in the Middle East, after the U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran and Tehran responded by targeting Gulf countries. Polymarket traders implied an 85% probability of a higher S&P open, even as the Middle East escalation drove a sharp rally in crude and revived inflation concerns. June Fed minutes showed policymakers still divided on the rate path. Chipmakers were volatile after a rough stretch, while SK Hynix's US offering priced with demand near seven times available shares.

What to watch 1) Oil/crude follow-through on Iran headlines. 2) Jobless claims vs. Fed-minutes-driven rate expectations. 3) Semiconductor stabilization after recent SOX weakness.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned -0.35% today, trailing the SPY benchmark's -0.24% by 11bps — a modest but real gap in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: markets digested a sharp reescalation in US-Iran tensions after American forces carried out strikes against Iran late Tuesday in response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was over. That hit sentiment broadly, but the model's growth/quality tilt was pinched: names like Palo Alto Networks fell 5.2%, DoorDash declined 5%, and Palantir Technologies slipped 4.7% — the type of high-momentum software/tech names QNTM's screens favor. Meanwhile energy and select networking/AI infrastructure names ( Broadcom rose 4.5%, Baker Hughes advanced 4.1%, and Nebius Group gained 3.8% ) helped the cap-weighted SPY relatively more, since oil-linked and mega-cap semis carry heavier index weight than model exposure.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell 0.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.14%, and the Nasdaq gave up 0.50% intraday before paring; by the close the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% while the Nasdaq trimmed losses

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_ON, built on a "war de-escalation" macro tag from recent weeks — a call that's being stress-tested by fresh geopolitical headlines breaking right into the open.

Conviction: 55.1/100 Across 1,000 names scored, the mean composite sits modestly above neutral, with only 18.8% of stocks screening high-conviction — a mildly constructive but narrow-breadth setup, not a broad "all clear."

On the calendar today Minutes from June's FOMC meeting — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — are due Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for hints on the Fed's plans for interest rates. Futures markets are pricing a 72.7% likelihood the Fed holds rates steady in July. No major economic prints or bank earnings are due today; CPI and Q2 bank results land next week.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures fell as oil surged and President Trump declared that the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran was "over," with Dow futures down nearly 600 points and Nasdaq 100 futures off 1.3%. Crude jumped more than 6.5% to $75/barrel and Brent rose over 6% to near $79.

I have enough now to write the wrap.

## QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Model vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio fell -1.66% today, more than triple SPY's -0.50% decline. Conviction across the 1,000-name scored universe sat at a middling 54.7, with only 17.6% of names flagged high-conviction — a regime QNTM classifies as NEUTRAL, offering no strong directional tailwind.

What drove it: The gap versus SPY points to concentrated exposure in semiconductors and AI-hardware names, the session's clear laggards. Stocks fell Tuesday after Samsung's quarterly results and reports that China's DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip triggered renewed selling in the semiconductor sector. Samsung's decline exacerbated a nearly 20% drop in South Korea's KOSPI, which has become an overnight barometer for U.S. chip stocks. That spilled into computer-hardware and industrials names broadly, per weakness in technology — namely semiconductor and computer hardware — as well as industrials during the session. A model tilted toward those pockets would have absorbed outsized damage versus the more diversified SPY.

Market recap: The Dow ticked down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. Elsewhere, health care, energy, and comm services held up while tech continued to slide, and Bloomberg reported the U.S. revoked a waiver allowing Iran to sell oil following strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — a still-developing story adding energy-sector crosscurrents. On the corporate side, Vertex's $10B bid for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals drove one of the day's biggest single-stock pops.

What's next: With conviction near neutral and no major scheduled catalysts, watch whether chip-sector jitters persist into Wednesday's trade or fade like prior AI-trade pullbacks this cycle.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's regime overlay reads NEUTRAL — no strong momentum or risk-off signal dominating the model, consistent with a market digesting record highs rather than trending hard either way.

Conviction: 55.3/100 A mid-range score with 18.9% of the 1,000-name scored universe in high-conviction territory per QNTM's data — modest bullish tilt, not a broad "all-clear" across the tape.

On the calendar today No major scheduled US data or Fed speeches stand out this morning. The bigger structural event: index-tracking funds began purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7, with J.P. Morgan estimating roughly $4.3 billion in passive investment flowing into SPCX shares as index funds rebalance.

Overnight & premarket This follows Monday's record session where the Nasdaq (+1.12%) and S&P 500 (+0.72%) saw the biggest leaps on the backs of tech, financials, and industrials. Overnight, sentiment reversed: futures tied to the tech-heavy index were down 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.2%; Dow futures edged higher by 0.3%, as Micron was last seen 5% lower in premarket, with KLA and Marvell also weak. Asia sold off hard: South Korea's Kospi led declines, closing 4.91% lower after the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker on an intraday drop over 8%. Oil ticked up on renewed Middle East tensions after a tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz.

What to watch 1) Whether chip-stock weakness (Micron, KLA, Marvell) spreads or stays contained. 2) SPCX's first day inside the Nasdaq-100 and QQQ flows. 3) Strait of Hormuz tanker incident and follow-through in oil/energy names.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 6, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.13% today versus +0.86% for SPY, a ~27bp edge on a session where the regime overlay flagged "mildly bullish" with a war-de-escalation tailwind. Conviction across the 1,000-name scored universe held at 55.5, with 20.1% of names flagged high-conviction — consistent with a broad but selective risk-on tape.

What drove it: The model's edge tracked the day's real leadership — chips and broad tech. Stocks maintained positive momentum, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and Nasdaq Composite up 1.1% as tech stocks rose broadly and the Dow topped 53,000 for the first time. The Technology Select Sector SPDR climbed 2%, led by a 7% jump in Western Digital and a 2% gain in Teradyne, with Marvell and Oracle also up around 2%. Semis extended their bounce as a rally in several technology powerhouses lifted stocks amid speculation the AI trade has more room to run, halting a back-to-back chip selloff. A 50-name, quality/momentum-tilted model naturally overweights that kind of concentrated leadership relative to cap-weighted SPY.

Macro backdrop: Crude was mixed as investors digested OPEC+'s move to raise August production, with the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopening amid the US-Iran ceasefire. SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion tomorrow also drew index-flow attention.

What's next: FOMC minutes Wednesday could reshape the rate-path narrative — a key input for QNTM's regime overlay.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime overlay reads Mildly Bullish for the July 6 session — consistent with a market riding record highs into the holiday-shortened week but still digesting last week's rotation out of pricey AI/semiconductor names.

Conviction: 55.7/100 Conviction sits at 55.7 out of 100 across 1,000 scored names, with 21.1% of the universe flagged high-conviction — a moderately constructive but not exuberant tape, suggesting selectivity rather than broad-based enthusiasm.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting today — the next Fed meeting is July 28–29. The Fed's benchmark stays at 3.50%–3.75% after June's hold. Friday's holiday-delayed jobs data still looms large: the economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, well short of the 115,000 expected, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%.

Overnight & premarket

The Dow jumped 1.1% Friday to a record 52,900.07, touching an intraday all-time high, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.8% on weak AI semiconductor performance. Premarket, S&P futures were up 0.45%, Dow futures roughly flat, and Nasdaq futures up 1.14%, with the VIX up 3.29% to 16.33. Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA led S&P premarket gainers after Morgan Stanley price-target hikes. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.4

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 4, 2026

No session today. July 4 fell on a Saturday, and US exchanges observed the holiday on Friday, July 3, so the NYSE and Nasdaq were closed, with no regular trading in US stocks or ETFs and no standard session for major indices. That's why QNTM's model portfolio and SPY both printed flat (model: -0.0%, SPY: 0.0%) — there was simply no tape to trade.

Why the RISK_OFF tag anyway: QNTM's regime overlay carries forward the "war_escalation" flag tied to the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict, which has kept volatility elevated across recent sessions even as headlines cycle between strikes and diplomacy. Tensions in the Middle East flared again over the weekend, but markets appeared largely unfazed, with investors instead turning attention to a tech recovery rally heading into the holiday. Conviction sat at 55.3 with only 20.4% of the ~1,000-name universe scored high-conviction — a cautious, unremarkable reading consistent with a market pausing rather than trending.

Last real session (Thursday, July 2): Most US stocks climbed toward the finish of a winning week, but drops for tech kept indexes mixed. Chip names stayed choppy after

QNTM Day Wrap — July 3, 2026

No trading today. U.S. equity markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday (observed Friday since July 4 falls on a Saturday), so there was no regular session for U.S. stocks, ETFs, or major benchmark indices such as the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. That's why both the QNTM model portfolio and SPY show a flat 0.0% return today — there was simply no market to move in or out of step with. Conviction sits at 55.3 (neutral, in line with the model's NEUTRAL regime call), with 20.4% of the 1,000-name scored universe rated high-conviction — a middling reading consistent with a market in wait-and-see mode.

What actually happened Thursday (last session before the break): Markets got a fresh read on the labor market via the June jobs report, released ahead of Thursday's open. Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by 57,000, slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 consensus forecast, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, largely due to a slump in the labor force participation rate. Reaction was mixed: the Dow hit a record high near 52,900 while the Nasdaq dropped roughly 0.8% as chip stocks extended a sell-off, and futures rose as traders eased expectations for a September rate hike.

Next up: Markets reopen Monday, July 6. Investors will focus on key economic data, Fed signals, and whether AI and semiconductor stocks can regain momentum after last week's weakness. Educational only — not investment advice.

QNTM Post-Close Wrap — July 2, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -2.58% today, badly trailing SPY's -0.13% — a rare gap versus benchmark for a 50-name book with conviction sitting at a neutral 55.6 (20.1% of the universe scored high-conviction).

What drove it: Concentration in Technology (15 of 50 holdings) was the culprit, averaging -6.98%, with Industrials (5 names) adding another -4.81% drag. Model laggards were dominated by memory/chip-equipment names: SNDK (-14.1%), KLAC (-11.5%), LRCX (-10.2%), WDC (-9.9%), and construction name STRL (-9.8%). This tracks a real rotation: investors continued to rotate out of high-flying semiconductor stocks, with SanDisk tumbling 10.6% and Applied Materials plummeting 10%, extending a second-day slide in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, down 4.5%, led by declines in Teradyne and KLA. SNDK's drop reflected profit-taking after a huge run and investor anxiety over capacity-expansion announcements from Samsung and SK Hynix threatening a NAND supply glut. STRL's slide fits a broader valuation reset in stretched data-center/infrastructure names. Financials (JEF, ALL, VCTR) and Healthcare (DVA) partly offset losses.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,483.23, with tech the worst performer while communication services and financials led. ADP reported private payrolls rose just 98,000 in June, below the 110,000 consensus, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have eased substantially.

Next: Markets are closed July 3 for the holiday; watch Thursday's jobs report reaction on reopen.