Market Outlook

QNTM Day Wrap — September 10, 2026

The model portfolio slipped 0.54% today, modestly outpacing SPY's 0.60% decline — a rare case where a RISK_OFF regime and rock-bottom conviction (48.6/100, only 2.5% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction") actually helped relative performance rather than hurt it.

What drove it: The drag came from broad-based risk-off pressure, not a single sector blowup. A sharp decline in technology shares and a spike in energy costs dampened sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading the decline and the Technology sector SPDR dropping 1.3% as investors rotated out of high-growth names. With the model's five-pillar screen already tilted defensively under the current regime overlay, its lighter momentum/growth-tech exposure limited losses versus SPY's tech-heavy weighting. Meanwhile the Energy sector SPDR advanced 1.1%, a tailwind for any energy holdings as WTI held near $102.59.

Market recap: The Dow lost 0.8% to close at 52,380.66, the Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 26,253.34, and the S&P 500 slid 0.5% to 7,636.36. The catalyst was a hotter-than-expected inflation print: producer prices jumped 0.4% in August as the war in Iran lifted wholesale energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.845%, its highest since November 2023. Traders are now pricing a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, up from 62% before the data.

What's next: Friday's CPI report is the next major catalyst ahead of next week's FOMC decision — expect volatility to stay elevated. This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's macro overlay sits in neutral territory — no strong tailwind or headwind signal, consistent with a market pinned between inflation risk and steady growth data.

Conviction: 48.8/100 A composite near the midpoint, with only 2.6% of the 1,422-name universe screening "high conviction" — the model sees a broadly balanced, low-clarity tape rather than a clear directional edge.

On the calendar today

August Producer Price Index data is due at 8:30 am ET, with headline PPI M/M estimated at +0.4% (prior 0.0%) and Y/Y +5.3%; core PPI M/M est. +0.3%, Y/Y +4.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims and August existing home sales are also scheduled for release this morning. The European Central Bank holds its policy meeting later this morning, with a rate hike widely expected. The FOMC's pre-meeting "quiet period" continues through September 17 ahead of the Sept. 15–16 meeting. Corporate news flow includes Wealthfront's Q2 report, an Axogen acquisition announcement, and an FDA-related setback for Biohaven.

Overnight & premarket

Futures are mixed after Wednesday's third straight decline — Dow +125 (0.24%), S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq -0.21%. Treasury yields have climbed to 3-year highs, with the 10-yr above 4.85%, while Brent crude sits above $102/bbl amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.

What to watch 1) PPI surprise vs. elevated inflation expectations heading into Friday's CPI; 2) ECB decision and any spillover to rates/dollar; 3) Oil/yield trajectory — both near multi-year highs and a persistent drag on risk appetite.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 9, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell 0.17% today, outperforming SPY's 0.45% decline by 28 basis points. QNTM's regime engine flagged RISK_OFF conditions, with conviction across the 1,422-name scored universe sitting at just 48.8 (only 2.7% of names screened high-conviction) — a defensively postured backdrop the 50-stock model was already leaning into.

What drove it: Today's tape punished energy-sensitive and rate-sensitive cyclicals, but also lifted energy itself. Energy and utility stocks were the only sector gainers, while industrials and consumer cyclicals fell the most. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July as tensions in the Middle East escalate again, and 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.81% as oil prices raised concerns ahead of this week's CPI and PPI data. QNTM's model likely benefited from lighter industrials/discretionary exposure and any energy tilt, avoiding the brunt of the cyclical drawdown that hit the broader SPY.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.4-0.6% intraday while the Dow dropped over 390-400 points, per tradingeconomics data showing the index down 0.58% with the Dow dropping 396 points. Adding to the risk-off mood, the US-Canada trade dispute escalated further, with Washington banning certain Canadian dairy and alcohol imports and limiting government procurement access, while the US-Iran conflict flared with US missile strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian retaliation against US positions in Jordan. Notable single-name divergence: Meta jumped on positive reaction to its new AI agent, Muse, while Casey's General Stores fell almost 15% despite an earnings beat.

What's next: Markets stay focused on incoming CPI/PPI inflation data and any de-escalation signals on both the tariff and Iran fronts — both key inputs for QNTM's macro-regime overlay.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, and the tape agrees: escalating US-Iran conflict is overriding fundamentals, with defensive positioning likely to dominate the session.

Conviction: 49.1/100 A near-neutral composite across QNTM's ~1,422-stock universe, with only 2.8% scoring "high conviction" — the model sees a genuinely uncertain, thin-opportunity backdrop rather than any clear direction.

On the calendar today No major US data releases are scheduled for Wednesday, September 9. There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Wednesday, September 9. Markets are instead positioning ahead of Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI. The BLS will release the PPI report before Thursday's opening bell and the CPI report before Friday's opening bell. The FOMC is in its blackout period ahead of the Sept 15-16 meeting. A notable non-economic event: Apple's iPhone launch event is later this afternoon.

Overnight & premarket US futures pointed lower, with the Dow down 266 points (0.50%), S&P 500 down 24.25 (0.32%), and Nasdaq down 138 (0.47%). Overnight, CENTCOM said forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers after the IRGC targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days, though Central Command dismissed reports Iranian forces had hit its warships, calling the claim "completely FALSE." Brent is testing $100 while the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest closing level since 2023, around 4.82%. Overseas, Nikkei rose 0.6% on tech/AI stocks, Hang Seng fell 0.2%, and the ASX200 hit a fresh six-week low.

What to watch 1) Any headline escalation/de-escalation in the Iran conflict — oil and yields are the transmission mechanism into equities. 2) Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, now the key inputs for the Sept 15-16 FOMC decision. 3) Apple's product event and semiconductor names, which have been offsetting some of the macro drag.

QNTM Day Wrap — September 8, 2026

The model portfolio (50 holdings) returned -0.66% today, essentially in line with SPY's -0.62%, a modest ~4bp shortfall. QNTM's regime flag stayed RISK_OFF, even as VIX held a relatively calm 15.6.

What drove it: The tape was pressured by a fast-moving mix of tariff and geopolitical headlines. Oil prices extended gains on reports Yemen's Houthis attacked four cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze, pushing WTI to $93.64 in QNTM's feed. Separately, Canada followed through Tuesday on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, hitting dairy, furniture, appliances and other categories with levies from 15% to 50%. Mega-cap tech was a laggard — losses were led by Apple (-2.55%), Alphabet (-2.10%) and Microsoft (-2.05%) — while top gainers were Caterpillar (1.65%), Honeywell International (0.95%) and Home Depot (0.88%), an energy/industrial tilt consistent with oil-driven rotation. Healthcare also came under pressure after Amgen fell 8% and shares were pressured after Novartis' cholesterol drug failed in a closely watched study, raising concerns for Amgen's experimental cholesterol drug. QNTM's model tracked SPY closely, suggesting no major sector bet paid off or hurt meaningfully today.

Broader tape: The S&P 500 fell to 7,707, down 0.15% on the session, a quiet finish given the volatile headline flow.

Next: Markets shift focus to this week's CPI and PPI prints for inflation confirmation.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a fitting stance given crossed signals: Middle East military escalation is pushing oil sharply higher even as US-brokered Russia-Ukraine diplomacy offers a partial offset. Net effect: elevated macro uncertainty despite calm-looking VIX (15.7).

Conviction: 49.3/100 A near-neutral reading across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.2% at "high conviction." This signals the model sees a balanced, low-consensus tape — not a broad tailwind or headwind for stocks.

On the calendar today NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00 AM ET); 3-year Treasury note auction (1:00 PM ET). The FOMC "quiet period" ahead of the September 15-16 meeting began September 5 and runs through September 17, so no Fed speakers today. Several early-morning earnings reports are on deck (ABM, CAN, UNFI).

Overnight & premarket

U.S. futures are mixed, with Dow futures down over 300 points while Brent crude approaches $100 a barrel after Saudi energy facility operations were halted following Houthi attacks; the 10-year Treasury yield trades near 4.80%. Oil climbed further after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of US goods take effect today. Novartis shares are down sharply after two failed drug studies, pressuring AMGN, LLY, IONS, DYN and SRPT.

What to watch 1) Oil-driven inflation-expectations move as Brent nears $100. 2) Follow-through on Canada tariff retaliation and any trade-policy headlines. 3) Whether Ukraine diplomacy headlines offset Middle East risk premium.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended September 5, 2026

QNTM's model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +1.64% this week versus +0.41% for SPY, a roughly 1.2-point edge. The five-pillar composite averaged 49.2 across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.1% flagged high-conviction — a mildly bullish regime, but thin breadth under the surface.

What drove it: Energy-linked and momentum names carried the book as WTI crude rose to $91.48 a barrel as of September 1, up from $87.03, a gain of more than 5% on the week, tied to renewed US-Iran friction earlier in the week before signals of de-escalation. Fintech/momentum exposure was a standout — Robinhood Markets led gainers with a 16.9% weekly advance — while a quality/value holding lagged after Fair Isaac led decliners, falling 18.67% amid rate-hike anxiety hitting credit-sensitive names. Individual stocks swung by double digits in both directions even as the index barely moved.

Macro backdrop: Friday's jobs report was the week's hinge — jobs growth surged to 162,000 in August with unemployment steady at 4.1%, versus expectations of 45,000 to 55,000, pushing yields higher and rate-hike odds up. QNTM's low VIX (14.5) reflects the war-de-escalation tailwind offsetting that hawkish jolt.

Next week: Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day; September 10 brings the ECB decision, PPI data, and earnings from Oracle, Macy's and Adobe, followed by August CPI on September 11 — the last major data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 4, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned ‑0.51% today, trailing the SPY benchmark's ‑0.41% by about 10 basis points — a modest but real gap given the model's more concentrated, 50-name book.

What drove it: The divergence traces to the model's tilt toward higher-beta growth and consumer-discretionary names, which bore the brunt of today's rate-hike repricing. Tesla shares dropped more than 6% Friday after the electric-vehicle maker's Cybercab launch left analysts with more questions than answers, and Lululemon plummeted on disappointing results — both name-specific hits that likely weighed on model holdings more than on the broader cap-weighted SPY, which had cushioning from defensive sectors. Conviction sat at a middling 49.4 across 1,422 scored names, with just 3.2% flagged high-conviction — a thin opportunity set typical of a choppy, data-driven session.

Market recap: The Dow fell 0.5% (272 points) and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%, after nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 in August, much more than the 53,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and Treasury yields rose as fed funds futures traders priced in a roughly 58% chance of a September rate hike. The VIX stayed low near 14.3, and WTI crude eased to $91.50, consistent with the session's "good news is bad news" tone.

What's next: Markets shift focus to next week's CPI/PPI data, key inputs for the Fed's September decision. Markets closed Monday, Sept. 7 for Labor Day.

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's overlay reads mildly bullish, consistent with a market drifting to fresh short-term highs even as tariff and Middle East headlines linger in the background.

Conviction: 48.9/100 A near-midpoint score across 1,422 names, with only 2.7% flagged high-conviction — breadth is thin even though the macro backdrop is constructive.

On the calendar today

The August 2026 US jobs report lands Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus around a rebound after nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against a Dow Jones consensus of +83,000. With rates at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025, the question is whether the FOMC hikes on September 16; a weak report would reduce near-term hike odds. US stock and bond markets will be closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.5% ahead of the data. Oil pulled back from recent highs, with WTI falling 0.82% to $90.55 and Brent slipping to $95.04. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.818% this week, a level not seen since November 2023, though it's eased on dovish Fed commentary.

What to watch 1) Payrolls reaction — a strong print could raise hike odds instead of the usual relief rally; 2) any further Iran-related oil swings; 3) whether low VIX (14.15) masks the market's narrow conviction breadth.

QNTM Post-Close Wrap — Thursday, September 3, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.48% today, outpacing SPY's +1.04% by roughly 44 bps. The model's 50-name book, running in a "mildly bullish" regime with conviction at 49.5 (only 3.7% of the 1,422-name universe scored high-conviction), leaned into the session's AI/momentum leadership.

What drove it: The tape's biggest single-name catalysts were Nvidia, which gained on news that it will acquire artificial intelligence (AI) platform Hugging Face, and Snowflake, whose stock soared over 20% this morning after a blowout quarter. A model with AI/software exposure captured that momentum. On the drag side, Broadcom shares dropped, despite beating analyst expectations in yesterday's earnings, a reminder that even solid results can lag when guidance disappoints — a headwind for any tech-heavy sleeve holding it.

Market recap: All three major stock indexes ended in positive territory, with the Dow advancing 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rising on solid AI-stock performance. Nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher, led by Materials and Communications. Fed Governor Waller said he'd lean toward holding rates steady unless there are major inflation surprises, contrasting with Chairman Warsh's inflation-hawk stance. Meanwhile, oil rose after U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats revived Middle East supply concerns, keeping WTI near $91-92 — the war-escalation flag QNTM tracked today.

Next: All eyes turn to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, then a holiday-shortened week and the Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH for the session, with VIX at a subdued 15.38 — a sign that despite months of Iran-related headline risk, options markets aren't pricing near-term panic.

Conviction: 48.9/100 The average composite across QNTM's scored universe sits right at the midpoint, with only 3.4% of the 1,421 names screened flagging as high-conviction — a signal of a stock-picker's market rather than a broad, one-way trend.

On the calendar today

August ISM Services PMI and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN) and lululemon (LULU) headline the day. Economists look for the Services PMI at 56.8 versus 54.6 prior, alongside Initial Jobless Claims expected at 205K versus 203K prior. August nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate follow tomorrow, September 4.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were mixed as investors reacted to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields. That comes after the S&P 500 and Dow jumped Wednesday after back-to-back losing days. WTI sits near $92, consistent with QNTM's macro tag pointing to a partial de-escalation in Middle East tensions overnight.

What to watch 1) ISM Services PMI — a beat could ease growth worries; 2) Any fresh Iran headlines given oil's sensitivity; 3) Lululemon/Ciena earnings as early reads on consumer and networking demand ahead of Friday's jobs report.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 2, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.82% today, roughly double SPY's +0.41% gain. With only 50 holdings versus SPY's 500+, the model's concentrated stance amplified today's move.

What drove it: Wednesday's advance was a mega-cap tech and financials story. Stocks rose as Treasury yields took a breather from their recent run-up, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each advancing 0.5% and the Dow adding about 295 points, boosted by Nvidia and Johnson & Johnson. Technology companies and banks led the gains after elevated yields had hampered credit-sensitive industries, with Meta jumping 2.5%, Wells Fargo surging 3%, Nvidia climbing nearly 5% on reports it's nearing a $14 billion Hugging Face acquisition, and Dell soaring up to 10% after beating earnings and raising guidance. A concentrated, quality/momentum-tilted book with exposure to these names would plausibly explain today's ~40bp edge over the broad-market SPY.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.818% Wednesday — a level not seen since November 2023 — with yields also rising in the U.K., Germany and France. ADP reported private payrolls added just 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest since January. WTI crude settled up almost 1% near $91.01/barrel. QNTM's regime signal stayed NEUTRAL, VIX near 15, and conviction sat at 49.0 with only 3.6% of the 1,422-stock universe rated high-conviction.

What's next: Markets await a wave of after-hours tech earnings and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for direction. This is research, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF — a defensive backdrop where the model favors quality and low-volatility factors over pure momentum chasing.

Conviction: 48.8/100 A near-midpoint reading with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe hitting high-conviction status signals broad-based caution rather than a clear buy or sell signal across the tape.

On the calendar today

September 2: ADP August nonfarm employment, July factory orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO), Snowflake (SNOW), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), NetApp (NTAP), and Five Below (FIVE).

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were falling as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran boosted oil prices and sent bond yields higher. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield hit a high of 4.814% on the day, its highest level since November 2023. Gold futures fell 0.94% to $4,355 an ounce in early trading. Tuesday's session saw the S&P 500 and the Dow fall up to 0.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 2%.

What to watch 1) Iran conflict headlines — oil prices are climbing due to renewed military clashes between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns about crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

2) The Beige Book and Fed commentary for hawkish signals amid rising yields. 3) Canada's retaliatory tariffs, confirmed at 15%, 25%, or 50% on more than 700 US-origin products, scheduled to take effect September 8, 2026, keep trade-war risk in focus alongside after-hours tech earnings.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — September 1, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.44% today, outperforming SPY's -0.69% decline by 25 basis points — a rare case of the model's defensive posture paying off in a down session.

What drove it: QNTM's macro-regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF ahead of the open, trimming exposure heading into a session dominated by two shocks flagged in our system — "fed_hawkish" and "war_escalation." That defensive tilt likely spared the model from the worst of today's tech selloff: the Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 1%, with crude surging and stocks diving early as investors monitored overnight attacks on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with tech taking the brunt of the blow, especially chip stocks. Conviction across the scored universe (1,422 names) sat at just 48.8, with only 3.2% of stocks screening high-conviction — signaling broad model caution, not a bet on any single name.

Market recap: Inflation worries and elevated oil prices lifted bond yields, raising concern about whether the Fed will tighten policy later this month. U.S. crude gained 5.2% to $90.22/barrel while Brent added 4.6% to $94.65, and odds of a September rate hike hit 66%, up from 40% a week ago.

What's next: Watch upcoming job-openings and manufacturing data, plus any de-escalation headlines out of the Middle East, for the next directional cue.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime flag is set to Risk-Off, with VIX at 15.8 and WTI crude at $87.76. Read: volatility itself is contained, but energy prices and macro headline risk (tariffs, war escalation) are doing the work of tightening financial conditions.

Conviction: 49.4/100 A near-coin-flip average across 1,422 scored names, with just 3.4% rated high-conviction. This implies the model sees little broad-based opportunity today — signals are scattered rather than concentrated, consistent with a defensive tape.

On the calendar today Heavy data morning: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (~9:45 AM ET), ISM Manufacturing PMI for August at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, and JOLTS job openings, also at 10:00 AM ET. No FOMC meeting today, but bond markets are pricing rate-hike risk.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were falling and oil prices were rising amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers, one Saudi and one South Korean-owned, were hit by projectiles Monday night. Microsoft, Palantir, Alphabet, and Tesla dropped up to 1% premarket, while banks and credit providers also fell, with JPMorgan and Visa down 0.7%.

What to watch 1) ISM Prices Index and new-orders component for tariff/oil pass-through signals. 2) Any Strait of Hormuz shipping/escalation headlines. 3) 10-year yield reaction to JOLTS — the 10Y yield remains elevated near 4.76%, keeping the macro backdrop less friendly for duration-sensitive equities.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, August 31, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.25% today while SPY fell -0.29% — a roughly 54-bp gap in a session where the broad market leaned risk-off.

What drove it: Ten of 11 S&P sectors finished negative, with only one in the green — consistent with energy being the standout as U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, prompting Iranian retaliatory claims against U.S. bases, which drove crude above $85 and pushed 10-year Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025. Tech was a laggard: the Nasdaq slipped 0.5% on weak AI-stock performance, with PayPal the biggest loser after a reported buyout deal fell through. QNTM's model, built on a five-pillar composite rather than cap-weighted tech exposure, wasn't leaning on that crowded AI trade today — a structural difference that helped it avoid the session's sharpest drawdowns. Conviction sits at a neutral 49.0 across 1,422 names, with only 3.2% flagged high-conviction, signaling narrow, selective leadership rather than a broad "buy everything" signal.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,711.76, the Dow dropped 0.9% (464 points) to 53,885.10, snapping a win streak. Chicago PMI came in at 47.1, well below the 58 estimate and down from 57.6 in July. VIX ticked up modestly but stayed contained near 15.

What's next: Watch for any follow-through on Middle East headlines and this week's labor-market data, which could reset Fed rate-path expectations.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flipped defensive as oil-supply shock and hawkish Fed rhetoric collide — a combination that historically compresses risk appetite even with VIX still contained near 15.

Conviction: 49.3/100 A near-neutral reading (3.4% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction") signals the model sees few clean long setups today — consistent with a market digesting geopolitical and rate-hike risk simultaneously rather than trending decisively either way.

On the calendar today Monday, August 31 is quiet on the data front, with no major U.S. releases. Markets are still absorbing Friday's Jackson Hole fallout, where Warsh at Jackson Hole gave a more hawkish reading of the economy than he had in July, and fed funds futures now imply odds of a September hike rising to about 60% from 35%. The heavier data (ISM, JOLTS, ADP, nonfarm payrolls) lands later this week, with the economy expected to have added 45,000 jobs in August, following an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July.

Overnight & premarket

Oil jumped in early Asia trading as Middle East tensions accelerated, after the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, ending weeks of relative calm. Energy stocks rose, with U.S. oil prices up more than 3% and Halliburton up more than 2.5% and Chevron up 2% in premarket trading. China's August manufacturing PMI shrank for a second straight month, coming in at 49.8 versus 49.2 in July, though better than the 49.6 forecast. S&P futures were soft after Friday's 0.3% decline.

What to watch 1) Headline risk from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation and its pass-through to oil (WTI ~$86) and energy-sector rotation. 2) PG&E sank 16% after California lawmakers blocked wildfire-liability legislation, prompting several Wall Street downgrades — a read on utility-sector liability risk broadly. 3) Fed-speak and rate-hike repricing ahead of Friday's jobs report, which could swing the RISK_OFF regime either direction.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, Aug 28, 2026

QNTM's 50-name model slipped -0.32% today, trailing SPY's -0.20% by 12 bps. The regime stayed "Mildly Bullish," but conviction was tepid at 49.2/100 with only 3.3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring high-conviction — a market with few standout signals.

What drove it: The gap traces to the model's momentum/quality tilt getting caught on the wrong side of a volatile session. Stocks edged lower as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first speech at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, saying the economy "appears to have strengthened." He also acknowledged inflation is running hot, saying "while this summer's [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." That hawkish framing hit rate-sensitive and richly-valued growth pockets hardest — the same names momentum screens tend to overweight. Real-world dispersion was stark: PayPal fell over 12% and IREN dropped more than 13%, while Amazon jumped 3.34% on separate catalysts. Broader tape action showed gold slipping, the 10-year yield ticking up to 4.70%, with communication services leading sector gains while industrials and healthcare lagged — a mixed, rotation-heavy backdrop that's tough for concentrated factor tilts.

Macro backdrop: Broad tariff headlines and a partial Middle East war de-escalation added cross-currents alongside the Fed. VIX stayed low (14.4), signaling contained fear despite the hawkish tone.

What's next: Next week's labor data and any follow-through on Warsh's inflation language will likely set the tone — watch whether hawkish-Fed pressure broadens beyond growth names.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH — consistent with low volatility (VIX ~14.4) and a market grinding higher into a big Fed speech rather than bracing for a shock.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral reading (3.7% of the 1,422-name universe scores "high conviction") — the model sees a fairly balanced tape, not a broad green light, as traders wait on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks before committing capital.

On the calendar today The headline event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's address at Jackson Hole, with traders looking for clarity on his economic outlook and strategy for bringing inflation back to target, expected around 10:00 a.m. ET. This caps a week where the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in slightly hotter than expected in July, ahead of Warsh's speech, and Friday brings revised consumer sentiment data.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were little changed, leaving the index on course for a weekly advance, while Nasdaq 100 contracts gave back some of the gains sparked by Nvidia's blockbuster outlook. Movers: PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm; Marvell and Rubrik fell more than 7% in premarket trading, while Elastic held a roughly 20% gain on earnings.

What to watch 1) Warsh's tone on rates/inflation — any hawkish surprise could hit the low-VIX complacency. 2) Follow-through (or fade) in chip/software earnings reactions (MRVL, RBRK, ESTC, WDAY). 3) Oil (~$82.86 WTI) and tariff/geopolitical headlines given ongoing Iran de-escalation dynamics.

*Research & education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Wednesday, August 27, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.64% today, essentially matching SPY's +0.66% — a rare close-to-flat relative day in a session that was anything but flat under the surface.

What drove it: The S&P 500 rose while the average constituent fell, with one company adding roughly $435bn in market cap. That company was Nvidia, which leaped 9% higher after reporting an earnings beat and signaling strong AI demand throughout next year. Breadth was weak — ten of eleven S&P sectors traded lower, led by declines in defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples, as money rotated into semis and software behind strong earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta. With QNTM's model spread across 50 names rather than concentrated in a single mega-cap, it captured the broad tech tailwind without the outsized single-stock lift that flattered cap-weighted SPY — landing it a few basis points shy of the benchmark rather than notably ahead or behind.

Market recap: The Nasdaq rose 1.57%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.72%, and the Dow climbed about 0.2%. Wednesday's PCE data had shown inflation remained sticky heading into the Fed's Jackson Hole gathering. QNTM's conviction score sat at a neutral 49.6 with only 3.5% of the 1,422-stock universe flagged high-conviction — consistent with a mildly bullish but narrow tape.

What's next: All eyes turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for signals on the rate path amid still-elevated core inflation.

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime overlay reads mildly bullish, consistent with a VIX near 14.9 and oil holding around $82 — a backdrop of low volatility and manageable energy costs that typically favors risk-taking without excess euphoria.

Conviction: 49.5/100 A near-midpoint composite across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.0% flagged high-conviction — signal is muted and dispersion is low; no broad tailwind or headwind is dominating factor scores today.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims are due this morning. This is day one of the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29); Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote is Friday, August 28 at 10:00am ET, not today. Earnings on deck include Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Burlington Stores, Best Buy, Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Affirm Holdings, and Ulta Beauty.

Overnight & premarket

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, beating expectations, with shares reversing an initial post-earnings drop after Wednesday's close. Broader futures were pointing higher, with Dow futures up 0.25%, S&P 500 futures up 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.66%. On geopolitics, Qatar's Prime Minister is traveling to Tehran to discuss mediation and encourage a return to U.S.-Iran negotiations, aligning with the war-de-escalation macro tag.

What to watch 1) Follow-through (or fade) in NVDA and AI-capex peers after earnings. 2) Retail earnings (Best Buy, Dollar stores, Ulta) for consumer-spending signals ahead of Friday's Fed speech. 3) Positioning into Jackson Hole, given lingering tariff and inflation uncertainty.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 26, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.45% today versus +0.01% for SPY, a meaningful outperformance in a session where the broad market barely moved. US stocks were mostly lower amid losses from heavyweight chip producers ahead of earnings results from Nvidia, with the S&P 500 and Dow inching below the flatline and the Nasdaq 100 falling 0.5%.

What drove it: QNTM flagged a RISK_OFF regime today with conviction at just 49.6/100 and only 3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — a defensive signal that kept the model light on mega-cap semis and AI-capex names. Nvidia shares wavered ahead of their earnings release after the bell, and Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon all traded lower. That underweight is a big reason the model didn't share in the chip-led drag. On the positive side, Meta jumped 4% after agreeing to a $16.7 billion settlement with US states over social media strategy for teens — a name the model's sentiment/quality pillars had favored.

Macro backdrop: A closely watched US price gauge rose in line with expectations in July, with core PCE up 0.2% and 3.3% year-over-year, giving the Fed some room to hold rates near-term. Headline PCE ran a touch hot at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected. WTI crude sat near $82. VIX stayed subdued at 15.3 despite the cautious regime read.

What's next: Nvidia's earnings, released after the close, will likely set the tone for tech and the broader tape tomorrow.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a defensive posture despite calm volatility readings, reflecting lingering tariff and geopolitical crosscurrents rather than acute stress.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral composite across 1,421 scored names, with only 3.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees a market waiting on catalysts rather than trending decisively either way.

On the calendar today The main event is the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, with economists expecting 3.3%, unchanged from the prior month. Also due: July personal income/spending, Q2 GDP second estimate, and July durable goods orders, alongside earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, Williams-Sonoma, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, and Okta. Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close.

Overnight & premarket

Futures were mixed ahead of the session as investors awaited Nvidia's results and the inflation data, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.20% and S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, while Dow futures were up 0.07%. Oil continued declining as war-widening concerns eased and Iran and Oman were reportedly close to a deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Intuit's guidance-driven selloff deepened in premarket trading.

What to watch 1) Core PCE reading vs. the 3.3% consensus and its rate-path implications. 2) Nvidia's after-hours print given its outsized index weight. 3) Follow-through on the Strait of Hormuz talks and oil's slide toward $80 WTI, consistent with QNTM's war-deescalation flag.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 25, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell -0.53% today while SPY gained +0.31% — a roughly 84 bp gap. QNTM's regime flag was RISK_OFF, triggered by the ongoing "tariff_broad" macro event, and average conviction across the 1,422-name scored universe sat at just 49.7, with only 3.4% of stocks rated high-conviction. That defensive posture likely caused the model to miss today's move higher.

What drove it: The broad tape was led by tech and healthcare — the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.57 percent, with technology and healthcare leading. The standout was Moderna, which surged 13.89 percent to $158.18 on positive Phase 3 trial data for a personalized melanoma vaccine developed with Merck — a name a risk-off, tariff-cautious model would plausibly be underweight. On the downside, DICK'S Sporting Goods cratered 29% on a Foot Locker miss, illustrating how single-name shocks in consumer discretionary can hit concentrated portfolios. With tariff escalation still front and center — Canada announced retaliatory tariffs applying to roughly $20 billion in goods, set to take effect Sept. 8, ranging from 15% to 50% — QNTM's overlay stayed defensive.

Market recap: The S&P 500 gained 24.39 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 7,677.25, though volume was lighter than average, suggesting narrow conviction behind the gains. VIX held low near 15.5.

What's next: Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks Friday are the key catalysts to watch.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF — QNTM's regime engine flags risk-off, consistent with a market digesting fresh tariff headlines and escalating geopolitical conflict; this typically favors defensive positioning and lower gross exposure.

Conviction: 49.8/100 — A near-neutral reading across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.7% screening as high-conviction. That's a signal of broad indecision rather than a clear bullish or bearish tilt — the model isn't finding many stocks with strong, aligned signals across momentum, quality, volume, value, and sentiment right now.

On the calendar today: Stocks are prepared for Nvidia's quarterly results, along with a key inflation report and the Federal Reserve's annual symposium, with the PCE price index for July due Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expected to speak at Jackson Hole. Broader earnings flow remains heavy this week.

Overnight & premarket: US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% after the underlying gauge fell almost 1% Monday on a chip-stock selloff, while European shares were set to open higher and Asia-Pacific stocks erased earlier losses. Monday's session saw futures pressured by tech weakness and a deteriorating macro backdrop, with oil easing but staying elevated as the US pledged to economically isolate Iran. WTI sits near $82.41.

What to watch: 1. Nvidia earnings reaction and whether chip-sector jitters extend or fade. 2. Any fresh tariff or Iran-related headlines given today's macro tags (tariff_broad, war_escalation). 3. Positioning ahead of Wednesday's July PCE print and Fed commentary out of Jackson Hole.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, August 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell 0.77% today, underperforming SPY's 0.28% decline by roughly half a point. The model's 49-name book carries above-benchmark exposure to semiconductors, and that concentration was the main drag: Micron Technology shed more than 5%, while Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom pulled back 3% and 2%, respectively, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF slid 2%. Chip weakness reflects nervousness ahead of Nvidia's earnings later this week and jitters over AI capex payback, not a single stock-specific shock.

Broader market: the S&P 500 fell slightly as a drop in key technology stocks overshadowed lower Treasury yields, closing at 7,652.96, while the Nasdaq lost 0.76% to 25,980.19; the Dow gained 0.26%. The session's macro backdrop lines up with QNTM's RISK_OFF regime flag: Canadian stocks whipsawed after trade talks with the US collapsed, threatening a wider trade fight, with PM Mark Carney recalling negotiators from Washington, and the Trump administration slapped 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, with Carney vowing retaliatory tariffs starting Sept. 8. Middle East sanctions headlines added to the cautious tone. Conviction sits at 49.7 with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe scoring high-conviction — a thin, defensive posture.

What's next: Nvidia earnings midweek and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday are the key catalysts to watch. This is research/education, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, flagging both broad tariff and war-escalation risk — consistent with a market bracing for policy and geopolitical headlines rather than chasing momentum.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Across 1,422 scored names, only 3.8% screen as high-conviction — a neutral, split-the-difference reading that suggests no broad edge on either side of the tape today.

On the calendar today

Monday data includes Mexican inflation and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, with Treasury Secretary Bessent among scheduled speakers; PDD and Xpeng report earnings. Bessent is expected to reveal details of sanctions plans against Iran later today. It's otherwise a quiet data day ahead of Wednesday's PCE report and Nvidia earnings, with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium starting later in the week.

Overnight & premarket

The 10-year Treasury yield is near a 20-month high of 4.74%. Futures were pressured by new US sanctions against Iran, failed US-Canada trade talks, and reciprocal tariff threats. Premarket movers include HOOD +13.70%, BABA -8.57%, and MRVL -5.57%. PDD reports Q2 results premarket today, with focus on consumer spending trends.

What to watch 1) Details and market reaction to the Iran sanctions announcement. 2) Whether elevated yields continue pressuring rate-sensitive and growth names. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's PCE print and Nvidia's earnings, likely keeping volume light today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended Friday, August 22, 2026

QNTM's model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.7% this week versus SPY's -0.9%, a ~1.6-point edge. The broad tape struggled: major indexes were poised to register weekly declines for the first time since late July, pressured early by renewed concerns that the US-Iran war could reignite, which pushed oil and long-end Treasury yields higher (WTI closed near $87).

What drove it: Health care was the standout sector after Moderna and Merck said its mRNA treatment was successful in its late-stage clinical trial, sending the Health Care index up more than 4% on the week — QNTM's quality/momentum overlap in that group added the bulk of relative gains. On the downside, consumer discretionary names lagged as Nike shares traded at lows not seen since September 2014, weighing on the model's smaller retail sleeve.

Macro backdrop: QNTM flipped to RISK_OFF for the Aug 22 session, flagging tariff and war-escalation triggers alongside firmer oil and rising long-term yields. Conviction across the 1,422-name universe sits at a neutral 50.1, with only 3.8% of stocks scoring "high conviction" — a narrow, cautious signal set consistent with the defensive tilt.

Next week: July PCE inflation and Nvidia earnings land Wednesday, followed by the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, kicking off Thursday with new Chair Kevin Warsh speaking Friday — a likely volatility catalyst.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, August 21, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.38% today, more than triple SPY's +0.4% gain, in a session the system flagged as RISK_OFF (VIX 15.2, WTI $86.80) amid ongoing tariff and war-escalation macro tags.

What drove it: With conviction at just 50.4 and only 4.4% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction," the model's 50 holdings were concentrated in quality/value names — a tilt that paid off as the broad market recouped losses. Wall Street had closed lower Thursday as tensions between the United States and Iran rose, heightening geopolitical concerns, hitting rate-sensitive tech and tariff-exposed retail hardest — Walmart fell 9.2% after weak guidance. QNTM's screens historically underweight names with deteriorating momentum/sentiment like this. Friday's rebound was led by defensives and financials: the Dow was up about 517 points, or 0.98%, supported by gains in healthcare stocks such as Merck and Johnson & Johnson, while Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and American Express paced large-cap gains — sectors QNTM's model overweighted, explaining the spread versus a cap-weighted SPY.

Market recap: US stocks were slightly higher on Friday, pausing the week's losses as markets continued gauging risks from higher energy prices and bond yields; the S&P 500 and Dow rose around 0.4%, while the Nasdaq inched above the flatline. A report showed US business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, offsetting bond-market jitters.

What's next: Watch whether Treasury's debt-buyback moves and easing yields sustain the bounce into next week, with Nvidia earnings looming.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, with VIX at 15.5 — VIX moved from 15.20 to 16.03, still contained but no longer as complacent as the previous outlook. Bonds, not stocks, are driving the defensive tilt today.

Conviction: 49.9/100 Across 1,422 scored names, average conviction sits at 49.9 with only 4.0% in high-conviction territory — a neutral, split tape rather than a broad "buy" or "sell" signal from the model.

On the calendar today S&P Global's flash Manufacturing/Services PMI lands at 9:45am ET, alongside a Reuters/BLS-referenced release cited by desks near 10am ET. No major single-name earnings are scheduled. Canada's tariff postponement is set to expire end of day, August 21, making the trade deadline itself a scheduled event.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were rising Friday following a sharp sell-off, as Treasury's efforts to bolster bond buybacks failed to reassure investors, after the Treasury Secretary said Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buybacks. Nasdaq-100 futures were leading at +0.5% ahead of the S&P 500, while the 10-year climbed toward 4.71%. Thursday's session saw disappointing earnings from Walmart weigh on stocks, with the retailer reporting its slowest quarterly sales growth in more than six years. WTI trades near $87.

What to watch 1) Whether the Canada tariff pause is extended or the 50% duty takes effect Saturday. 2) PMI internals and long-bond yields (30Y near 5.25%) — a break higher could pressure equities. 3) Breadth: decliners led 1.92-to-1 with light volume Thursday, worth confirming or reversing today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 20, 2026

The model portfolio slipped -0.52% today, outpacing SPY's -0.90% decline by 38bps — modest outperformance in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to a RISK_OFF regime overnight, and conviction sat at a soft 49.8 (just 3.9% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction"), reflecting a market pricing new tariff friction and shaky rates. The real-world catalyst was the S&P 500 extended this week's drop, with Walmart Inc. sinking 9.7% on disappointing sales, dragging the Dow down nearly 1.3%. QNTM's 50-name model carries no retail mega-cap concentration comparable to the S&P's cap-weighting, so it avoided the brunt of that single-name shock — a diversification effect rather than a specific bet against Walmart. Separately, oil settled near $88 as Trump's threat to crush the Iranian economy clouded peace prospects, while thirty-year yields climbed even as Bessent flagged a bigger buyback, keeping energy and rate-sensitive names volatile.

Market recap: The Dow fell 1.3%, or nearly 700 points, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 1% after all three indexes had rallied Wednesday. VIX ticked up to ~16 as yields reversed a brief Treasury-buyback-driven rally.

What's next: Watch Friday's Philly Fed follow-through and any headlines on the tentative U.S.-Canada tariff framework for direction into next week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by broad tariff headlines and war escalation risk. One-line read: elevated geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty is capping risk appetite even as realized volatility stays contained (VIX ~15.9).

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral reading (1,422 stocks scored; only 3.9% flagged high-conviction) implies the model sees a balanced, low-differentiation tape — few standout long or short signals today, consistent with a wait-and-see market.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am ET) and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for July (10am ET) are the main data points. Earnings are expected from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase, and Ross Stores. Walmart reports its fiscal Q2 results before the open.

Overnight & premarket

Futures tracking US equities were mixed, holding losses from the previous session on more pressure from elevated bond yields, with Nasdaq 100 futures down while Oracle, AMD, Micron and Marvell were lower. Asian equities saw sharper declines Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei plunging 2.5% and the Kospi losing more than 1%. Crude remains elevated near $87-88/bbl amid ongoing Iran-related supply concerns.

What to watch 1) Walmart's guidance reaction, a bellwether for consumer health. 2) Long-end Treasury yields — near multi-year highs — and their pull on rate-sensitive tech/chips. 3) Any fresh tariff or Middle East headlines given the active RISK_OFF flags.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 19, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.31% today while SPY edged up +0.19%, a roughly 50bp gap on a session where the tape's gains were narrow and defensive.

What drove it: Gains were broad on most sectors, with software application and hyperscalers mostly trading higher, and Apple, Salesforce, and Tesla gained 1%. But the real lift came from names outside typical high-conviction screens: retail stocks gained after TJX, Target, and Lowe's all reported second-quarter earnings, and Moderna stock prices doubled while Merck surged 10% after a trial on their joint vaccine cut recurrence in melanoma. Merck led Dow gains (+10.20%), while Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were among the laggards. With QNTM's universe averaging a middling 50.1 conviction score and only 4.1% of ~1,422 names scoring high-conviction, the model's 50-stock sleeve had limited exposure to the healthcare/vaccine surprise and retail-earnings pop that carried the index — a diversification-vs-concentration mismatch rather than a broad market call being wrong.

Market recap: Most shares in the S&P 500 rose, though chipmakers dropped once again, keeping the Nasdaq soft even as the broader tape firmed. Backdrop stayed tense: tariff and Middle East headlines kept a bid under oil (WTI ~$84) while VIX held low near 15, and 30-year yields hovered near multi-decade highs after Tuesday's spike.

What's next: Watch whether healthcare/retail leadership broadens or fades, and whether easing Treasury-yield pressure lets semis stabilize — both would matter for the model's next rebalance. This is research, not a recommendation.

Market Regime: Risk-Off QNTM's regime engine reads Risk-Off, matching the tape: the long summer rally ran into headwinds this week as the 60-day ceasefire ended without a resolution and bond yields and oil climbed globally, with tech, especially chips, falling early. Defensive positioning looks warranted into the open.

Conviction: 49.8/100 A near-neutral reading with only 3.3% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction" — the model finds few names with a clear edge and leans cautious, consistent with the broad-tariff macro flag in today's data.

On the calendar today

FOMC minutes and expected earnings from Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe's, Target, and Estee Lauder. Investors are waiting for direction on the Fed's trajectory following its suspension of guidance.

Overnight & premarket

Asian markets plunged as South Korea's KOSPI tumbled over 5% and SK Hynix and Samsung suffered steep losses amid escalating US-Iran tensions that pushed Brent above $91 a barrel after Trump ruled out talks with Iran. S&P 500 futures fell 0.18%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.37%, Dow futures slipped 0.11%, and Russell 2000 futures were down 0.19%. SK Hynix depositary receipts climbed 3.9% on a $29 billion buyback; Mercury Systems dropped 10.76% after mixed results, missing on EPS.

What to watch 1. FOMC minutes for hints on the rate path amid the Fed's paused guidance. 2. Oil/yield follow-through given the VIX continuing to climb from last week's 2026 lows, up another 3.75% — a hedging-demand signal. 3. Retail earnings (Target, TJX, Lowe's) as a consumer-health gauge against tariff and rate headwinds.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 18, 2026

The QNTml model portfolio (50 holdings) fell 0.31% today, well ahead of SPY's 0.74% decline — a rare day where staying lighter in mega-cap tech and semis paid off.

What drove it: Markets took a real-world hit as oil ticked higher as prospects for a resolution of the US-Iran war receded, with WTI rising toward $85 a barrel. That fed a broad "risk-off" rotation: a selloff in chipmakers sent stocks lower, with growing anxiety about inflation and rising government debt keeping bond yields elevated — the semiconductor gauge fell 5.5% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.7%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 Energy sector climbed as much as 1.8% as investors bet the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz persists. QNTM's model was underweight the chip/AI names that led losses and held energy exposure that benefited from the same headline risk — explaining the gap versus SPY, which carries heavier index-level tech weight. Conviction sits at 49.8 (near-neutral) across 1,422 names scored, with only 3.0% flagged high-conviction — consistent with today's RISK_OFF regime read.

Market recap: All three benchmark indexes ended in the red — the Dow lost 272.63 points to 53,459.78, the Nasdaq fell 84.25 points to 26,644.91, and the S&P 500 slid 40.7 points to 7,745.06, with retail and communications stocks dragging as concerns around AI-stock valuations and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.

What's next: Watch oil and Iran headlines — sustained escalation risk keeps the RISK_OFF regime in place and energy/tech divergence in focus. This is research, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, though that sits awkwardly against a bond-yield/oil-driven futures selloff overnight — worth watching whether the model's calmer signal (VIX 15.7) or the headline risk wins out today.

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral score with only 3.2% of the 1,421-name universe in high-conviction territory — breadth is thin, meaning today's tape is more headline-driven than fundamentals-driven.

On the calendar today

Home Depot reports before the market opens Tuesday, August 18. The Federal Reserve releases July industrial production and capacity utilization data, after industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in June. FOMC minutes and more retail earnings (Target, Lowe's) land Wednesday, not today.

Overnight & premarket

US stock-index futures fell as rising bond yields and a spike in oil prices unnerved investors, with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.5%. Single-name action: Microsoft stock fell 3% as AI chip doubts collided with its $190 billion bet, while Micron reclaimed $1,000 and SanDisk jumped 9% on an Apple-China move and Elon Musk's memory warning.

What to watch 1. Home Depot's read on housing-sensitive consumer spending after weak July retail sales. 2. Any Iran-conflict headline shift — yields/oil have been the main swing factor. 3. Whether thin conviction breadth (3.2% high-conviction) holds up if volatility ticks higher.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — Monday, August 17, 2026

The QNTM model portemented +0.06% today while SPY slipped -0.47% — a ~53bp relative gap in a mildly bullish regime (conviction 50.0 across 1,422 names, only 2.8% flagged high-conviction).

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector positioning. The key bullish driver is resilient risk appetite and rotation into cyclicals/energy, as IWM (+0.45%), XLE (+1.39%), and XLU (+0.61%) outperformed while the dollar and volatility remained contained. QNTM's 50-name model carried tilts toward energy and utilities, insulating it from the mega-cap weakness that dragged the benchmark. The Dow fell roughly 158 points, driven by McDonald's (-1.81%), UnitedHealth (-1.63%) and Microsoft (-1.09%) — names the model was light on. Semiconductor softness also lingered after Friday's Applied Materials plunge, per Zacks reporting.

Broader tape: All three benchmark indexes ended in the red, with the Dow losing 107.58 points, or 0.2%, to close at 53,732.41. VIX ticked up to ~15.2 but remains historically low. Backdrop included the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rising to 35 in August from 34 in July, beating consensus, alongside firm 10-year yields near 4.70%. Oil stayed elevated near $84 WTI amid ongoing Mideast tensions despite hopes for de-escalation.

What's next: Retail earnings (Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's) and Wednesday's FOMC minutes headline the week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, consistent with a VIX near 14.9 — low by historical standards — signaling calm, momentum-friendly conditions rather than defensive positioning.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Conviction sits at the midpoint across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.2% flagged high-conviction. That's a neutral, low-breadth reading — the model sees no broad-based edge in either direction today.

On the calendar today

The Empire State Index for August is due at 8:30 a.m., followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. FOMC minutes from the July 28–29 meeting are scheduled for release Wednesday, and Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart are among the companies reporting earnings this week.

Overnight & premarket

Technology stocks lifted global equities after stellar revenue growth at Anthropic bolstered views on sustained AI spending; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, and storage/semiconductor names like Sandisk and Micron rallied premarket. The dollar touched a three-month low. Brent closed in on $90 a barrel as fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah dealt a setback to regional de-escalation efforts.

What to watch 1) Whether oil's climb toward $90 on Mideast tensions pressures energy-sensitive sectors despite QNTM's "de-escalation" macro tag. 2) Retail earnings (HD, TGT, WMT) as a read on consumer health after Friday's pullback tied partly to a surprise drop in July retail sales. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes and the approaching Jackson Hole symposium.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week ending Aug 14, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +3.12% this week versus +0.43% for SPY, a wide margin over a week where the index still notched its third straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 scaled to a fresh record on Thursday, topping 7,800 for the first time, posting an all-time closing high of 7,798.99, before stocks fell Friday amid deteriorating consumer sentiment.

Drivers: Momentum was led by energy, up nearly 6% week to date, with healthcare and financials also outperforming, up more than 1% each — a backdrop that favored QNTM's cyclical/value tilt. Single-name catalysts consistent with the model's factors included Nu Holdings surging nearly 12% on a record quarterly profit and Reddit jumping 10.4% on its upcoming S&P 500 inclusion, while laggards like Globant sinking 12.6% on a disappointing quarterly report illustrate where quality/sentiment signals diverged.

Macro: Regime stayed "mildly bullish," VIX near 14.25. Cooling inflation data reinforced bets the Fed will hold rates in September, while a disinflation trend from lower tariff costs and oil eventually flowing from the Strait of Hormuz supported both macro tags — tariff easing and war de-escalation — in QNTM's model this week.

Next week: Watch the July FOMC minutes on Wednesday, ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month.

QNTM Day Wrap — August 14, 2026

The model portfolio edged up +0.08% while SPY fell -0.22%, a ~30bp outperformance day. Broad market action was choppy: the S&P 500 fell 0.19% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.43%, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.43%, and VIX eased 1.16% to 14.46. The pullback followed a fresh S&P record above 7,800 the prior session, with July retail sales showing a decline of -0.6%, its worst reading in over a year, cooling risk appetite even as producer inflation softened to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, below the 4.9% estimate.

QNTM's 50-name book benefited from breadth away from mega-cap tech, echoing the day's small/mid-cap resilience. Single-name dispersion was sharp: Nu Holdings surged nearly 12% on a record quarter with net income above $1 billion, and Reddit jumped 10.4% on its upcoming S&P 500 inclusion — names consistent with QNTM's momentum/sentiment factors. On the drag side, Globant sank 12.6% after a disappointing quarter and Range Resources tumbled 7.3% on weak natural gas prices, pressuring energy/services exposure amid the day's tariff-broad tag (new drone-sector tariffs) and a still-hawkish Fed tone.

Conviction sat at a modest 50.3, with only 3.6% of 1,422 names high-conviction — reflecting genuine crosscurrents, not consensus. Next up: consumer sentiment data and the path toward the September Fed decision. Research/education only — not investment advice.

Market Regime: QNTM's model reads MILDLY BULLISH for today's session, consistent with a VIX near 14.6 — low realized fear even as macro flags (broad tariffs, war escalation) stay lit in the background.

Conviction: Composite conviction sits at 50.2/100 across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.9% in high-conviction territory. That's a neutral, narrow reading — the model sees a market near record highs but without broad-based signal strength underneath.

On the calendar today: No major earnings scheduled. With no major reports on the calendar for Friday, attention is beginning to turn to a series of retail earnings next week, including from Target and Walmart, before Nvidia's highly anticipated report the week after on Aug. 26. Data due: Retail Sales (July, 8:30am ET), Business Inventories (10am), and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10am).

Overnight & premarket: US stock futures traded roughly flat Friday after the S&P 500 notched a record high amid easing Fed rate-hike fears and cooler-than-expected inflation data. A rally in Asian stocks pointed to a positive open, with South Korea's KOSPI climbing over 2.4% and Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.6%. Reddit shares soared 12.4% in premarket trading ahead of joining the S&P 500.

What to watch: 1. Retail sales — a soft print could revive rate-cut chatter after this week's cooler CPI. 2. Energy/tariff crosscurrents: the Trump administration is imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and their components, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep oil near $82. 3. Index-rebalancing flows around Reddit's S&P 500 addition.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Thursday, August 13, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.81% today, well ahead of SPY's +0.66%. Conviction across the 1,422-name universe sat at 50.2, with only 3.7% of stocks flagged high-conviction — a selective, RISK_ON tape with VIX near 14.7.

What drove it: The model's 50-name book skewed toward the session's actual leadership — AI-adjacent momentum and small/mid-cap names — which is where today's real gains concentrated. The S&P 500 added 0.65% and topped 7,800 for the first time, while the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, boosted by Meta Platforms, Micron, and Netflix. The Russell 2000 hit a record 3,067, up over 23% year-to-date — consistent with the breadth QNTM's quality/momentum pillars tend to reward in a low-vol, risk-on regime. Names tied to slower earnings reactions likely lagged: Cisco and Cerebras both fell after earnings, per reports.

Market recap: The July producer price index came in unchanged, extending Wednesday's cool CPI print. Brent fell over 2% to $87.07 and WTI slid to $81.25 as traders weighed falling oil demand amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict — matching QNTM's $81.21 WTI read. Treasury yields eased on lower rate-hike odds.

What's next: Watch Applied Materials' after-hours results and next week's retail sales for confirmation the soft-inflation, risk-on setup holds.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime overlay reads Mildly Bullish. With VIX near 14.6, equity risk appetite remains intact even as geopolitical and inflation crosscurrents build underneath the surface.

Conviction: 49.9/100 A near-neutral composite (only 3.0% of the 1,422-name universe screens "high conviction") suggests QNTM's model sees a market without a clear, broad-based edge today — leadership is narrow rather than universal.

On the calendar today The main event is the July Producer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists polled by Dow Jones expecting the index to increase 0.2% from the prior month. A $42 billion 10-year Treasury auction is also on tap today. Earnings include Brookfield (BN), NetEase (NTES), JD.com (JD), Tapestry (TPR), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Nu Holdings (NU).

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures edged higher and oil prices fell as investors awaited the inflation report; Cerebras (CBRS) tumbled 19% in premarket trading after missing Wall Street's second-quarter revenue estimate, while Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Coherent (COHR) were also falling. On oil, crude fell toward $82 a barrel, snapping a five-day advance as investors assessed prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US had "total control" over the waterway amid escalating rhetoric with Tehran, with negotiations deadlocked, and the administration is moving toward tighter sanctions on Iran.

What to watch 1. Whether PPI confirms yesterday's tame CPI or reignites hot-inflation fears (QNTM flags "inflation_hot"). 2. Iran/Strait-of-Hormuz headlines — a war-escalation tag is live in the macro overlay, and oil remains sensitive to any blockade or strike news. 3. AI/hardware earnings reaction (Cerebras, Applied Materials) as a read on tech breadth given QNTM's thin 3% high-conviction pool.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 12, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.57% today versus +0.25% for SPY, a wide outperformance in a RISK_ON regime (VIX 14.4).

What drove it: The gap tracks back to sector concentration. Today's tape was led by AI-infrastructure and tech earnings beats — US stocks traded higher led by the technology sector as investors turned to earnings, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.9%, reversing earlier weekly losses. Specific movers included cloud computing company CoreWeave, which climbed 18% after narrowing its loss per share and meeting revenue expectations, Super Micro Computer, which surged 9% after beating earnings estimates and offering an upbeat forecast, and Nebius Group, which jumped more than 12.5% on better-than-expected EBITDA, revenue, and gross margins. QNTM's momentum/quality tilt into this AI-infra cohort captured moves the cap-weighted SPY only partially reflects, since these names carry modest S&P weight individually.

Market recap: The S&P 500 finished higher Wednesday as July inflation data came in broadly as expected, easing concerns about another Fed hike, with the benchmark gaining 19.51 points, or 0.25%. July CPI rose 0.1% on the month, with the annual rate at 3.4%, matching estimates. Oil pushed above $83 a barrel on lingering Strait of Hormuz tension even as de-escalation hopes grew.

What's next: Watch whether tariff and Middle East headlines stay contained; a calmer macro backdrop with cooling inflation is the setup QNTM's RISK_ON overlay favors — but conviction remains modest (49.8/100), signaling a selective, not broad-based, opportunity set.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads today's tape as constructive but not exuberant — consistent with a VIX near 15.4 and a modest pullback in crude to $83.70, suggesting the Middle East risk premium is cooling into the CPI print.

Conviction: 49.6/100 Roughly at the midpoint of QNTM's scale, with only 2.4% of the 1,422-name universe scored "high conviction" — a signal of a stock-picker's market rather than a broad, high-confidence rally.

On the calendar today July CPI hits at 8:30 a.m. ET, following a weaker than expected July jobs report, with investors focused on inflation as the Fed considers the appropriate level for interest rates. Earnings include Cisco, Nebius, and Cerebras Systems.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures drifted higher as investors braced for the CPI data; Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P futures edged up 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.7%. CoreWeave climbed 18% on narrowed losses, and Super Micro Computer surged 9% on an earnings beat, per premarket reports.

What to watch 1) The CPI print itself — any surprise on core inflation could quickly reprice Fed-cut odds. 2) Follow-through in AI/cloud names (CoreWeave, SMCI) after big premarket earnings moves. 3) Oil's reaction if Middle East headlines shift further — WTI near $84 remains a swing factor for energy and inflation-sensitive sectors.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.39% today, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) at -0.32%. The model's 50-holding concentration weighed slightly more than the broad index in a risk-off tape.

What drove it: Conviction sat at a tepid 49.8/100 across 1,422 scored names, with just 2.7% flagged high-conviction — a sign the model found little to lean into today. The underperformance traces to energy-sensitive and growth positioning colliding with the day's macro driver: oil. Crude climbed above $83 per barrel, rising for a fourth straight session amid heightened uncertainty over a potential deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump demanded compensation from Iran for people killed in the conflict, after Tehran reiterated its own reparations request — a headline that kept risk appetite muted and pressured rate- and oil-cost-sensitive growth names the model holds, outweighing gains in its energy sleeve.

Market recap: Major averages were little changed-to-lower — the Dow (-0.06%), S&P 500 (-0.10%), and Nasdaq Composite (-0.39%) all posted declines, holding just below record highs. Wall Street stayed near all-time highs ahead of key inflation data due tomorrow morning.

What's next: Wednesday's CPI print, alongside any fresh headlines on Strait of Hormuz negotiations, are the key swing factors for both oil and equity sentiment.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: NEUTRAL. QNTM's macro overlay shows no strong directional signal, consistent with low VIX (15.4) and a market that's grinding sideways near highs rather than trending.

Conviction: 49.5/100, with just 2.7% of the 1,422-name universe in high-conviction territory. A reading this close to the midpoint signals a broad lack of consensus across the five pillars — the model sees a stock-picker's market, not a clear risk-on or risk-off setup.

On the calendar today: No major scheduled Fed speeches or data releases this morning, but markets are bracing for key July consumer prices (CPI) inflation data Wednesday morning (and PPI on Thursday), which could be key in determining the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Earnings today include Cardinal Health (CAH), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), both CRWV and SMCI reporting after the bell.

Overnight & premarket: Futures are muted — stock futures were rising and oil prices were sharply higher as investors weighed the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude extends its latest rally approaching $90 per barrel while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.72%, with WTI near $82.27 in QNTM's feed. Trump demanded Monday that Iran compensate victims' families and Middle Eastern countries after Tehran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz without compensation.

What to watch: 1. Geopolitical oil-price risk from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz standoff feeding into yields and rate expectations. 2. CRWV and SMCI earnings after the close — both carry large implied option moves. 3. Positioning ahead of Wednesday's CPI print, which markets see as the next major catalyst for Fed rate-path expectations.

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, August 10, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.06% vs. SPY -0.06%, a roughly 112 bps edge on a session where the broader tape was essentially flat-to-slightly-lower. Stocks weakened early as oil rose following lack of weekend Iran progress, and crude oil traded around $78 per barrel on Monday, holding recent gains as uncertainty persisted over efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — consistent with QNTM's WTI read of ~$81.91 and its RISK_OFF regime flag.

What drove it: Real-money leaders/laggards told the story — gains were led by Salesforce, Nvidia and Honeywell, while the biggest losers were Visa, Chevron and Caterpillar. That's telling: even with oil climbing, energy (Chevron) and cyclicals (Caterpillar) sold off alongside financials, a classic risk-off pattern where war headlines hit sentiment more than commodity-linked names benefit. QNTM's model — built across 50 holdings from a 1,422-stock universe with conviction sitting low at 49.7 (only 3% scored "high conviction") — appears to have avoided that energy/industrial/financials drag, likely via quality- and momentum-tilted tech exposure that mirrored the Nvidia/Salesforce strength.

Market recap: A softer-than-expected July nonfarm payrolls report weakened expectations for Fed rate hikes, per Deutsche Bank. Indices were mixed/flat as doubts grew that the U.S. and Iran will reach a lasting resolution.

Next: Watch CPI and jobless claims later this week, plus any Hormuz/Iran headlines — both could move oil and risk appetite quickly.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by broad tariff actions and Middle East war escalation — yet the VIX sits at a calm 15.47, so the model is pricing tail risk that isn't (yet) showing up in realized volatility.

Conviction: 50.0/100 A neutral reading with only 3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — the model sees a market with no clear edge, consistent with a wait-and-see tape ahead of this week's inflation data.

On the calendar today No major Fed speakers scheduled. Earnings before the open include monday.com (8:30am call) monday.com will report second-quarter 2026 results Monday, August 10, with a call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Axsome Therapeutics and Bitdeer also report AM; Archer Aviation, Hims & Hers, Plug Power, Rocket Lab and Quantum Computing report after the close. Tomorrow brings tech and communications earnings alongside closely watched US CPI data, which will frame the inflation trend behind the recent Treasury yield drop.

Overnight & premarket

The S&P 500 climbed 0.62%, the Dow edged up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.19% in the prior session after July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, reducing concern over potential Fed rate hikes. Oil is firmer: Brent crude futures were up 1.4% at $84.70 a barrel, with WTI up 1.4% near $79.31. London shares were steady. Tesla remains down roughly 30-35% from its recent peak.

What to watch 1) Strait of Hormuz talks — Iran says the strait stays shut until six conditions are met, including ending the war against Iran and its allies.

2) Tuesday's CPI print and its read-through for Fed policy. 3) Heavy AI/chip earnings this week (AMAT, SMCI, CRWV, RKLB) as a sentiment gauge after July's tech unwind.

*Research & education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Aug 3–8, 2026

The model portfolio slipped -0.18% this week while SPY gained +2.06% — a ~2.2-point shortfall as mega-caps led the tape. Monday set the tone: the major stock averages surged in Monday's session to start August trading, with the Dow closing at a record high as Amazon eclipsed $3 trillion in market cap. Tech held through midweek before Wednesday's geopolitical scare hit risk appetite: a flare-up in geopolitical risks sent stocks and bonds lower as oil jumped, with escalating Middle East tensions driving Brent crude to $83, dragging down memory/hardware names as Sandisk Corp. and Western Digital Corp. sank as their forecasts underwhelmed investors.

Friday's jobs miss flipped sentiment: the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, the BLS reported, while unemployment held at 4.1%, sparking a rate-cut-hope rally. QNTM's biggest single-name drag was ad-tech: The Trade Desk's market cap fell roughly $1.8 billion Friday, with shares down 21.9% following disappointing third-quarter guidance. Momentum-tilted small/mid-caps like IREN and QuantumScape were relative bright spots on the week.

Macro backdrop: VIX near 14.9, WTI ~$78, regime reads "mildly bullish." Conviction sits at 49.9/100 with just 2.7% of the 1,422-name universe flagged high-conviction — a dispersed, cautious setup. A broad tariff overlay remained an active macro input, though market reaction stayed muted versus prior tariff shocks.

Next week: Tuesday's CPI report is the key scheduled catalyst for rate-path expectations.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 7, 2026

Model vs. Benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio slipped -0.13% today while SPY gained +0.62%, a roughly 75-basis-point lag.

What drove it: The gap traces to positioning, not stock-picking errors. Today's rally was concentrated in rate-sensitive growth and chips after the July jobs report — payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% — which markets read as reducing the odds of a near-term Fed hike. The S&P 500 rose more than 3% week to date, and the Nasdaq gained 5% thanks to a bounce-back in chip stocks, with the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up about 7% on the week. QNTM's model, running at a middling 50.0 conviction score with only 2.8% of the 1,422-stock universe flagged high-conviction, held broader, lower-beta exposure and simply wasn't tilted into that single-day semis/growth surge — the same reason it can lag on narrow, catalyst-driven up days even in a "mildly bullish" regime.

Market recap: The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64, up 0.62%; the Nasdaq gained 1.30%; the Dow added 0.28%; the VIX fell to 14.87. Elsewhere, tariff talks between the U.S. and Canada continued and Middle East de-escalation hopes lingered, both consistent with today's calmer VIX.

What's next: With rate-hike odds fading, focus shifts to next week's inflation data and how durable this growth-led leadership proves.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF into today's open. The pullback came as a rebound in oil prices reignited concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. A low VIX near 15 alongside a defensive regime flag is a mismatch worth watching — the model may be pricing tariff and geopolitical tail risk that options markets aren't yet.

Conviction: 50.0/100 A neutral reading, with only 2.8% of the ~1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a thin, undecided tape — the model isn't finding many stocks with aligned momentum, quality, volume, value, and sentiment signals right now.

On the calendar today The headline event is the July jobs report at 8:30am ET. FactSet estimates total nonfarm payrolls to rise by 97,500 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, which would mark an acceleration from June's gain of 57,000 jobs. CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 54.7% likelihood of the Fed hiking rates at its September meeting, so payrolls could swing that odds quickly.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday, with the Dow slipping while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose, following Thursday's 0.18% slip to close at 7,709.96. Single-name moves are extreme: Atlassian surged 30.25% premarket on better-than-expected results, while Trade Desk plunged 27.45% on a weak quarter and soft guidance; Airbnb jumped over 8% and Cloudflare soared 16% on strong outlooks, and Western Digital sank 13% and Sandisk lost 6.8% on disappointing results.

What to watch 1. Payrolls reaction — a beat above ~100k could revive September hike odds and pressure risk assets. 2. Strait of Hormuz talks — Iran and Oman are continuing negotiations on a framework for the strait, tying to the "war_deescalation" flag; any breakdown could spike oil (WTI ~$77) and volatility. 3. Earnings dispersion — with tariff-related and mega-cap tech reactions swinging 15-30% on single names, sector rotation could dominate over index-level moves.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 6, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped just 0.01% today, comfortably ahead of SPY's 0.15% decline — a modest but clean 14bp edge in a session where breadth was mixed under the surface.

What drove it: Stocks slipped as Treasury yields rose and investors absorbed a series of earnings reports, prospects of an imminent Strait of Hormuz deal, and fresh labor market data — the geopolitical thread lines up with QNTM's "war de-escalation" macro flag today. The real pressure point was tech: memory stocks and software names both trading lower as weaker results from HubSpot and Figma weigh on the software complex, while memory stocks slide despite beat-and-raise quarters from SanDisk and Western Digital, with both names coming under pressure after massive YTD rallies, SanDisk up about 469% and WDC up about 201%. QNTM's 50-name, diversified book carries far less single-stock concentration than cap-weighted SPY, so it largely sidestepped that memory/software air-pocket — the main source of today's relative outperformance.

Market recap: The Dow slid 0.9%, snapping its record-breaking win streak, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq was down 0.1%. Six of the S&P's 11 sectors advanced, with materials adding 1.5% to lead gains. VIX held low at ~15, and oil firmed as the Hormuz story developed.

What's next: Watch whether yields keep climbing and whether the software/memory pullback broadens or stays contained — that's the key swing factor for the "mildly bullish" regime holding.

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's macro-regime overlay reads Mildly Bullish, consistent with a low VIX (~16) and easing geopolitical risk premium in oil (WTI ~$75.88) — a backdrop of calm confidence rather than euphoria.

Conviction: 49.8/100 A near-neutral composite (1,423 names scored, only 2.9% flagged high-conviction) signals the model sees a broad, unremarkable opportunity set today — no strong tilt either way despite the constructive regime tag.

On the calendar today

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is slated to report quarterly results before the bell, while Airbnb (ABNB), Lyft (LYFT), and Cloudflare (NET) are scheduled to post earnings after the market closes. Wall Street is also watching a drop in July job cuts data, plus continued fallout from this week's heavy earnings slate.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock index futures showed a divergent trend during premarket trading Thursday, as investors navigated a heavy influx of corporate earnings. The first lockup of SpaceX (SPCX) shares is set to expire, with more than 900 million shares poised to enter the market; the stock was up 1.7% in premarket after closing nearly 14% higher the prior session. Peloton (PTON) shares tumbled nearly 15% in premarket after issuing disappointing revenue guidance despite beating on earnings.

What to watch 1. Whether the reported breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks over the Strait of Hormuz materializes into a formal deal. 2. SPCX float dynamics post-lockup expiration. 3. After-hours reactions in ABNB, LYFT, and NET following a volatile week for tech earnings.

*Educational content only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -1.87% today, well behind the S&P 500's -0.18% finish. The S&P 500 retreated from a record to close down nearly 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8% to snap a 4-day rally and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5% to post a new all-time high.

What drove the gap: The model's underperformance points to concentration risk in growth/momentum names that lagged the broader tape. Communication-services and consumer-tech holdings bore the brunt — Alphabet shares dropped roughly 4.2% and Uber fell about 6%, pressuring any model exposure there, while SpaceX shares dropped after its first earnings report as a public company, down over 13%. That drag outweighed pockets of strength like Nvidia, which soared more than 3% — a reminder that a 50-name, rules-based model can diverge sharply from cap-weighted SPY on single-day earnings reactions.

Market recap: Sentiment stayed mostly upbeat on Middle East diplomacy — US oil hovered near $75 as Iran said it agreed on a Hormuz shipping route with Oman, a step toward easing supply fears. VIX held low near 15.5, consistent with today's NEUTRAL regime read; conviction across QNTM's ~1,423-stock universe sat at a middling 50.0, with only 2.7% scoring high-conviction.

What's next: More earnings and Hormuz headlines into Thursday will likely keep single-name volatility elevated even as broad indices stay calm.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay is flagged RISK_OFF, tied to an active "war_escalation" macro event. That's a notable contrast with the tape's mood — a reminder that the model is pricing geopolitical tail risk even as headline sentiment looks upbeat.

Conviction: 50.2/100 A mid-point score with only 3.0% of the 1,423 names scored landing in high-conviction territory. Breadth is thin — the model isn't broadly bullish even where prices are near records.

On the calendar today Disney reports before the open (materials ~6:30am ET, call 8:30am ET) and Shopify also reports before the bell with an 8:30am ET call. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Disney, Shopify, Uber and AppLovin report, with Eli Lilly the largest name in focus; Sandisk reports after the close. Friday brings the July nonfarm payrolls report.

Overnight & premarket

Stocks extended a four-day rally as earnings pointed to a strong backdrop, while hopes rose for a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz; S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%. Arista Networks jumped as much as 14% on a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast, while SpaceX shares tumbled 11% premarket on concerns over heavy AI-related capex despite a strong earnings beat.

What to watch 1) Whether Qatar-mediated Iran talks hold — drafts of a potential US-Iran agreement are circulating even as Iran warns it won't allow shipments through the Strait of Hormuz outside its own route. 2) Reaction to Disney/Shopify earnings for consumer/e-commerce read-through. 3) Whether thin 3% high-conviction breadth foreshadows fragility into Friday's jobs data.

QNTM Day Wrap — August 4, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.05% today, trailing the SPY benchmark's +1.83% by roughly 78bps.

What drove the gap: Today's rally was heavily concentrated in a handful of mega-cap and event-driven names rather than broad-based. Information Technology was up 4%, boosted by Palantir, which surged 29% after beating earnings — its best day since February 2024. Coherent and Lumentum added 14% and 10% on reports the Trump administration is drafting a ban on Chinese data-center component imports. Amazon slipped ~2% after Jeff Bezos filed to sell roughly $4.1 billion of shares, capping gains in that name. QNTM's mean conviction score sat at a neutral 50.0 across 1,423 stocks, with only 3% flagged high-conviction — a signal the model's rules-based, 50-holding sleeve stayed diversified rather than piling into the single-name winners (Palantir, chip/photonics names) that supercharged the cap-weighted index today.

Market recap: Wall Street closed sharply higher to start August trading, primarily on a fall in crude oil prices tied to Middle East de-escalation, with strong economic data also boosting sentiment. WTI crude fell 5% on optimism a deal could avoid U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and the S&P 500 topped its June closing record. Separately, JOLTS data showed job openings slipped to 7.36 million in June, below the 7.6 million consensus.

Next: AMD and SpaceX earnings after the bell, plus continued watch on Iran negotiations, could set tone into Wednesday.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF even as headline indices sit near record highs — a signal that the model is pricing geopolitical tail risk (Middle East conflict) more heavily than the tape's current momentum.

Conviction: 49.0/100 A near-neutral composite with just 2.3% of the 1,423-name universe scoring high conviction — the model sees a market that's priced for good news (earnings) while flagging headline risk, not a broad "all clear."

On the calendar today Big tech earnings dominate: Palantir jumped 16% in premarket trading after raising its forecasts, with SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices due to report today. Attention also turns to results from Caterpillar, Merck and McDonald's. No major data prints today, but this week's data centers on the labor market, with all eyes on Friday's July jobs report.

Overnight & premarket

US stocks hovered near a record as investors turned focus to earnings after weeks of choppy trading spurred by tech-valuation concerns and the Middle East conflict. Monday, the Nasdaq surged 2.13%, S&P and Dow advanced 1.48% and 1.32%, with Amazon soaring 4.6% past a $3 trillion cap, alongside Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet and Tesla. Oil was climbing on fresh reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

What to watch 1) Whether oil's bounce off Hormuz headlines re-escalates into broader risk-off. 2) AMD and SpaceX earnings after the close — read-throughs for AI capex. 3) Friday's jobs report as the next catalyst for rate expectations.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Post-Close Wrap — Monday, August 3, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio was roughly flat today (-0.13%), lagging SPY's 1.5% Nasdaq-led surge, with the Dow up 1.3% to a record close. That's a wide ~1.6-point gap for one session.

What drove it: The rally was narrow and mega-cap-driven — top semiconductor names Micron and Broadcom retreated, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.9%, while gains concentrated in software/consumer and hyperscaler names; August began with a mild rally led not by the usual chip suspects but instead by software and consumer names. With 50 equal-ish-weighted holdings across QNTM's five-pillar screen, the model's chip and value exposure offset gains elsewhere, capping upside versus a cap-weighted SPY dominated by a handful of giants (Amazon crossed a $3T market cap today).

Market recap: Indices jumped after a turn toward diplomacy in the war between the US and Iran lifted sentiment, with oil falling after Trump said he called off an attack to negotiate opening the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ also approved a production quota increase of about 188,000 barrels a day from September, adding to crude's slide (WTI ~$80). VIX sat low at 15.8, consistent with the calmer tape.

What's next: Markets turn to a jobs report and a stacked earnings week, including Caterpillar Tuesday — key tests for whether today's risk-on tone holds. This is research, not a recommendation.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, flagging the ongoing Iran war as an active macro risk even as headlines turn more hopeful — a "trust, but verify" backdrop for today's session.

Conviction: 49.1/100 With only 2.2% of the 1,423-name universe in high-conviction territory, the model shows a neutral-to-cautious tilt — no broad-based signal to lean aggressively long or short today.

On the calendar today No FOMC event. This week's focus is labor data: JOLTS, weekly jobless claims and Friday's July jobs report are the key releases, with Palantir (PLTR) scheduled to report earnings after Monday's closing bell. SpaceX (SPCX), AMD, McDonald's and Disney are among the companies reporting results this week.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were climbing and oil prices were falling Monday as WTI crude fell 6.21% to $79.41 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 5.11% to $83.24, after Trump said new talks with Iran would begin Monday, after calling off "massive" strikes against the country. SpaceX shares were falling nearly 2% in premarket trading ahead of Tuesday's earnings.

What to watch 1) Whether Iran talks (set for this afternoon) hold — Iran's foreign ministry has disputed that talks are confirmed. 2) Follow-through in oil after Friday's spike and today's sharp reversal. 3) PLTR earnings after the close, an early tech-earnings tone-setter.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ending August 1, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.47% this week vs. +1.07% for SPY — a modest lag as the benchmark's mega-cap concentration paid off.

What drove it: Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold — the Fed held rates steady with three FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike — sent the Dow down more than 1,100 points as oil rose on renewed Middle East tensions and long-dated yields climbed. WTI closed near $84.67, consistent with the "war_escalation" flag in our data. Thursday reversed hard: momentum staged one of its best days ever, with the iShares Momentum ETF (MTUM) up 5.5%, following relief that the Situational Awareness hedge fund unwind appeared to be over. QNTM's diversified, equal-weight structure captured less of that snapback than cap-weighted SPY, whose mega-cap tech (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple earnings week) provided outsized lift. Semiconductor/AI-hardware names remained the widest swing factor for both books.

Macro backdrop: Our regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF as hawkish Fed signaling combined with geopolitical escalation. Despite the volatility, VIX stayed contained near 16, and conviction across our 1,423-name universe sits at just 49.2 (only 2% high-conviction), reflecting a genuinely mixed, low-visibility tape.

Next week: July nonfarm payrolls are expected near 87,500 with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%, alongside continued earnings from Caterpillar, Palantir, and Merck.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 31, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.06% today, trailing SPY's +0.67% by roughly 60bps — a rare underperformance day.

What drove it: QNTM's macro overlay flipped to RISK_OFF ahead of the close, reflecting the fifth macro flag this month tied to war escalation. Oil prices turned higher as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz began to falter following a recent reescalation in hostilities, with WTI near $85 and Brent near $90. With WTI at $84.88, the model's regime logic trimmed exposure to cyclical/high-beta names — capping upside just as the tape rallied. Meanwhile, only 2.0% of the 1,423-stock universe screened "high conviction" today (mean composite 49.2, essentially neutral), leaving the 50-name model portfolio thin on offense. That mattered because the index's gain was narrow and mega-cap-driven: Amazon stock surged nearly 13% after the company beat earnings expectations, while Apple shares tumbled 7.2% as its Services and China revenue fell short. A model built for breadth, not single-stock concentration, doesn't capture a one-name-driven pop like Amazon's.

Market recap: The S&P 500 gained 0.67%, the Dow rose 0.38–0.5%, the Nasdaq advanced roughly 1%, and the Russell 2000 increased 1.37%. The 10-year Treasury note reached 4.737% intraday, its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year hovered near 5.22%, a level last seen in 2007 — a headwind investors mostly shrugged off.

Next: Watch whether rising long-term yields and Mideast oil-supply risk force the regime overlay to stay defensive into next week, or whether conviction breadth improves as earnings season winds down.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay stays defensive even as equities rally — a reminder that price momentum and geopolitical risk aren't the same thing.

Conviction: 49.2/100 A near-neutral average with only 2.1% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction" — QNTM's pillars see broad-based uncertainty, not a clear directional signal.

On the calendar today Markets are still digesting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed left interest rates unchanged. Weekly jobless claims data, personal income and spending, and the PCE and core PCE inflation indexes are due Thursday-Friday — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Big Tech earnings dominate: Amazon shares surged over 11% in premarket after beating Wall Street's Q2 earnings, while Apple shares fell after results failed to meet lofty expectations, and Microsoft rallied over 15% following its own report.

Overnight & premarket

Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1% after South Korea's KOSPI jumped 14% overnight, triggering trading halts; Dow futures rose 0.5% and S&P 500 futures moved up 0.3%. Gold fell 1.21% to $4,110.10/oz while WTI crude rose 0.77% to $84.23/barrel.

What to watch 1) Follow-through (or fade) in AI-capex names after this week's earnings swings; 2) any fresh Iran-US headlines given the "war escalation" flag and oil's sensitivity to it; 3) today's PCE print for clues on the Fed's next move.

QNTM Day Wrap — July 30, 2026

Model vs. Benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio returned +0.27% today, badly trailing SPY's +1.68%. A roughly 140bp lag on one session is a big divergence for this strategy.

What drove it: The market's overlay flagged RISK_OFF today (VIX 17.6, oil $83.62) amid "tariff_broad" and "war_escalation" macro flags — a fitting backdrop given renewed Middle East fighting came hours after President Trump threatened to escalate the war as it enters its sixth month. With conviction sitting at just 49.2 and only 2.5% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction," QNTM's rules kept the book defensively tilted. That positioning missed the session's real driver: a narrow, mega-cap-tech snapback. Microsoft surged nearly 12% after posting 43% growth in cloud revenues, the most since 2022, combined with capex forecasts that didn't outpace expectations, and Lam Research surged 14.1% after reporting record quarterly revenue and earnings. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 lost 1.61% even as large-cap tech ripped — exactly the kind of concentrated, mega-cap-led move a broad, rules-based 50-holding book tends to underparticipate in during a risk-off regime.

Market recap: US equities rebounded Thursday from sharp losses the prior day, with the S&P 500 and Dow gaining over 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.5%, a bounce after Wednesday's Fed-hold selloff.

What's next: Apple and Amazon earnings, plus GDP/PCE data, will test whether the tech-led rebound has legs.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads Risk-Off, consistent with the war-escalation flag in today's model — a backdrop where credit and volatility inputs are being weighted more heavily than growth momentum.

Conviction: 49.2/100 A near-neutral reading (3.1% of the 1,423-name universe screening "high conviction") signals the model sees more idiosyncratic risk than broad directional edge right now — no strong tilt long or short across the scored universe.

On the calendar today

Q2 GDP first estimate, June PCE prices, June core PCE prices, and June personal spending and income are due, alongside earnings from Mastercard, Bristol-Myers, Altria, Southern, Sanofi, and Stryker. Weekly jobless claims and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge also land today. Amazon and Apple report after the close.

Overnight & premarket

The Fed left rates unchanged Wednesday, but Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year climbing above 5.2%, its highest since 2007. Microsoft surged nearly 10% premarket after beating estimates on Azure strength, while Meta fell 8.4% after missing EPS estimates and guiding Q3 revenue below analyst expectations. Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P futures 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% after Wednesday's correction in chips.

What to watch 1) PCE inflation vs. Fed's hold stance amid three hawkish dissents (per market reports). 2) Oil/yield reaction to renewed Iran strikes feeding the Risk-Off regime. 3) Apple/Amazon earnings after the bell — read-through for mega-cap breadth.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 29, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell 0.32% today, meaningfully outperforming SPY's 1.5% decline — a wide gap driven by the model's risk-off positioning.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF overnight after Iran's renewed strikes, and conviction across the 1,423-stock universe sank to 49.1, with just 2.5% of names scoring "high conviction." That low-conviction signal kept the model light on the sectors that got hit hardest today — tech and semiconductors. South Korea's exchange triggered a circuit breaker as the Kospi plunged 8%, with SK Hynix and Samsung tanking nearly 13% and 8%, and Asian technology stocks extended their sell-off Wednesday, with semiconductor names leading declines after another weak session in the U.S. That chip-led weakness is a much larger drag on cap-weighted SPY than on QNTM's more selectively screened book.

Market recap: The Dow traded about 2.1% lower for its worst decline since April 2025, the S&P 500 slid 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%. The proximate triggers: Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces; all were intercepted, but the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck back at Iran-backed groups in Iraq, sending WTI toward $84-85. Separately, stocks tumbled largely because the bond market signaled the Fed could be falling behind on inflation after it chose to hold rates unchanged, with the 10-year yield jumping to above 4.66%.

What's next: Markets will digest new Fed Chair Warsh's guidance and watch for further Middle East developments; oil-driven inflation risk remains the key swing factor for rate expectations.

*Educational content only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads Risk-Off, consistent with a session where geopolitical shock and rate uncertainty are competing with still-firm equity futures — a "climb a wall of worry" setup rather than outright capitulation.

Conviction: 49.4/100 Conviction sits almost exactly at the midpoint of the model's 0-100 scale, with only 2.5% of the ~1,423-name scored universe registering high conviction. That's a neutral-to-cautious signal: the model finds few names with a clean, multi-pillar edge today, and breadth of strong setups is thin.

On the calendar today The Fed's rate decision lands at 2:00 p.m. ET, with the market assigning about a 30% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase; no updated economic projections accompany this meeting. Earnings are heavy after the close: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and Starbucks report, alongside Procter & Gamble and General Dynamics before the bell.

Overnight & premarket

Oil surged as fresh fighting erupted in the Middle East, with Brent climbing more than 4% to near $88 a barrel after U.S. oil futures rose late Tuesday after Central Command said American forces intercepted an attack from Iran, with WTI last up 4.4% at $82.73. Jordan's military intercepted five missiles from Iran, and joint US-Saudi strikes hit Iran-allied forces in Iraq, with at least 20 reported killed. Despite that, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat after the latest chip selloff. In single names, Ford surged nearly 4% after-hours on an earnings beat and raised outlook, while Visa fell more than 1% on weaker guidance.

What to watch 1) The 2 p.m. Fed decision/press conference given real odds priced for a hike amid oil-driven inflation risk. 2) Whether Middle East escalation further pressures crude and energy-sensitive sectors. 3) After-hours Mega-cap tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta) for read-through on AI capex following the chipmaker correction scare.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio gained 0.38% today versus SPY's 0.23%, a modest ~15bp edge in a session dominated by a rotation away from semiconductors.

What drove it: Markets stayed in QNTM's RISK_OFF regime, with conviction at just 49.2 across 1,423 scored names and only 2.5% flagged high-conviction — a cautious, concentrated 49-holding book. Nine of eleven S&P sectors traded higher, led by a 3.7% jump in Consumer Staples on Coca-Cola earnings, plus gains in healthcare and materials, while technology tumbled roughly 3.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 6%. Micron, Nvidia, SanDisk, AMD and SK Hynix all posted steep losses as fears over circular AI-financing arrangements resurfaced. A lighter tilt toward that beaten-down chip complex — consistent with the model's defensive posture under the tariff overlay — likely explains most of today's edge over the cap-weighted, tech-heavy SPY.

Market recap: The S&P 500 slipped 0.17% from Monday's close, hovering near 7,400, while the Nasdaq 100 has now corrected roughly 10% this month with semis down over 23%. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei fell 3.95% and South Korea's Kospi dropped 10.84% on the tech rout. Fresh U.S. tariff actions added to the cautious tone.

What's next: All eyes turn to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and a wave of megacap tech earnings, both likely to set direction into month-end.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX at 18.93 — elevated but not panicked, consistent with a market digesting fresh tariff action and a fragile geopolitical de-escalation rather than an acute shock.

Conviction: 48.9/100 A near-neutral score with only 2.3% of the 1,423-stock universe screening high-conviction — the model sees little broad-based opportunity today and is leaning defensive/selective rather than aggressive.

On the calendar today

The July 2026 FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting held Tuesday, July 28 and Wednesday, July 29, with the policy decision on the 29th. The rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, with the statement released first, followed by the Chair's press conference. This week also brings the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) and weekly jobless claims. Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, July 29th, with Apple and Amazon following Thursday, July 30th.

Overnight & premarket

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 3.95% lower, while South Korea's Kospi fell 10.84%, hit by a semiconductor rout — Kospi heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix dropped 13.4% and over 14.7%, respectively. U.S. chip stocks followed: Micron down over 4% premarket, Nvidia down ~1.2%, Intel and AMD off more than 3%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.73%. Oil sits near $81 WTI.

What to watch 1) Whether U.S. chip stocks stabilize or extend the Asia-led selloff. 2) Fed meeting kickoff tone ahead of Wednesday's decision. 3) Iran mediation developments — Trump says if mediation fails the U.S. resumes bombing, and meets Netanyahu at the White House today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 27, 2026

The model portfolio (44 holdings) returned +0.18% today versus a roughly flat SPY, a modest ~16bp edge in a session where the S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18, up 1.20 points, or +0.02%.

What drove it: The gap traces to sector positioning. Chipmakers were the day's weak spot — NVDA fell nearly 5% as renewed AI-valuation concerns weighed on markets ahead of this week's hyperscaler earnings. QNTM's model carries limited exposure there, so it avoided most of the Nasdaq drag. Meanwhile, communications and consumer defensive stocks were among today's top-performing sectors while technology and energy sectors lagged — energy softened as the same catalyst that lifted risk sentiment (oil's plunge) cut into producer margins. That trade was geopolitical: oil fell and bonds gained with stocks as the US and Iran refrained from further strikes, with Brent dropping as much as 7.4% before paring losses, consistent with QNTM's "war de-escalation" macro flag and WTI settling near $82.

Market recap: The Dow gained almost 0.5% while the S&P 500 was little changed, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 0.2% as oil's slide offset tech weakness at the start of the busiest earnings week of the quarter. VIX eased to ~18.8, and QNTM's conviction score sits at a subdued 48.9 with just 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe flagged high-conviction — reflecting a market still digesting mixed signals.

Next up: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon earnings and the Fed decision loom this week — likely volatility catalysts.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX at 17.66 and WTI near $83.45. New tariffs took effect just after midnight ET Friday on dozens of countries over alleged forced-labor violations, keeping trade policy squarely in the "risk-off" bucket even as broader risk appetite firms up this morning.

Conviction: 48.5/100 A near-neutral reading with only 1.6% of the 1,423-stock universe in high-conviction territory — the model sees a mixed, low-clarity setup rather than a broad tailwind or headwind for individual names today.

On the calendar today No major U.S. data due Monday, but this is one of the busiest periods of the second-quarter earnings season, with Microsoft and Meta reporting on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday, plus Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford, and PayPal. The FOMC meets Wednesday, with policymakers widely expected to hold rates steady; investors will watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, plus the advance Q2 GDP estimate, June PCE inflation, and durable goods orders later this week.

Overnight & premarket

Futures surged Monday morning as oil sank, with Dow futures up 1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.9%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up roughly 1.4% after a choppy prior week. Sentiment got a lift as the US and Iran paused fighting over the weekend, and oil prices tumbled over 7%.

What to watch 1) Tariff headlines/retaliation from trading partners on the new forced-labor duties. 2) Wednesday's Fed decision and Warsh's tone. 3) Big Tech earnings starting midweek, given their index weight.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — week ending July 25, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.92% this week versus SPY's -0.43%, a roughly 2.4-point edge across 44 holdings, while QNTM's regime engine flipped to RISK_OFF (VIX 18.7, conviction score 48.4 on 1,423 names scored, only 1.5% rated high-conviction).

Drivers: Wednesday was the week's worst session for the broad market — the tech-heavy index was bogged down by a 7% drop in Alphabet and a 14% loss in Tesla following their earnings reports, while oil prices put more pressure on stocks, as they soared after Yemen's Houthi militant group claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. Chips stayed weak into Friday, as a gauge of semiconductor firms sank 4.3% and the Nasdaq 100 fell over 1%, even as a 3.5% jump in Apple boosted the blue-chip index. QNTM's lighter mega-cap/semis weighting relative to SPY's benchmark composition likely limited drag from those names.

Macro backdrop: The two flags behind RISK_OFF were tariffs and war. New tariffs applying to 60 trade partners, covering over 99% of U.S. trade, were imposed by the Trump administration just after midnight ET Friday, layered on an already-jittery tape from Middle East escalation and oil volatility.

Next week: Markets remain unsettled ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, with investors uncertain whether Kevin Warsh will back a rate increase, alongside earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Apple.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.88% today versus +0.10% for SPY, a solid ~78bp edge in a choppy, headline-driven tape.

What drove it: QNTM flagged a RISK_OFF regime overnight (WTI $89.63, VIX 18.9) after Trump's new tariff round and Middle East escalation. That kept the model's concentrated 46-name book tilted toward quality/value and away from semiconductors and AI-capex-linked megacaps — the session's weak spots. A gauge of semiconductor firms sank 4.4% while most other S&P 500 shares actually rose, and communications services and consumer discretionary stocks came under heavy selling pressure amid mounting geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. By having limited exposure to that pocket of the market, QNTM's book benefited from broader-market breadth rather than the narrow tech drag.

Market recap: It was a two-way session. The S&P 500 moved into negative territory early, weighed down by chip stocks, then stocks moved higher after Reuters reported Pakistan is considering brokering new U.S.-Iran peace talks, which pulled oil off its highs. The Dow gained 232 points, boosted by a 3% jump in Apple. This followed Thursday's sharper selloff, when oil surged to $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, and Trump replaced expiring tariffs with a new round.

What's next: Conviction sits low (49.1, only 2.6% high-conviction names), so watch for follow-through on any Iran de-escalation headlines and next week's earnings/tariff clarity. Educational only — not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's models flipped defensive as new broad-based tariffs took effect and Red Sea tanker attacks reignited war-risk premia in energy — a classic double-shock setup that typically compresses risk appetite across the scored universe.

Conviction: 48.8/100 Right at the coin-flip line, with only 2.0% of the ~1,423 names scored as high-conviction — signaling the model sees very few stocks with a clean, multi-pillar edge today; breadth of opportunity is thin.

On the calendar today Before the bell: American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, plus SLB, Charter, CNI, HCA and others. Economic data to watch includes S&P Global's flash PMI updates on services and manufacturing for July, and new home sales.

Overnight & premarket

Thursday marked the S&P 500's worst single-day performance in a month on geopolitical risk and AI-spending concerns after Alphabet's earnings, while Brent crude briefly topped $100/barrel after attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Nasdaq-100 futures were roughly flat Friday as markets tried to stabilize after Thursday's megacap tech sell-off, with Brent easing back below $99. Treasury yields retreated Friday after briefly hitting the highest level since January 2025 the prior day.

What to watch 1) Whether oil holds below $100 or the Red Sea situation escalates further. 2) 10-year yield direction near the 4.7% level. 3) Follow-through (or reversal) in AI/megacap tech after Thursday's rout.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 23, 2026

Model vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio slipped just -0.09% today, sharply outperforming SPY's -1.2% decline — a wide, one-day gap of roughly 110 basis points.

What drove it: Today's SPY loss was concentrated in a handful of mega-caps reporting earnings. Alphabet lifted its 2026 capex forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion, up from a prior $180–190 billion range, reigniting investor caution about hyperscaler AI spending, and the stock fell sharply alongside declines in Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Amazon. Tesla dropped 14% after posting a big Q2 earnings miss, with operating expenses rising faster than revenue. Because SPY is cap-weighted, these few names disproportionately dragged the index down. QNTM's model, spread across 50 positions with no single-stock concentration in that magnitude, largely sidestepped the damage from this narrow mega-cap air-pocket.

Market recap: The Dow fell about 1%, the S&P 500 dropped roughly 1.2-1.4%, and the Nasdaq lost about 2.2-2.3%. Oil prices also pressured stocks after Yemen's Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, adding geopolitical risk to an already earnings-heavy session.

QNTM read: Conviction sits at 48.5 (neutral), with only 1.7% of the 1,423-name universe screening as high-conviction — consistent with a cautious, earnings-driven tape.

What's next: More Big Tech and industrial earnings land through Friday; watch for whether AI-capex jitters spread further or stabilize.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flipped to Risk-Off, consistent with a VIX near 18 and crude near $91 WTI. One-line read: with oil spiking on war-escalation headlines, the model is favoring defense over offense today.

Conviction: 48.8/100 Mean composite sits at 48.8 across 1,423 names scored, with only 1.8% screening as high-conviction — a neutral-to-cautious tape where the model finds few names with a clean, multi-pillar edge.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims were due at 8:30am ET, with consensus at 212K versus a prior 208K. It's otherwise a light macro day — the calendar is relatively light ahead of the next Fed meeting, which runs July 28-29. Earnings are heavy, with 183 companies reporting Thursday, following Tesla and Alphabet's after-hours reports Wednesday.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock futures fell, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures each sliding roughly 0.4%, pressured by results from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM along with ongoing geopolitical unrest. Tesla shares fell 5.9% to $352.10 in premarket after a Q2 profit miss, with revenue up 26% to $28.24B but operating income down 57%. Crude jumped after reports of attacks on tankers off Saudi Arabia and renewed U.S. threats to escalate strikes against Iran. Asia was firmer overnight as the Kospi rose 2.8% and Samsung and SK Hynix each gained more than 3% on AI-spending optimism.

What to watch 1) Oil's trajectory as Middle East tensions evolve intraday. 2) Reaction in AI/chip and energy names to overnight moves. 3) Broader earnings tape given ~180 reports today, which could offset or extend the Alphabet/Tesla-driven tone.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 22, 2026

The model portfolio fell -0.48% today versus SPY's roughly flat -0.03%, a meaningful gap given the RISK_OFF regime flagged this morning (VIX ~16.9, WTI ~$86.92).

What drove it: Wall Street investors bracing for the start of big-tech earnings sent stocks wavering while worries about an escalation of the Iran war boosted oil prices, with losses in most megacaps offsetting a rebound in chipmakers as Nvidia climbed 3%; software firms got hit again. That software/AI-software weakness is where the model's underperformance likely concentrated: Palantir shares declined 6.4%, erasing $22 billion in market cap on worries about its steep valuation, following a negative signal in the software sector highlighting postponed AI investments, and Reddit slipped 5.9% on reports it's reconsidering its Google AI data-licensing deal, raising questions about effects on core operations. A model with above-benchmark weight in high-momentum software names would lag a cap-weighted SPY that got partial offset from chip strength.

Market recap: Oil extended gains after Trump played down near-term Iran talks while threatening broader strikes, with Brent near $92 and WTI above $85. Adding to the risk-off tone, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on specific Canadian goods amid renewed inflation concerns.

What's next: With Alphabet and Tesla earnings due after the bell, headline reactions there — plus any further Iran/tariff developments — are likely to set tomorrow's tone. QNTM's high-conviction share stayed thin (1.6%), reflecting broad caution across the scored universe. This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's regime overlay reads NEUTRAL — a market pulled two ways by de-escalating Middle East tensions and renewed tariff headlines, with no clear directional edge for stock-picking factors today.

Conviction: 49.4/100 At 49.4 across 1,423 scored names (2.2% at high conviction), the model sees a roughly coin-flip opportunity set — few standout setups, consistent with a market digesting mixed catalysts rather than trending.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting (next is July 29) and no major US data print scheduled. Earnings are the story: AT&T, Philip Morris, GE Vernova, Moody's and Cal-Maine report before the open; Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow and CSX report after the close. UK CPI is the notable overseas data point.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures fell as investors looked ahead to another busy day of earnings, pressured by a rise in oil prices; Brent topped $95 and WTI climbed above $87 on continued US-Iran strikes, before easing on reports of a possible ten-day pause in strikes. Tuesday's session saw semiconductor strength lift the Nasdaq despite renewed tariff uncertainty, with a proposed 50% tariff on Canadian goods in focus. Texas Instruments rose ahead of today's results.

What to watch 1) Alphabet/Tesla earnings after the close — first Mag-7 reads this week. 2) Whether oil holds gains or fades further on de-escalation headlines, given WTI's ~$87 handle. 3) Follow-through (or fade) in the chip-led rally after Tuesday's SOX surge.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.34% today, nearly 50bps ahead of SPY's +0.85%. Both benchmark and model finished well into positive territory even though QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF conditions (broad tariffs, war escalation) — a reminder that the macro-risk read and same-day price action can diverge.

What drove it: The outperformance tracked back to the model's tilt toward AI/semiconductor names, the session's clear leadership group. Stocks gained momentum Tuesday as investors braced for tech earnings amid signs of a chip-stock revival, with fresh US tariffs on Canada and Middle East hostilities also in focus. A standout mover was Nebius, which jumped 18.78% after Nvidia disclosed a stake in the company, part of a broader semis rebound that lifted the model's tech book more than the SPY-wide average. Energy-adjacent and tariff-exposed positions were the drag, as the Trump administration moved to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over alcohol, auto and dairy trade issues.

Market recap: The S&P 500 rose 0.89%, the Dow gained 0.74%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.29%, and the VIX fell to 16.89. Oil stayed elevated — crude rose above $83/barrel as the US carried out a 10th consecutive day of strikes on Iran, which responded with strikes on Kuwait, even as ceasefire talk circulated.

What's next: Megacap earnings begin Wednesday with Tesla and Alphabet — a key test for whether AI spending can justify current valuations.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, and that lines up with the tape: markets are digesting fresh tariff actions and an escalating Middle East conflict even as VIX sits a relatively calm 17.72.

Conviction: 49.0/100 A near-50 composite with only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe in high-conviction territory signals a broadly neutral, low-signal environment — the model isn't finding many stocks with strong multi-factor alignment right now.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting today, but Fed-funds futures are pricing an 83.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged at July's meeting (later this month). Earnings flow is heavy, including Equifax, 3M, Atlassian, CrowdStrike, Waste Management, and Danaher, with markets also bracing for the coming wave of Big Tech and chip results.

Overnight & premarket

Futures rose as investors braced for earnings amid a chip-stock revival, with fresh US tariffs on Canada and Middle East hostilities also in focus; Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.3%. Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, and U.S. forces carried out new strikes on Iranian targets. Asian markets closed mixed — Hong Kong and India fell while China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan rose. WTI eased near $82, while gold rose about 1.5% toward $4,067/oz.

What to watch 1) Middle East headlines and oil-price swings given the Houthi blockade threat. 2) Semiconductor/AI names into this week's Big Tech earnings wave. 3) Tariff-related sector reaction, especially industrials and materials.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, July 20, 2026

QNTM's rules-based model portfolio edged down 0.03% today, outperforming SPY's 0.21% decline by about 18 basis points. Small win, but notable given the backdrop.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to RISK_OFF overnight as the model's macro overlay reacted to the "war_escalation" flag — the U.S. completed its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran overnight. With average conviction at just 49.3 and only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction," the model's 50-holding portfolio stayed defensively tilted and lighter on the mega-cap tech names that whipsawed benchmarks intraday. That mattered: the S&P 500 traded down 0.1% while the Dow lost 0.6%, dragged by more than a 1% loss in Apple, even as the Nasdaq rose on oil-price fluctuations tied to the Iran conflict, with chipmakers giving the index a boost. QNTM's underweight to that volatile Apple/mega-cap complex helped it avoid the worst of the Dow's drag.

Market recap: WTI crude settled near $82.78, and U.S. gas prices again surged to an average of $4 a gallon as Middle East tensions intensified. The VIX rose to around 18.6-18.77, a modest fear-gauge pickup consistent with QNTM's risk-off shift. Investors are watching upcoming AI-spending earnings, with Alphabet reporting July 22.

What's next: Watch for follow-through on Iran headlines and whether tech earnings can stabilize the recent AI-stock volatility.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF for the July 20 session — a defensive posture reflecting geopolitical shock risk rather than a broad growth scare.

Conviction: 54/100 The mean composite of 54 across 1,000 scored names, with only 17% screening high-conviction, points to a narrow, cautious tape — the model sees pockets of opportunity but no broad "all clear."

On the calendar today No major Fed or CPI/PCE prints today. Earnings season is accelerating this week with reports from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel and several major industrial and consumer companies due over coming sessions.

Overnight & premarket

The U.S

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 17, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.37% today vs. SPY at -0.91%, a roughly 128 bps edge in a broad down session — one of the model's better relative days this month.

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector positioning. The Dow fell about 0.7%, the S&P 500 declined 1%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.4% as the major indexes posted weekly losses led by declines in the semiconductor sector. The PHLX Semiconductor Index entered a bear market, with Micron and Intel dropping over 4% and Nvidia down roughly 2-4% depending on the tape. QNTM's model — scanning ~1,000 names with a value/quality/momentum blend, not a cap-weighted tech tilt — carried lighter chip exposure into the session, sidestepping the worst of that leg down. On the earnings front, Netflix sank 11% after it forecast another quarter of slowing sales, another name the model held underweight. Meanwhile top gainers were Travelers Companies, UnitedHealth and Walmart — the kind of value/quality names the model's factor tilt favors — helping offset broad-market weakness.

Market recap: Chinese AI start-up Moonshot's Kimi K3 model release added to investor unease about U.S. tech spending, while oil prices rose amid escalating Middle East tensions, with WTI crude gaining to around $82/barrel. VIX ticked up to ~18.8, still a moderate-vol regime.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, aligning with a session marked by renewed Mideast conflict and a stalling AI trade — a backdrop favoring defensive positioning over aggressive exposure.

Conviction: 54.5/100 With only 18.1% of the 1,000-name scored universe registering high-conviction signals, the model reflects a cautious, split tape rather than broad-based opportunity.

On the calendar today

June's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data will be released by 9:15 a.m., and July's preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Survey data will be out by 10:00 a.m. Housing Starts and Import/Export Price Index also post at 8:30 a.m. Earnings reaction is dominating: Netflix stock declined by over 10% in premarket trading after the company's third quarter revenue forecast disappointed the Street, while Intuitive Surgical dropped 9.28% despite posting better-than-expected second-quarter results.

Overnight & premarket

Nasdaq-100 contracts shed around 1.6% following a downbeat day on Wall Street and the release of the world's most powerful open AI model. Dow and S&P futures also fell. Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Hong Kong, China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan indices falling; European markets were mostly lower in early trade. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities after the end of a ceasefire have pushed energy prices higher, raising fears pricing pressure could persist rather than pass through.

What to watch 1) Semiconductor follow-through after a fresh open-source AI model rattled valuations; 2) Oil-driven inflation risk tied to the Mideast escalation; 3) Whether weak Michigan sentiment confirms consumer strain alongside earnings misses.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 16, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.47% today, modestly ahead of SPY's -0.52%. With conviction at 54.2 (neutral regime) and only 17.5% of the 1,000-name scored universe flagged high-conviction, the model's 50-name book stayed defensively concentrated — and that light tilt away from mega-cap semis is likely what limited the damage relative to the benchmark.

What drove it: The session's pain was almost entirely a chip story. The S&P 500 fell as a sell-off in chip stocks overshadowed a raft of solid earnings reports, with the Nasdaq Composite losing 1.4%. Micron, AMD, Sandisk, Intel, and Broadcom dropped around 3% even after strong TSMC numbers, as skepticism that AI hyperscalers could slow infrastructure spending was compounded by Korea prohibiting leveraged ETFs and signals of more efficient machines from ASML. A quant model without heavy semiconductor concentration would have avoided the worst of that leg down, explaining the relative outperformance versus SPY. On the offset side, UnitedHealth surged 7% after beating earnings and raising its full-year guidance — a name QNTM's quality/value pillars have favored — helping cushion holdings exposed elsewhere.

Market recap: US stocks fell on pressure from chip producers and risks of a hawkish Federal Reserve, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 off more than 1%. Treasury yields rose as the U.S. continued striking Iran and crude stayed near recent highs, while June retail sales

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by the flagged "war_escalation" event — crude prices perked up after U.S. Central Command said the U.S. launched more attacks against Iran, with WTI futures near $80.21 a barrel. Despite the label, VIX at 16.33 shows options markets aren't pricing panic — a mixed signal worth watching.

Conviction: 54/100 A near-neutral reading (1,000 names scored, 15.6% high-conviction) suggests the model sees a balanced, non-extreme setup — neither broad-based strength nor weakness across the five pillars.

On the calendar today 8:30am ET: June retail sales, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Pending home sales (m/m) at 16:00 GMT, consensus -0.5% vs prior 3.8%. UnitedHealth reports before the bell and Netflix after the close.

Overnight & premarket

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,572.40; futures were down 0.1% early Thursday. TSMC's results failed to generate optimism in after-hours trading, with shares down 1.4%, pressuring chip names. June PPI fell 0.3%, beating expectations for no change, while core PPI rose 0.2% versus a 0.3% forecast.

What to watch 1) Retail sales — a soft print could reinforce rate-cut bets but stoke growth worries; 2) Strait of Hormuz developments and oil price follow-through; 3) Netflix earnings reaction after the bell, a bellwether for mega-cap tech sentiment.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — July 15, 2026

QNTM's 50-stock model portfolio slipped -0.84% today while SPY gained +0.34%, a roughly 1.2-point miss. With only 50 concentrated names versus a 1,000-stock scored universe (conviction 53.9, 16.1% high-conviction), single-name drag matters — and today it did.

What drove it: Broad tech led the tape, but not evenly. Arista Networks lost $15.4 billion in market cap as insider selling by CEO Jayshree Ullal and other executives pressured the stock, dropping 6.6% intraday on valuation concerns despite bullish analyst commentary. Meanwhile investors rotated out of chipmakers and into mega-cap tech — Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple rallied while Micron fell 7%, Lam Research dropped over 4%, and Intel and AMD slid 5% and 3%. A model tilted toward momentum/AI-infrastructure names likely absorbed both the Arista-specific hit and the semiconductor rotation, offsetting gains elsewhere in the book.

Market recap: The S&P 500 rose to 7,574, up 0.40%, as US stock indices rose amid signs that the war in Iran has not been as inflationary as feared. June PPI slowed more than expected, echoing cooler CPI data that showed the largest single-month inflation decline since April

Market Regime: RISK_OFF. Oil-driven geopolitical stress (US-Iran escalation) is overriding a constructive inflation backdrop, keeping QNTM's macro overlay defensive even as equity indexes hold near highs.

Conviction: 54.0/100, with 15.6% of the 1,000-name scored universe in high-conviction territory. A reading near the neutral midpoint signals a balanced, low-clarity setup — no strong broad-based tilt either way.

On the calendar today: Empire State Index and Producer Price Index (June) at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus the Fed's Beige Book. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the second day of his monetary-policy testimony to Congress. Earnings include Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, Elevance Health, M&T Bank, BlackRock, United Airlines, J.B. Hunt, and Cintas.

Overnight & premarket: At 6:09 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up 108 points (0.2%), S&P 500 futures up 13.5 points (0.18%), Nasdaq 100 futures up 136.75 points (0.46%). ASML rose 3.8% premarket after raising its 2026 forecasts on AI demand. PayPal jumped 18.5% premarket on reports of a $53 billion takeover offer from Stripe and Advent International. Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel, advancing for a third session after Trump threatened additional strikes on Iran after reinstating a blockade; WTI sits near $80.

What to watch: 1. PPI/Beige Book vs. Warsh's tone — Tuesday's soft CPI cut the odds of a July hike to 17% from 42%; hawkish surprises could reprice that. 2. Oil/Hormuz headlines — Trump has threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export hub, a risk for energy-sensitive sectors. 3. Bank/healthcare earnings reaction following Tuesday's strong bank results.

QNTM Day Wrap — July 14, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.13% today versus +0.40% for SPY, a ~73bp outperformance day, with conviction sitting at a middling 53.8 across 1,000 scored names (NEUTRAL regime, VIX 16.4).

What drove it: The gap likely traces to sector positioning rather than a single mega-cap bet. Real Money moved into semis and select tech/growth after cooler CPI, and Nasdaq's outsized gain (+0.90% vs. Dow's +0.02%) suggests names with momentum/quality tilts — the kind QNTM's model favors — carried the day. Tower Semiconductor and CleanSpark jumped on upbeat company-specific news, the type of idiosyncratic mover that can lift a concentrated 50-name book. Meanwhile IBM shares plunged roughly 25% after the hybrid cloud products provider issued an earnings warning — a stock a value/quality screen would typically underweight, sparing the model that drag that hit the Dow.

Market recap: Investors parsed a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report, which showed that inflation rose 3.5% in June on an annualized basis, below economists' expectations of 3.8%. The CPI fell 0.4% from May, dragged down by the biggest decline in gasoline prices since 2022. Bank earnings kicked off the season with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo posting solid, yet mixed and unspectacular results. Oil stayed elevated (WTI ~$79.58) on lingering Iran-Hormuz tensions.

Next: Watch continued Q2 bank/tech earnings and any follow-through in oil given the ongoing Strait

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay sits in RISK_OFF, flagging a hawkish Fed tone alongside tentative war de-escalation signals — a mixed backdrop where defensive positioning still dominates despite hopes for a Middle East cooling-off.

Conviction: 54.1/100 A reading just above the neutral midpoint across roughly 1,000 scored names, with only 15.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees selective opportunity, not broad-based strength.

On the calendar today

Economists expect consumer price inflation cooled in June; however, that has not deterred bond traders from increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its July 28-29 meeting. CPI lands at 8:30am ET. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10am ET, his first appearance before Congress. Earnings include Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures wavered as markets awaited the inflation report and monitored rising oil prices amid the renewed US-Iran war, with Dow futures slipping 0.3%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%. Oil futures jumped over 4%, topping $81/barrel, as US-Iran fighting stretched to a third day. AI chip stocks stayed under pressure, with newly listed SK Hynix shares dropping further.

What to watch 1. CPI surprise vs. cooling expectations, given hike odds are rising into July 28-29 FOMC. 2. Warsh's tone on rates during testimony — first public read on his policy stance. 3. Oil-driven volatility from Strait of Hormuz strikes; bank earnings guidance on rate/macro uncertainty.