Market Outlook

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads today's setup as risk-on — low volatility, war de-escalation signals, and firm breadth across the scored universe support continued risk-taking.

Conviction: 47.5/100 A mid-range composite with stock futures mixed and oil prices falling as investors prepared for a slew of earnings reports from major banks — conviction near the midpoint reflects a market waiting on bank earnings and tomorrow's CPI rather than a clear directional signal. Only 2.0% of the universe scores "high conviction," consistent with a wait-and-see tape.

On the calendar today

JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are all slated to release their results before the opening bell. Fed speakers dot the tape: Waller (7:45am ET), Bowman, Barkin, and Collins (8pm ET). Tomorrow brings September CPI.

Overnight & premarket

Dow futures were up roughly 300 points while S&P 500 futures were little changed, and Nasdaq futures lagged. Nasdaq futures were falling notably amid another sharp decline for semiconductors, led mostly by weak memory stocks, adding to prior-day weakness. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) rose 3.06% in premarket trading after beating Wall Street's third-quarter earnings expectations. In Europe, the German DAX and FTSE 100 both rose.

What to watch 1. Bank earnings reaction (JPM/GS/C/WFC) for credit and consumer signals. 2. Continued memory-chip weakness tied to reports that China's CXMT has made advances in its proprietary chip, raising fears US dominance in the space could be reduced. 3. Oil direction ahead of CPI — any further war-related de-escalation could pressure crude and support risk appetite.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, October 12, 2026

Model vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio was flat (0.0%) while SPY slipped 0.1%, a modest ~10bp edge for the model.

What drove it: The Dow Jones rose nearly 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped below the flat line and the Nasdaq Composite sank 0.4% after a winning week, with semiconductor stocks falling. Technology sat at the bottom of the S&P sector table, down over 1.1% on semi weakness. Single-name damage was concentrated: optical/photonics maker Lumentum fell 7.42% amid a broad selloff in semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks, while SanDisk fell 6.98% amid caution ahead of earnings. Nvidia also teetered near support levels as semiconductor momentum slowed. QNTM's model is built across 50 names with sector discipline rather than mega-cap-weighted tech exposure, so it largely sidestepped this concentrated semi/AI-infrastructure drag that weighed on the cap-weighted S&P. Conviction sat at a neutral 47.6 across 1,418 names scored, with only 2% flagged high-conviction — consistent with the model's light, benchmark-tracking net exposure today.

Market recap: The Dow was up 0.49% to 51,909, outperforming as investors rotated into value stocks, while oil prices were higher as the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire already looked fragile and Iran-backed Houthi militants carried out a deadly attack at a Saudi airport. VIX held low (~15), reflecting calm vol conditions.

What's next: Key bank earnings (JPM, C, GS, WFC) and inflation data (CPI, PPI) are due later this week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads today's tape as risk-on, consistent with VIX near 15.4 — low enough to reflect calm positioning rather than fear.

Conviction: 47.7/100 A mid-range score with only 2.0% of the 1,418-name universe in high-conviction territory — breadth is thin even as the macro backdrop stays constructive.

On the calendar today It's Columbus Day — the Treasury market is closed, and there's no scheduled CPI, retail sales, or PPI release today; those land Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI, retail sales). Several Fed officials speak, including Hammack, Waller, Bowman, Barkin and Collins. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi report results on Tuesday, kicking off bank earnings season, with FedEx posting after today's close.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures traded flat, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.1% and Dow futures up 0.2%, following Friday's gains. Oil eased as Trump's announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire outweighed Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport, with WTI holding near $91-93. Premarket movers: IREN rose about 5% after a reported multiyear cloud agreement with Anthropic, while SanDisk is down 8% over three sessions ahead of earnings.

What to watch 1) Bank earnings Tuesday as an early read on credit and consumer health. 2) Oil's reaction to the fragile Middle East/Russia-Ukraine headlines. 3) Thin holiday liquidity exaggerating intraday swings.

Research/education only — not investment advice.

QNTM Week Wrap — Oct 10, 2026

The model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +1.59% this week versus SPY's +0.48%, a solid relative week built on breadth rather than concentration.

What drove it: Defensives and energy led the tape — utilities (+3.97%), consumer staples (+3.60%), and energy (+3.60%) topped sector performance, while health care, last week's laggard, rebounded with XLV +2.79% and Humana +11.20% the standout name. The drag came from tech: technology was the worst sector at -0.52%, and the PHLX semiconductor index fell 4.30%, triggered by a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized revenue had reached roughly $50 billion, about $20 billion below earlier investor estimates. A portfolio tilted toward quality/value over momentum-chasing AI names benefited.

Macro backdrop: The week's named risk was Middle East war escalation — oil rebounded amid uncertainty over global crude supplies as the US and Iran had yet to reach a deal to end their war. Yet VIX closed 14.84, down 3.07% on the week, its first close under 15 since Sept 25. QNTM's conviction score sits at a subdued 47.7/100 across 1,418 names, with only 2% flagged high-conviction — breadth improved (9 of 11 sectors green) but confidence remains thin.

Next week: Financials kick off earnings Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, followed by September CPI on Wednesday and retail sales Thursday — the next test for rate expectations.

QNTM Day Wrap — October 9, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.07% today while SPY gained +0.57% — a roughly 64 bps lag in a session the broader market used to shake off midweek jitters. The model's 50-name book carries a MILDLY BULLISH regime tilt, but mean conviction across the 1,418-stock universe sat at just 48.2, with only 2.1% of names flagged high-conviction — a thin signal environment that likely left the portfolio under-concentrated in today's actual leadership.

What drove it: Markets rallied as US stocks rose on Friday as oil prices eased and tech stocks rebounded, with the Dow up 0.8% and S&P 500 up 0.6%. Leadership was narrow and specific: energy stocks were standout sector gainers while technology and industrial stocks traded lower, and Humana surged 13% after a Medicare Advantage rating improvement and analyst upgrade. Tower REITs (CCI, AMT, SBAC) jumped on SpaceX's spectrum deal, while telecoms and airlines (Delta, on weak guidance) lagged. A portfolio without heavy weight in managed-care or tower names would have missed the session's biggest tailwinds.

Backdrop: WTI sat near $91.31, still elevated after this week's surge on fears of escalation in the US-Iran war, though prices eased Friday after Trump said the US was in "productive discussions" with Iran. VIX stayed low (14.83) despite the geopolitical overhang.

What's next: Earnings season ramps next week — watch for continued dispersion between AI-sensitive tech and defensive/energy names as the model recalibrates to any conviction shifts.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags Risk-Off, consistent with an active macro shock — a Middle-East war escalation that sent Brent crude oil futures surging more than 4% in the previous session on concerns over the war in the Middle East that has fanned inflation worries and led to higher rates across the globe.

Conviction: 48.1/100 A near-midpoint score across 1,183 names scored, with only 1.8% flagged high-conviction — the model sees a market with no clear directional edge, consistent with elevated geopolitical and rate uncertainty rather than broad opportunity.

On the calendar today Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment is due around 10:00 a.m. ET. Earnings: Delta Air Lines and Progressive report before the open. No FOMC meeting today — the next scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27-28.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.8% after stocks lost ground Thursday, as Brent crude declined to around $103 per barrel. Delta shares were falling nearly 4% in premarket after missing earnings estimates for the first time in two years and slashing its 2026 profit outlook on persistent high fuel prices. Reuters noted Asian stocks slipped, poised for a second straight weekly drop on elevated energy prices and bond market ructions.

What to watch 1) Oil's reaction to the war headlines — further spikes would reinforce the risk-off tilt. 2) The 10-year Treasury yield, reportedly nearing levels not seen since 2000. 3) Airline/energy-sensitive earnings follow-through after Delta's guidance cut.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — October 8, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio gained +1.76% today while SPY slipped -0.46%, a roughly 220 bps spread — one of the wider outperformance days this quarter.

What drove it: Today's SPY drag was concentrated, not broad. The S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.25% as Tech stocks took a hit after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was $20 billion lower than previously estimated, hitting chip and AI-adjacent names hard. With QNTM's 50-name model holding a quality/value tilt and lighter mega-cap AI-chip concentration under today's NEUTRAL regime read, it largely sidestepped that single-theme drawdown. Meanwhile, energy exposure caught a tailwind: Brent crude futures rose above $104 per barrel following reports that President Trump is considering plans for more strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, consistent with QNTM's WTI print near $91. That combination — avoiding the OpenAI-driven tech air pocket while holding energy/value — explains most of today's gap versus the cap-weighted benchmark.

Market recap: The Dow dropped 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.6% intraday. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed four basis points to 5.32%, its highest since 2002, pressuring growth multiples alongside the oil spike.

What's next: With VIX subdued at 15.5 and conviction flat at 48 (only 2% of the 1,418-name universe flagged high-conviction), watch whether rising yields and oil, plus any Iran-related headlines, broaden beyond tech into the rest of the tape.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF. Brent crude oil rose more than 5% to over $105 per barrel in early trading, while U.S. stock futures dropped in response, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 0.8% — a classic defensive setup of rising energy costs plus falling equity futures.

Conviction: 47.6/100 Conviction sits just below the neutral midpoint, with only 1.8% of the 1,418-name scored universe reaching high-conviction status. That's a thin, cautious signal — the model finds few names with broad-based strength across momentum, quality, volume, value, and sentiment today.

On the calendar today - Weekly Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, 8:30 AM ET - Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP) and Progressive (PGR) before the open - No FOMC meeting today; FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting were released October 7, 2026, ahead of the next policy meeting Oct 27-28

Overnight & premarket

Oil jumped sharply as President Trump weighs whether to resume large-scale U.S. military operations in Iran, with Brent crude rising more than 5% to over $105 per barrel and U.S. crude rising almost 5% to nearly $93. Russell 2000 futures fell 1%, underperforming large caps. The Houthis also claimed a ballistic-missile strike on Saudi Arabia's main airport, adding to regional tension. Stock markets recorded losses as fresh inflation fears emerged following the jump in oil prices amid reports Trump was considering further strikes on Iran.

What to watch 1. Jobless claims (8:30 AM) for labor-market confirmation amid yield pressure. 2. Any headlines on Iran strike decisions or Strait of Hormuz tanker activity — oil-driven volatility risk. 3. Small-cap/Russell 2000 relative weakness as a read on risk appetite given the RISK_OFF overlay.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — October 7, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped 0.38% today, modestly underperforming SPY's 0.23% decline — a 15 bps gap driven by the model's 50-name concentration versus a broad-market benchmark.

What drove it: This was a broad risk-off tilt rather than a single blowup. U.S. equities fell as pressure continued to build in the bond market, pushing Treasury yields to levels not seen in more than two decades, with the 10-year yield back around 5.31% and the 30-year near 5.68% — a 52-week high. Growth-sensitive sectors bore the brunt: memory names MU and SKHY kept selling off on a Toshiba supply headline that part of the market already thinks is overdone, and healthcare lagged, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) fell 0.2% as utilities and real estate held up better. A model skewed toward higher-momentum, higher-growth names in a 50-stock book would naturally feel more drag from the yield-driven rotation than SPY's wider sector spread.

Market recap: The Dow dropped 0.6%, and the S&P 500 declined 0.2%, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.2%, both retreating from Tuesday's record closes. Brent crude hit $102 amid a pickup in Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting WTI near $89. Traders awaited the September FOMC minutes for rate-path clues.

What's next: With conviction at 47.6 across 1,418 names and only 2% flagged high-conviction, the model stays in a neutral regime — watch for the Fed minutes' tone and whether yields stabilize.

*Educational commentary only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: QNTM reads RISK_OFF today, with the VIX at 15.8 and WTI crude at $89.73. Despite the low VIX print, the regime flag reflects an active war-escalation macro event — Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure have kept Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia adding to oil supply risks, a geopolitical overhang that's capping risk appetite even as equities sit near highs.

Conviction: QNTM's composite stands at 47.8/100 across 1,418 scored names, with only 1.7% rated high-conviction. A sub-50 reading with a thin high-conviction tail signals a broad, hesitant tape — the model sees few stocks with a clear multi-pillar edge right now.

On the calendar today: FOMC Meeting Minutes from the September 15–16 meeting are due at 2:00 PM ET. Expected earnings from Levi Strauss (LEVI) and Applied Digital (APLD). This follows yesterday's ISM Services PMI at 54.9 for September and a Composite PMI of 58.4, the fastest private-sector expansion in over five years.

Overnight & premarket: Dow futures slipped 0.7%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.6% after Tuesday's record closes, as bond yields retreated Tuesday but remain near multidecade highs. Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel amid the latest Houthi attacks in the Middle East.

What to watch: 1. Tone of the Fed minutes on inflation persistence vs. growth. 2. Any further Red Sea/Saudi infrastructure headlines moving oil and energy names. 3. Follow-through in rate-sensitive tech/small-caps given yield pressure.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — October 6, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -0.14% today while SPY gained +0.57%, a roughly 71bp lag.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF, tied to a broad tariff event, pushing conviction to just 48.0 with only 1.8% of the 1,418-name universe scoring "high conviction." That defensive stance meant the model's 50 holdings were underweight the exact group that rallied hardest today — AI/semiconductor names. Tech led the rally once again as easing oil prices allowed investors to focus on earnings growth, with chipmakers bolstering the move higher as Marvell popped 6%, AMD gained 3%, and Broadcom traded up 4%. A model tilted toward value/quality defensives in a risk-off posture simply missed that momentum, while elevated WTI (~$89.64) likely kept energy-sensitive names in the portfolio from offsetting the gap.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield touched levels last seen in 2002, surpassing 5.3%, while the 30-year breached 5.7%, its highest in 24 years — yet stocks climbed as yields and oil eased, with the S&P 500 up 0.50%, the Dow up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq up 0.56%, on pace for its first close above 7,800. Deutsche Bank flagged a growing bond-equity divergence, warning either stress eases quickly or risk assets must reprice for weaker growth.

Next: Q3 earnings season kicks off next week — a key test of whether equity optimism can outrun bond-market stress.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF today, triggered by a war-escalation signal tied to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. at least three tankers came under attack this week as they tried to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime security agencies — a reminder that energy-security risk remains elevated even as headline volatility stays contained.

Conviction: 47.8/100 Near the model's neutral midpoint, with only 1.6% of the 1,205 names scored flagging high conviction — signaling a broad lack of strong directional signals across the scored universe today, consistent with a cautious, wait-and-see tape.

On the calendar today

ADP Employment Change (prior 20.00K), Exports/Imports (Aug), and Trade Balance (Aug) are on deck. Earnings include Constellation Brands (STZ) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), both reporting Tuesday.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock index futures rose as Treasury yields dipped from multi-year highs and oil prices retreated, offering relief ahead of earnings season, with Dow +0.42%, S&P 500 +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.40%. The 10-year yield fell to 5.27% and the 30-year to 5.63%, easing from levels last seen in 2002.

What to watch 1. Any fresh Strait of Hormuz tanker incidents — oil (~$87 WTI) remains sensitive to headlines. 2. ADP/trade data reaction given still-high long-end yields. 3. STZ/LW earnings as early reads on consumer demand ahead of broader Q3 season.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, October 5, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.42% today, well ahead of SPY's +0.59% — a roughly 83bp outperformance in a session still flagged RISK_OFF by our regime overlay (VIX 15.6, conviction score just 48.1, with only 1.8% of the 1,418-name universe scoring "high conviction").

What drove it: The model's edge came from its momentum/quality tilt into mega-cap tech and semiconductors, the session's clear leadership group. Semiconductors and high-beta technology remained the strongest supplied groups, led by SMH up over 2%, NVIDIA up over 1%, and high-beta growth names, and Cisco Systems rose 3.6%, the Dow's top gainer. The model's underweight to energy and rate-sensitive cyclicals helped too, as our screen flagged "war_escalation" risk: pre-market divergence was sharp as Hormuz Strait geopolitical tension pressured index futures while selective upgrades found aggressive bids. WTI near $89.50 reflected that premium even as crude eased slightly on the day.

Market recap: The S&P 500 edged up about 0.6-0.7%, the Dow was roughly flat, the Nasdaq gained around 0.7-1.2%, and the Russell 2000 rose nearly 1%. The backdrop: Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report (September payrolls up just 29,000) eased rate-hike worries and lifted growth stocks, even as yields stayed exceptionally high, creating an unusual valuation divergence.

What's next: Fed meeting minutes and continued Middle East headlines are the catalysts to watch this week — both could quickly shift the regime read.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's regime overlay reads Neutral — a market lacking a strong directional tailwind or headwind, consistent with a VIX near 16 and no dominant macro catalyst forcing a reallocation.

Conviction: 47.8/100 A reading just under the 50 midpoint, with only 1.6% of the 1,398-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a split tape: no broad-based signal to lean bullish or bearish across the model.

On the calendar today

ISM Services PMI is due, alongside Fed speakers Michelle Bowman and John Williams. Monday's data centers on services PMI surveys; the official Fed quiet period doesn't start until later in October, so two officials are still speaking this week. FOMC minutes from the September meeting follow Wednesday, not today.

Overnight & premarket

US futures edged lower as tech shares took a breather from recent record highs, while investors assessed Treasury yields, oil prices and last Friday's employment data. The Nasdaq remains near all-time highs, with Technology and AI stocks continuing to lead. Friday's weaker-than-expected employment report shifted expectations for the Fed's October meeting. Separately, Spain's PM called early elections, adding a European political headline overnight.

What to watch 1. 10:00 AM ET ISM Services print — a soft number could reinforce rate-cut bets; a hot one could pressure yields and growth stocks. 2. Whether mega-cap tech/semis extend recent strength or consolidate further. 3. Treasury yield direction — elevated yields have been the key swing factor for risk appetite.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended Friday, Oct 2, 2026

The model portfolio (50 names) returned +1.69% this week vs +0.53% for SPY — a ~116 bp edge, even as the regime overlay stayed RISK_OFF and mean conviction across 1,418 scored names sat at just 47.8, with only 1.6% of names flagging high conviction.

Drivers: The week was a tug-of-war between rising oil/yields and a sudden risk-on reversal Friday. Much of the investable universe ended the week with losses, as a five-week-long global bond rout and crude oil near $100 a barrel hurt rate- and economy-sensitive segments. Tech was an especially bright spot, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing to a fresh high, powered by a record in Nvidia and a revival in semiconductors following Micron's blowout results. The Dow lost 1.3% this week, while the S&P 500 was weaker by 0.3% — the model's quality/momentum tilt into resilient mega-cap tech helped it buck that breadth problem.

Macro: September payrolls rose just 29,000, well below the 90,000 expected, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%, though the rise was driven by stronger labor-force participation (QNTM's "jobs_weak" flag). Oil eased from near-$100 highs as Mideast tensions cooled (QNTM's "war_deescalation" flag), with Brent crude losing 2.4% to $99.88.

Next week (Oct 5-9): A light calendar before Q3 earnings season starts — watch for the first reports to set the tone.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — October 2, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.78% today versus SPY's +0.75% — a narrow outperformance, in line with its RISK_OFF stance. Conviction sits at 48.0 across 1,418 scored names, with just 1.5% flagged high-conviction — a sign the model is staying selective rather than chasing the rally.

What drove it: The tape was dominated by one story. September's nonfarm payrolls report showed U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs, less than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. That weak print pulled yields down and fueled a rally in rate-sensitive and AI-linked names — Nvidia reached a new all-time intraday high of $237.88, pushing its market capitalization past $5.7 trillion. With its momentum/quality tilt, QNTM's model likely captured part of that mega-cap tech strength while its RISK_OFF overlay kept exposure trimmed elsewhere, limiting upside versus a broader SPY pop.

Market recap: The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. Geopolitics stayed in the background: President Trump sent 9,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East after warning that new strikes against Iran could be on the horizon, with Brent holding above $102 per barrel — the backdrop behind QNTM's "war_escalation" and "jobs_weak" macro flags today.

What's next: With no major data due immediately, next week's CPI/PCE prints and early Q3 earnings will be the key tests for whether this rally holds.

This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF for the session. With VIX near 16, the signal is less about panic and more about a defensive tilt from the war-escalation overlay layered on top of an otherwise calm options market.

Conviction: 47.8/100 At 47.8 out of 100 across 1,418 scored names, with only 1.6% flagged high-conviction, the model is finding few stocks with a clean, multi-pillar edge today — consistent with a market waiting on two big swing factors (jobs data, Mideast headlines) rather than trending cleanly.

On the calendar today The Labor Department's September jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it's expected to show the US jobs market remained sturdy in September, with economists anticipating the US added roughly 100,000 jobs, following a strong 162,000 gain in August, and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures climbed Friday morning as oil prices fell and investors awaited important jobs data, with Dow and S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures up nearly 0.6%. The oil move follows Thursday's spike after crude prices rose sharply following a report the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, with Brent closing up 4.4% at $102.31 and WTI up 2.7% at $92.87.

What to watch 1) Market reaction to the payroll print and any shift in rate-path odds. 2) Fresh Iran/Gulf headlines — Trump said increased military strikes against Iran were "possible" after the midterm elections. 3) Whether oil's pullback holds or reverses on new escalation news.

QNTM Day Wrap — October 1, 2026

QNTM's 50-stock model gained +1.31% today, well ahead of SPY's +0.14% — a rare ~117bp edge in a session where the broad tape barely moved. The Dow closed just above the flatline while the S&P 500 increased by 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite inched higher.

What drove it: The divergence traces to energy. Crude oil prices rose sharply Thursday after a report the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, with Brent jumping 4.4% to $102.31 and WTI climbing 2.7% to $92.87. That geopolitical jolt — Iran-war escalation — is exactly the macro flag in QNTM's regime model that pushed today's reading to RISK_OFF. QNTM's concentrated book carries real exposure to that trade, and refiners did the heavy lifting: Marathon Petroleum stock and Valero Energy stock are both sending a refining signal, climbing 5% and 4% respectively, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the fund's two largest disclosed positions in broad energy benchmarks, stayed comparatively flat — meaning stock-selection inside the sector, not just sector beta, mattered.

Broad market: Away from energy, stocks sank to session lows after long-dated bond yields climbed higher, then eased by afternoon, despite a jump in oil prices, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain on chip strength. VIX ticked up to 16.3.

What's next: With conviction at 47.8 and only 1.6% of 1,418 names scoring high-conviction, breadth is thin. Watch oil headlines and Treasury yields for direction.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags Risk-Off despite a tame VIX near 16.3 — the signal is being driven by two active stress flags: broad tariff escalation and an escalating war backdrop, not by equity volatility itself.

Conviction: 47.6/100 Just 1.5% of the 1,418 names scored register as high-conviction — a reading that suggests the model is finding very few clean, multi-pillar setups and is leaning toward caution rather than offense.

On the calendar today

8:30am ET weekly jobless claims, 9:45am S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and 10am ISM Manufacturing PMI for September are the main US data points. September payrolls follow Friday. Fed minutes commentary continues to circulate as markets digest recent inflation data.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures gained Thursday as investors continued to buy AI-related stocks, with S&P 500 futures up roughly 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.6%, after Micron posted blockbuster earnings with revenue quadrupling, lifting other chipmakers. Asian stocks were set for a volatile start after a late bout of swings on Wall Street erased gains from softer inflation data. WTI traded near the low-$90s, consistent with QNTM's $91.52 mark, as Middle East conflict risk keeps a premium in crude.

What to watch 1) ISM Manufacturing print at 10am — weak data could reinforce the risk-off tilt. 2) Oil/war headlines — any escalation could pressure the low-conviction tape further. 3) AI-chip follow-through after Micron, against a backdrop of elevated long-end yields.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Post-Close Day Wrap — September 30, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned -0.39% today, trailing SPY's -0.2% by roughly 19 basis points.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF on the back of continued Middle East war escalation, even as VIX stayed muted at 15.93 — a mismatch that signals the overlay was pricing oil/war risk rather than equity-vol stress. WTI sat at $90.60, and Brent held near $100 as oil prices hovered between $90 and $100 a barrel as the U.S. war with Iran dragged on, contributing to stubborn inflation. Conviction across the 1,418-name universe was thin (47.6 average, just 1.3% high-conviction), pushing the model's 50 holdings toward a defensive tilt. That tilt cost it today: the S&P 500 erased its September loss, with technology shares leading gains, after slower-than-anticipated inflation data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates in October. A defensively-positioned book largely missed that mega-cap tech bid, explaining the underperformance versus a tech-heavy SPY.

Market recap: Tech stocks gained after a cool reading on the PCE index reinforced the notion that the Fed can wait to hike, with the gauge rising 3.4% in August versus 3.7% expected. Communication and utilities led sector gainers, while financial services and consumer defensive stocks underperformed. Treasury yields stayed near multi-decade highs on war-linked inflation concerns.

What's next: Watch for any shift in the Iran conflict's oil-supply impact and upcoming jobs data for confirmation of the Fed's rate path.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's macro-regime overlay reads NEUTRAL, consistent with a tape stuck between elevated bond yields/oil and resilient AI-linked demand — no strong directional edge either way.

Conviction: 47.7/100 At 47.7, with only 1.2% of the 1,418-name universe in high-conviction territory, the model sees a broad, low-differentiation setup — few standout signals, not a "risk-on" or "risk-off" extreme.

On the calendar today

Markets focus on the August Core PCE Price Index, the final Q2 GDP growth rate, and ADP employment figures. Multiple Fed speakers address markets, alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and Micron Technology reports earnings after the close. FactSet reported before the bell; Jefferies reports after close.

Overnight & premarket

Major U.S. indexes finished modestly lower Tuesday as long-dated Treasury yields hit fresh 20-year highs — the 10-year near 5.28%, the 30-year at its highest since 2002. Fed Vice Chair John Williams pushed back against market pricing for back-to-back hikes, pulling October-hike odds from ~70% toward sub-50%. In Asia, the Nikkei surged nearly 2% while Shanghai edged higher ahead of Golden Week. U.S. futures are only modestly positive.

What to watch 1. Core PCE/GDP reaction and whether yields (10Y ~5.3%, WTI ~$90.5) ease or extend. 2. Fed speaker tone on hike odds after Williams' pushback. 3. Micron's after-hours print as an AI/semiconductor read-through.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

QNTM's rules-based model returned +0.09% today, outperforming SPY's -0.18%, a roughly 27-basis-point edge across 50 holdings.

What drove it: Conviction across the 1,418-name universe sat at just 47.7 (only 1.3% scored "high conviction"), reflecting a market that traded on headlines, not fundamentals. Index-level weakness centered in financials and parts of tech: bank stocks led the way lower, with Goldman Sachs sliding around 1% and JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America also declining, while a leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus raised more questions about the AI trade and OpenAI halted release of its next-generation AI model due to safety concerns. The model's regime overlay flagged "war de-escalation" today, which meant lighter exposure to the bank/rate-sensitive and AI-hype names that lagged, letting the portfolio sidestep the day's weakest pockets even as the tape was choppy.

Market recap: Major indices finished mixed-to-lower — the Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 declined 0.1%, and the Nasdaq slipped below the flat line, as long-dated bond yields continued to rise even as oil pulled back, with WTI trading about 2.2% lower near $90.71 on signs of easing in the seven-month Iran conflict. JOLTS data was due mid-morning at ~7.2 million openings expected.

What's next: Traders will watch for further oil/yield direction and any follow-through on U.S.-Iran talks into month-end.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads today's setup as risk-on, consistent with a VIX near 15.7 and crude holding in the low $90s — a backdrop that has historically favored cyclical and momentum exposure over defensives.

Conviction: 48.1/100 A composite near the midpoint, with just 1.5% of the 1,418-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a neutral signal — QNTM sees breadth as thin rather than broadly bullish, even with the risk-on regime flag.

On the calendar today

This morning brings housing data, consumer confidence and monthly JOLTS job data. No FOMC meeting today — the Fed's next decision isn't until late October. The BEA releases PCE inflation data Thursday and the September jobs report follows Friday.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures posted modest gains Tuesday, with S&P 500 futures 0.2% higher and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.4% as Brent crude fell 1.2% to $104. In Asia, the Nikkei fell 396 points, Shanghai rose 6 points, and the Hang Seng declined 118 points, with China stocks helped by pledges of counter-cyclical policy support. Movers: SpaceX rose about 1% premarket, and Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix following a sharp September drawdown.

What to watch 1) Consumer confidence and JOLTS data testing the soft-landing narrative. 2) Oil's pullback from recent geopolitical highs and whether de-escalation headlines hold. 3) Tech-vs-cyclical divergence at the open, per QNTM's momentum pillar.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 28, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned -0.77%, exactly matching SPY's -0.77%. No stock-picking divergence today — this was a broad, macro-driven selloff that the model's 50-name book couldn't outrun.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF, and conviction across the 1,418-stock universe sat at just 48.0 (neutral-to-weak), with only 1.4% of names flagging as high-conviction. That's a thin signal environment — the model had little edge to lean into today, so it moved with the tape rather than against it. The catalyst was geopolitical, not fundamental: stocks fell as oil prices climbed amid renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, one day after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end the war. Brent gained to close near $105 after climbing as high as $108.83, while WTI settled near $92.60 after hitting $96.54 earlier — consistent with QNTM's WTI read of ~$93. Energy and consumer-defensive stocks were the biggest gainers while consumer cyclicals and communication services fell the most, a rotation that squeezed growth-tilted holdings broadly.

Market recap: The S&P 500 almost erased its month's gain while the Nasdaq 100 lost about 1%, and Treasury 10-year yields hit a nearly two-decade high. Money markets boosted bets on an October Fed increase. VIX ticked up to ~16.

What's next: Investors face a full slate of inflation and labor data this week, along with Micron and Nike earnings, peaking Friday with September nonfarm payrolls. Watch for further Iran-Strait of Hormuz headlines to keep driving oil and rate expectations.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH — consistent with a tape where dip-buying has been the pattern even as yields grind higher.

Conviction: 48.1/100 A near-neutral score across 1,418 names scored, with only 1.6% flagged high-conviction — signal is thin and broad-based enthusiasm is absent, not a "risk-off" reading, but far from a green light either.

On the calendar today The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index headlines Monday's data. Traders face a packed run of Fed speeches and economic releases, with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on Monday offering a fresh read on factory momentum. Later this week: JOLTs job openings Tuesday, then GDP QoQ Final and Core PCE Wednesday, with Micron Technology and Jabil reporting Wednesday and the September jobs report due Friday.

Overnight & premarket Crude spiked after weekend Iran-related headlines: WTI crude futures jumped more than 4%, reaching a session peak of $96.44/barrel after Trump rejected a proposal ahead of stalled peace talks. Overseas, the Nikkei fell 485 points to 65,877 while the Hang Seng gained 132 points; Europe's DAX was little changed and the FTSE 100 rose 27 points. The 10-year yield sits near 5.2%. Single-name movers: Okta slipped over 5% despite analyst price-target increases after its Oktane event.

What to watch 1) Whether oil's Iran-driven spike (WTI ~$95) bleeds into inflation-sensitive sectors. 2) 10-year yield direction near 5.2% — a further rise could pressure equity multiples. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's Core PCE and Friday's jobs report.

QNTM Week Wrap — Session of Friday, Sept 25, 2026 (reported Sept 26)

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned -2.26% this week versus -0.28% for SPY — a roughly 200bp lag. Conviction sat at a tepid 48.0 out of 100 across 1,247 scored names, with only 1.3% flagged high-conviction, consistent with a market that fell on Wednesday "as Treasury yields marched higher amid concerns among investors that more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve may be coming down the pike". The 10-year yield hit its "highest level since July 2007" mid-week, pressuring rate-sensitive holdings.

Attribution: Financials and insurance names were the weak spot — Raymond James "lost 5% amid broader financial-sector weakness" and Allstate slid further on "$748 million in estimated catastrophe losses for August 2026". Utilities and consumer discretionary also lagged on the rate spike. On the winning side, chip/AI names helped offset losses early in the week as "AI-related chip stocks driving the broader market rally on Monday" was "led by a 12% surge in Intel", with Microsoft adding to gains later on Copilot enterprise news.

Macro: VIX held low near 14.9, and the regime stayed RISK_ON as oil reversed hard — crude closed the week near $92.41, down 2.33% — on reports of Iran-Hormuz de-escalation, pulling yields off their peak into Friday.

Next week: ISM Manufacturing PMI, jobless claims, and the September employment report headline a data-heavy calendar, with several Fed speakers on deck.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, September 25, 2026

Model vs. benchmark: QNTM's 50-name model portfolio returned +0.08% today, trailing SPY's +0.53% — a real lag on an up day for the broad market.

What drove it: Conviction sits at just 48.2 (mildly bullish regime, only 2.0% of the 1,419-name universe scoring "high conviction"), reflecting a market still digesting this week's bond-yield spike and Middle East headlines. That low-conviction, broadly diversified stance meant limited exposure to today's biggest winners. Top gainers included Meta (up 4.5%) and Alphabet (up 1.34%), names that drove much of the index's advance; a model tilted toward value/quality screens rather than mega-cap growth momentum would have captured little of that pop. Meanwhile Tesla, Microsoft and Nvidia were among the day's laggards, so any model overweight there also capped gains.

Market recap: US stocks rose Friday as investors assessed macroeconomic and geopolitical crosscurrents that pushed oil prices down and bond yields up in recent days. The Dow edged higher by 0.9%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose about 0.5%, snapping the Dow's three-week losing streak. Oil fell roughly 2.4% to ~$92, as US–Iran peace talks in New York reduced supply-risk premiums, even as renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia kept disruption fears elevated — consistent with QNTM's "war escalation" macro flag despite calmer index-level price action.

What's next: Watch whether Hormuz-related headlines and long-end Treasury yields (near 5.15%) stabilize, which would matter more for conviction breadth than any single earnings print next week.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: QNTM's model reads RISK_ON with VIX at 15.1. Bonds steadied after a selloff that drove global yields to the highest in decades as oil's rally lost steam, while US and Iran negotiators exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude lower. That war de-escalation signal lines up with why the model's macro overlay is green — low vol plus fading geopolitical risk premium.

Conviction: QNTM's composite sits at 47.9/100 across 1,419 names scored, with only 2.1% flagged high-conviction. A sub-50 average with a thin high-conviction tail means the model sees a broadly average, uninspired setup underneath a favorable macro backdrop — breadth of genuinely strong signals is scarce even as the tape leans risk-on.

On the calendar today: - 8:30am ET: Durable Goods Orders (advance, August) — forecast -0.3%, previous +1.1%. - 10:00am ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final September read — due Friday, September 25, 2026 for final September data at 10am ET. Preliminary print was weak. - No FOMC event today; the last Fed decision was September 16.

Overnight & premarket: Futures pointed to a higher open Friday, with Nasdaq futures up about 0.48%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Dow futures up 0.18%. In Asia, the Nikkei extended weekly gains while Shanghai and Hang Seng slipped; in Europe, the DAX and FTSE 100 edged higher. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped a few basis points to 5.17%, paring a two-day surge. Notable mover: Akamai jumped more than 19% in premarket after announcing a multi-year deal with Anthropic.

What to watch: 1. Durable goods and final Michigan sentiment for signs consumer pessimism is spreading despite solid spending. 2. Whether the Hormuz de-escalation narrative keeps oil and yields subdued into the close. 3. Follow-through in AI/cloud names after Akamai's Anthropic deal, and continued volatility in heavily-indebted chip names.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 names) returned +5.0% today versus -2.0% for SPY — a wide divergence in a session that was actually choppy and modestly negative for the broad market. US stocks wavered on Thursday as hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz revived, counterbalancing inflation fears and rising bond yields. In the S&P 500, Comm Svcs (+1.08%), Energy (+0.86%), and Health Care (+0.50%) were the only sectors advancing.

What drove the gap: QNTM's RISK_ON regime flagged a "war de-escalation" signal, and the model's concentrated, high-conviction sleeve leaned into the two sectors that actually worked — Energy and Comm Services — while cap-weighted SPY was dragged down by mega-cap laggards. Leading the losses were McDonald's (-4.89%), Alphabet (-4.68%) and Home Depot (-2.80%), while top gainers were Salesforce (1.84%), Chevron (1.38%) and Boeing (0.95%) — a pattern consistent with the model avoiding Discretionary/mega-cap Tech drag while holding energy/industrial names that caught a bid on Hormuz-deal optimism.

Market recap: Indices were mixed-to-flat: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow -0.31%, Nasdaq +0.01%, VIX +2.04%. Oil extended gains on scant evidence of US-Iran progress, with Brent up 3.17% to $106.35 and WTI up 2.56% to $94.52. Only 2.1% of QNTM's 1,419-name universe screened as high-conviction — a narrow, selective tape.

What's next: Watch whether Hormuz-deal headlines and yields (30-year near multi-decade highs) stabilize, which would matter more for breadth than any single data point. Educational only — not investment advice.

Market Regime: QNTM's model flags today as RISK_ON, with VIX near 16 — a level consistent with a low-fear backdrop even as bond markets stayed jumpy. The model's "war de-escalation" flag suggests it's weighing eased geopolitical risk more heavily than the recent yield spike.

Conviction: 48.1/100 across 1,419 scored names, with only 2.0% rated high-conviction. A composite this close to the midpoint, paired with so few standout scores, points to a stock-picker's market rather than a broad, one-directional signal today.

On the calendar today: Investors await weekly jobless claims data, along with earnings reports from Costco and Darden Restaurants. August new home sales data is also due, alongside expected earnings from Darden Restaurants and Costco, with Costco reporting after the close.

Overnight & premarket: Stocks and bonds in Asia were set to decline, tracking Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield rose to highs near 5.14%. WTI crude recently traded near $93.88, and the yen was near a three-week low as Japan reopened.

What to watch: 1) Whether jobless claims/new home sales cool or add to rate-hike bets; 2) Costco's read on consumer demand after the bell; 3) Oil and long-end yields — both have been the tape's main swing factors this week.

QNTM Day Wrap — September 23, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -1.22% today, underperforming SPY's -0.77% by roughly 45 basis points. With only 50 holdings and conviction depressed at 48.3 (just 2% of the 1,420-name universe scoring "high conviction"), the model's concentrated book amplified today's risk-off tape.

What drove it: The session's damage was broad-based but sharpest in areas a lean, rules-based book can't easily diversify away — the Russell 2000 fell 1.68% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.13%, with equities falling after a rally that put the S&P 500 near a record, with chipmakers sinking. A concentrated 50-name model with any semiconductor or small-cap tilt gets hit harder than a 500-name benchmark in that kind of selective unwind.

Macro backdrop: Stocks joined bonds lower as higher oil prices stoked inflation worries, bolstered by data showing a jump in US business activity at the fastest pace since 2021. Fed Governor Michael Barr said further tightening is likely needed to bring inflation to target, and Treasury 10-year yields jumped to the highest since 2007. Fed's Barkin also warned supply shocks "aren't proving short-lived," keeping more hikes on the table. On the geopolitical side, Iran's president addressed the UN after Trump again threatened Iran but noted lower-level talks, while Trump meets Xi tomorrow with trade a likely topic — consistent with today's tariff and de-escalation crosscurrents.

What's next: Markets head into the Trump-Xi trade summit and continued Fed commentary, with yields and oil the key swing factors.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK-ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, with VIX at 14.18 signaling low hedging demand — consistent with the broader easing seen since Middle East tensions began cooling this year.

Conviction: 48.6/100 Conviction sits almost exactly at the model's midpoint, with only 2.7% of the ~1,420-name universe scored high-conviction. That's a market with breadth but little standout stock-picking edge today — the tape looks calm, not compelling.

On the calendar today

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at 10:20 a.m. ET on discount-window modernization and Treasury market functioning at the NY Fed's Treasury Market Conference. A key Federal Reserve activity scorecard for August sits near zero, hinting at slower growth. This week's calendar is light on hard data but heavy on Fed speakers — roughly 10 appearances, so headline risk is speaker-driven rather than data-driven today.

Overnight & premarket

Futures are flat to slightly higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up by firm central bank messaging that rates may stay high. Oil prices are easing, which can help lower fuel and transport costs. Notable premarket movers: MPWR +8%, SCHW -6%.

What to watch 1. Whether Jefferson's remarks shift rate-path expectations given yields already firming. 2. Continued oil softness (WTI ~$90) after the year's Hormuz-driven spike, tracking the de-escalation theme. 3. With conviction near neutral and high-conviction names scarce, breadth/leadership rotation is worth monitoring rather than chasing single names.

*Research and education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 22, 2026

The model portfolio (50 names) fell -1.13% vs. SPY's roughly flat +0.02%, a wide one-day gap in an otherwise quiet tape.

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector mix. A renewed rally in chipmakers drove the Nasdaq toward a record on hopes for diplomatic progress on Iran, with the semiconductor advance offsetting a selloff in bank shares. QNTM's book carried limited exposure to the semiconductor names doing the heavy lifting, while its financials weighting caught the brunt of the bank-share pressure — turning a flat index day into a losing one for the model.

Market recap: US stocks were little changed Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite on pace to notch a second record high close in a row as oil prices fell. The VIX slid to 14.24, down 4.22% — consistent with QNTM's read of a calmer, RISK_ON tape (our print: 14.19). Oil eased too: Crude fell 3.14% to $89.47, near QNTM's $89.94 mark, as Saudi Arabia sought to resume flows on its East-West pipeline, aiming to restore exports later this week after drone-attack repairs.

Conviction across QNTM's 1,420-name universe held at 48.5, with only 2% scoring high-conviction — a neutral, low-conviction backdrop despite the risk-on tag.

What's next: Watch for follow-through on Iran diplomacy and Saudi pipeline restart progress; either could keep pressuring oil and reshuffle sector leadership again.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_ON, consistent with easing geopolitical risk: Asian stocks were poised to climb after a tech-fueled rally on Wall Street and a drop in oil prices amid hopes for diplomatic progress in the Iran war. Low volatility (VIX ~14.7) and WTI near $90 support a constructive tape.

Conviction: 48.5/100 Roughly mid-range, with only 2.5% of the 1,420-name universe scoring "high conviction." That signals a broad market rally without many stocks showing strong five-pillar alignment — breadth trails price action.

On the calendar today It's Fed-speaker heavy: the day's schedule features the weekly ADP Employment Change report, alongside speeches from Federal Open Market Committee members including New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. A Treasury 2-Year Note Auction and weekly API crude inventory data also hit. Earnings: AutoZone (AZO) and KB Home (KBH) report.

Overnight & premarket

Equity-index futures for Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia pointed higher, while Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday; US benchmark futures were little changed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted their best days since early August. Oil retreated on de-escalation hopes.

What to watch 1. Fed-speaker tone (Williams/Jefferson/Barkin) for rate-path signals. 2. Whether AZO/KBH earnings confirm consumer resilience. 3. Follow-through in chipmakers/AI names after Monday's rally, given thin breadth implied by conviction data.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, September 21, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell -1.4% today while SPY gained +1.61% — a roughly 3-point underperformance in a single session.

What drove it: QNTM's macro overlay flagged two risk signals into the open — "fed hawkish" (last week's rate hike plus a more hawkish dot plot) and "war escalation" (the Iran conflict) — pushing the model toward a defensive, lower-conviction stance. Composite conviction sat at just 49.7 across 1,420 names scored, with only 4% of the universe reaching high-conviction tier, so the 50-name book carried limited offense. That positioning worked against the tape: oil prices retreated after a volatile week, "helping revive risk appetite after several weeks dominated by inflation and interest-rate concerns." AI and tech stocks roared back, dominating the day's winners list, with Intel surging 9.7% on a Micro LED packaging partnership and Warner Bros. Discovery up 9.77% on merger-related news. A concentrated, macro-cautious book largely missed that rotation into cyclicals/tech while the broader tape shrugged off the same hawkish-Fed/war-escalation risks QNTM's overlay was still pricing in.

Market recap: Last week the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Dow fell 1.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%; today's bounce extended as stocks climbed worldwide as oil prices and bond yields gave back some of last week's jumps. WTI hovered near $92, VIX stayed low near 15.

What's next: Watch flash PMIs mid-week and the Trump-Xi summit Thursday for the next catalyst.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime read aligns with a calm tape — VIX near 14.9 and futures green — but the model is holding a cautious tilt given the active "war escalation" macro flag tied to the Middle East conflict.

Conviction: 49.4/100 A near-coin-flip score with only futures positive across all three major indexes today, and just 3.9% of the 1,420-name universe scoring high-conviction — a signal that gains may be narrow and stock-specific rather than broad-based.

On the calendar today Light data day: Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 6:30 a.m., the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August at 8:30 a.m., and Treasury auctions $92B in 13-week and $79B in 26-week bills at 11:30 a.m. Earnings are sparse; ABVX reports after the close. This follows a Fed that raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023, on Sept. 16.

Overnight & premarket

Stocks and bonds got a boost as oil retreats and positive anticipation builds ahead of a summit between Trump and Xi; S&P 500 futures advanced 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.8%. In Asia, the Nikkei was closed for holiday, Shanghai gained, and the Hang Seng jumped.

What to watch 1) Headlines into the Trump-Xi White House summit scheduled for Sept. 24, covering trade, tariffs, Taiwan, and AI. 2) Oil's path given the still-elevated $93 WTI backdrop. 3) Whether easing crude and yields can offset lingering war-risk premium.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Sept 15–19, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 names) returned +2.0% this week versus +11.0% for SPY, a wide gap driven mostly by sector positioning rather than stock-picking.

Attribution: Energy holdings were the bright spot as the Iran-conflict oil spike pushed WTI near $100 and Brent above $107, extending a rally that has energy leading among S&P sectors so far in 2026. Materials dragged: Steel Dynamics and Nucor shares fell more than 1.5% after third-quarter earnings guidance came in weaker than analysts expected. Sentiment in media names also softened after Netflix declined more than 3% following a Wells Fargo downgrade tied to weaker engagement and content trends. The model's underweight to mega-cap tech capped participation as the Nasdaq Composite was poised for a third winning week in four, with tech stocks leading the rebound after the central bank meeting.

Macro: The Fed unanimously raised rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday, and policymakers penciled in one more increase for 2026. Friday brought triple-witching volatility as the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high and hinted at more hikes ahead, pushing yields higher.

Regime: QNTM's overlay held "mildly bullish" (VIX 14.8), though conviction sat at just 49.4/100 across 1,420 names with only 3.9% high-conviction — a cautious undertone beneath the calm volatility print.

Next week: Watch the Trump-Xi summit, seen as a potential market wildcard, plus flash September PMIs and earnings from AutoZone, KB Home, Paychex, Cintas and General Mills.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 18, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell -0.42% today, trailing SPY's -0.12% by 30bps. Conviction sits at a neutral 48.4 across 1,420 scored names, with just 2.4% flagging high-conviction — a thin, cautious tape.

What drove it: Today was quadruple witching, the last hour of trading when options, futures and single-stock futures expire simultaneously, which can increase volatility. Market internals favored mega-cap tech: breadth was good with 63% of stocks advancing, the Nasdaq 100 and Magnificent Seven led while semiconductors rose close to 3%, but the Russell 2000 lagged, closing at the day's lows with a gain of just 0.6%. QNTM's 50-name model skews more diversified and less mega-cap-concentrated than SPY, so it missed the chip-led pop that carried the index — a small-cap/breadth gap, not a single blowup name.

Market recap: Indices were mixed-to-flat as oil prices and Treasury yields eased following the Fed's first interest rate hike in three years. Crude stayed elevated but off its highs amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, through which over 20% of world oil trade passes. Berkshire Hathaway drew attention as Warren Buffett stepped down as chairman, becoming chairman emeritus with son Howard Buffett taking the role.

What's next: Watch whether 10-year yields stabilize below 5% and how the oil/geopolitical situation evolves into next week's data.

This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF. Read: a hawkish Fed pivot plus an escalating Iran conflict are outweighing the still-low VIX (15.5), a classic "calm surface, nervous plumbing" setup.

Conviction: 48.4/100 Near the neutral midpoint, with only 3.0% of the 1,420-name universe scoring high-conviction — the model sees a broad, low-differentiation tape rather than a clear buy or sell signal.

On the calendar today No major scheduled data release stands out; this is triple-witching Friday, the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, and futures that hits every third Friday of March, June, September and December, which can add volume and late-day volatility. This follows Wednesday's headline event: the Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, its "decision passed on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote, with policymakers noting that 'inflation remains elevated.'"

Overnight & premarket

Policymakers voted unanimously to boost the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, lifting the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index by 0.5%, its best day in three months. Oil remains elevated on the ongoing Iran war stalemate; silver rose 2.34% to $67.64/oz and gold gained 0.49% to $4,421.30/oz in early trading as safe-haven demand builds. Lockheed Martin shares rose modestly in premarket trading after the Trump administration approved a potential $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia.

What to watch 1) Triple-witching flows into the close. 2) Any fresh Iran-conflict headlines. 3) Follow-through on the Fed's hawkish dot plot repricing rate expectations.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 17, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.25% today, trailing SPY's +1.15% gain — a wide gap on a day markets snapped back hard.

What drove it: QNTM's macro overlay stayed in RISK_OFF, with conviction at just 48.6 and only 2.9% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction." That defensive stance across the 45-holding model meant less exposure to the exact trade that powered SPY today: a tech/semiconductor rebound. The S&P 500 rose about 1% as a closely watched gauge of chipmakers climbed 3%, a bounce traders attributed to relief that Wednesday's hawkish Fed shock was already priced in and to Brent crude slipping to around $104 a barrel on signs Middle East supply disruptions were easing. QNTM's tariff-and-oil-spike flags (WTI still elevated near $101) kept the model's value/quality tilt intact rather than chasing the high-beta chip rally, capping upside participation.

Market recap: Futures rose Thursday after Wednesday's Fed decision, which delivered a first hike since 2023 — 25bps to 3.75%-4% — while signaling another increase later this year. Separately, President Trump threatened tariffs and a possible trade halt with the EU, adding to the tariff-related caution embedded in today's regime read. 10-year Treasury yields declined from their highest level since 2007, easing some pressure.

What's next: Markets will watch whether Fed officials reinforce or soften the hawkish dot-plot signal, and whether oil and tariff headlines stabilize enough to shift QNTM's regime out of RISK_OFF.

*Research and education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's models flag broad tariff actions, a hawkish Fed, hot inflation prints, and war de-escalation as the active macro currents — a mixed signal set that keeps the model cautious despite calm-looking volatility (VIX ~15.7).

Conviction: 48.3/100 A sub-50 mean composite across 1,421 scored names, with only 2.9% flagged high-conviction, points to a broad lack of standout setups — the model sees few stocks with edge on either side today.

On the calendar today Fed action is already behind the tape: the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023, delivered Wednesday with a hawkish tilt from Chair Warsh. Today's data: building permits, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and pending home sales, mostly at 8:30am ET.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures moved higher after the major averages declined in the previous session, with Dow futures up 0.2% and S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%/0.5%. Wednesday's close was rough: stocks closed lower after the Fed raised rates as expected, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4% and the Dow shedding 631 points. Notably, Generac jumped 33% in extended trading after Amazon received warrants to purchase up to $340 million worth of its shares tied to a data-center power supply deal. WTI sits near $99.50.

What to watch 1) Jobless claims/Philly Fed for signs the "stabilizing labor market" narrative holds. 2) Any follow-through selling in rate-sensitive sectors after the hawkish dot plot. 3) Friday's triple-witching expiration could add volume/volatility into the close.

QNTM Day Wrap — September 16, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned -0.6% today versus -0.43% for SPY, a modest underperformance in a session dominated by the Fed.

What drove it: QNTM's conviction score sits at just 48.0, with only 2.7% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — a thin, RISK_OFF signal that kept the 45-name model portfolio concentrated and more sensitive to today's whipsaw. The model's tilt away from rate-sensitive financials and tariff-exposed cyclicals proved costly as the Fed raised the overnight funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, the first hike since July 2023. Financial-related shares led the Dow's decline after Chair Warsh's press conference turned hawkish, and the model's underweight there missed any late bounce while its energy and tariff-sensitive holdings lagged as oil gave back gains.

Market recap: Stocks whipsawed all day. The Dow fell roughly 1.5%, the S&P 500 dropped about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.4%, with all three indices having been higher earlier before Warsh spoke. The Fed's dot plot signaled one more rate hike expected in 2026, and Warsh said "this summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved". Oil (WTI ~$102) eased from recent highs but stayed elevated amid ongoing tariff and geopolitical strains.

What's next: Markets will parse Fed commentary for October hike odds and watch whether oil's pullback holds.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK-OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a defensive stance driven by an oil-supply shock and a broad tariff backdrop layered on top of an already jumpy rates market.

Conviction: 48.3/100 A near-midpoint score with only 3.3% of the 1,421-name universe rated high-conviction signals a market offering few clean, high-confidence setups — breadth of opportunity is thin, not broad-based.

On the calendar today The Fed's two-day meeting concludes with a rate decision expected this afternoon, with markets pricing odds of a rate hike at 92%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool as of yesterday. Lennar (LEN) is expected to report earnings. Housing starts/permits follow tomorrow.

Overnight & premarket Stocks head in after a soft Tuesday: US stock indices closed lower on Tuesday under continued pressure from higher bond yields, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4%, the Dow shedding 328 points and the Nasdaq losing 0.6%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in nearly two decades. Crude has cooled slightly: Crude oil fell to $104.68/bbl on September 16, down 1.09%, though it remained close to its highest levels in over four months amid broadening Middle East supply disruptions, tied to Saudi Arabia canceling shipments after drone attacks forced closure of the East-West pipeline.

What to watch 1) The Fed decision/statement and Powell's tone on inflation risk from oil. 2) Further headlines on Saudi/Gulf supply disruptions and their pass-through to energy and airline/transport stocks. 3) Rate-sensitive sectors (tech, homebuilders) given yields near multi-decade highs.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

The model portfolio (45 holdings) returned +0.16% today versus SPY -0.49%, a ~65bp gap in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: The regime engine flagged RISK_OFF (VIX 17.4, WTI $105.6) alongside tariff, hawkish-Fed, and oil-spike flags. In practice, crude oil jumped 4.47% to nearly $106 while the Dow fell 0.80%, the S&P 500 0.47%, and the Nasdaq 0.75%. The pain was concentrated in chips: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.9%, with Nvidia and Intel dropping 3.4% and 5.6%, respectively, as investors braced for Wednesday's Fed decision and weighed fallout from an Anthropic AI-safety essay. QNTM's five-pillar screen has been trimming semiconductor/AI-momentum exposure for weeks on deteriorating sentiment and volume signals, which limited drag from that group. Meanwhile energy-tilted names benefited directly from the oil spike, cushioning the book. This selectivity — light on the day's biggest losers, present in the day's beneficiaries — explains the outperformance.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield surged as much as four basis points to 5.02%, moving above its 2023 peak to its highest level since 2007. A 25bp hike is now almost fully priced, with focus on whether Chair Warsh frames it as a one-off or signals further tightening.

Conviction: 48.3/100 (only 3.2% of 1,422 names scored high-conviction) — a cautious signal.

Next: All eyes on tomorrow's FOMC decision and Warsh's press conference.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, consistent with a session where Dow futures slid as oil prices surged and Treasury yields hit 2007 highs. Volatility remains contained (VIX ~17), but macro cross-currents — a hawkish Fed, energy-driven inflation risk, and unresolved Mideast tensions — are keeping risk appetite defensive.

Conviction: 48.7/100 A composite near the midpoint of QNTM's scale, with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe screening "high conviction." That's a signal of broad-based indecision across the five pillars rather than a clear directional edge — few names are standing out on momentum, quality, and value simultaneously.

On the calendar today The FOMC kicks off its two-day meeting Tuesday, September 15, concluding Wednesday with a policy decision that's widely expected to bring the first hike since 2023 given recent inflation data. No major scheduled data releases stand out pre-market; focus stays on Fed positioning into Wednesday's statement.

Overnight & premarket

Oman postponed planned talks with Iran about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, dashing hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, per Oman's Foreign Minister. Oil prices surged as hostilities escalated, with Brent crude rising above $108 a barrel Monday. Treasury yields extended their climb alongside energy costs.

What to watch 1) Fed commentary/leaks ahead of Wednesday's decision. 2) Oil-sensitive sectors (airlines, transports, consumer discretionary) reacting to crude near multi-month highs. 3) Any fresh Oman-Iran diplomatic headlines that could swing sentiment either direction.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 14, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (45 holdings) declined -0.16% today, outperforming SPY's -0.47% drop by 31 bps. Conviction across the 1,422-name universe sat at a below-average 48.6, with only 3.1% of stocks flagged high-conviction — consistent with QNTM's RISK_OFF regime read.

What drove it: The gap versus SPY traces to sector positioning. Markets were hit by a rout in chipmakers as leaders of artificial-intelligence giants called for a development slowdown, after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI model progress should be slowed, with OpenAI's Sam Altman agreeing the industry needs to "pace the frontier". Nvidia and Broadcom slumped, and a key semiconductor industry gauge sank 5.7%. With QNTM's model less concentrated in mega-cap chip names than SPY, it avoided the brunt of that selloff.

Market recap: The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%. Markets started the week on a defensive footing as oil jumped, with Brent gaining over 3% toward $106 after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted Saudi Arabia to temporarily shut its East-West pipeline. Friday's hotter CPI report pushed markets to price roughly an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on Wednesday.

What's next: The FOMC meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with the rate decision due Wednesday afternoon — the focal point for markets this week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF — a backdrop where the model favors capital preservation over aggressive positioning given elevated geopolitical and energy-price risk.

Conviction: 48.6/100 With only 2.7% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction," the data shows broad-based caution rather than a stock-picker's market — signal quality is thin across sectors today.

On the calendar today

There are no major earnings or data releases scheduled today. The bigger event is later this week: the Fed kicks off its meeting Tuesday, September 15, concluding Wednesday with a policy decision that markets widely expect to include a rate hike given recent inflation data.

Overnight & premarket

Asian stocks and US equity futures retreated after major AI companies called for a slowdown in the technology's development; MSCI's Asia Pacific index fell 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped over 1%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. Oil is surging further, with Brent crude up roughly 3% to about $107.65/barrel after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Chips, optical, data-center, and power-related names are broadly lower. SpaceX fell 2% premarket amid the broader AI-linked selloff.

What to watch 1. Oil-supply headlines out of Saudi Arabia/Strait of Hormuz — direction of crude has been the session's key driver. 2. Whether AI-sector sentiment stabilizes or extends its slide into the Fed week. 3. Positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended September 11, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) lagged SPY into the weekend, returning -1.07% on the session versus SPY's -0.77%, a ~30bp gap. Conviction across the 1,422-stock universe sat at just 48.6/100, with only 2.7% of names scoring "high conviction" — the model flagged a RISK_OFF regime for the week.

Attribution: Energy was the standout, with global energy stocks climbing to a record high, and the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) rising to its highest level since its 2001 inception, while healthcare stocks led declines alongside financials, with XLV tumbling on Novartis announcing two failed drug trial studies. Semis were a bright spot within tech.

Macro backdrop: The week was dominated by Brent hitting $108 a barrel on September 10, its highest level since May, as fighting between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensified, alongside an IRGC strike on a U.S. "Saildrone-type" unmanned vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Friday's August CPI showed gasoline jumping 3.9%, accounting for more than a third of the headline gain, with the energy index up 16.3% year-over-year, and the odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting jumped to nearly 90%.

Next week: All eyes on the Fed's interest rate announcement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 16 — a potential first hike since 2023.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, September 11, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio gained +0.4% today, trailing the SPY's +0.87% advance — a modest ~47bp lag on a day markets actually rallied.

What drove it: QNTM's regime engine flagged RISK_OFF overnight, and with conviction at just 48.7 (only 2.9% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction"), the model's 50 holdings were tilted toward defensive quality and value rather than the momentum names that led today's bounce. That mattered because the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund led all sectors with a 1.7% advance, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF was the standout, rallying 2.0%. QNTM's model was underweight that cohort, so it captured only a fraction of the tech/semis pop. Oracle dropped 4.0%, extending a post-earnings drift after second-quarter revenue missed consensus — a name QNTM's sentiment/quality screens had already flagged as weak, limiting damage to the model versus SPY's broader tech exposure.

Market recap: Stocks rebounded from four straight losing sessions as WTI crude fell 3.0% to $99.36, easing off this week's spike. Core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus, and Fed funds futures now price a near-90% chance of a hike at next week's FOMC meeting. VIX eased alongside the relief rally.

What's next: All eyes shift to next week's Fed decision — a hawkish surprise on tariffs/oil-driven inflation could quickly flip today's bounce.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX near 17 and WTI crude at ~$99. Read: defensive positioning is warranted after a rough stretch — stocks finished lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday, pressured by rising oil prices and Treasury yields.

Conviction: 48.6/100 Conviction sits near the midpoint, with only 2.8% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a signal of broad-based indecision across the five pillars — not a bullish or bearish tilt, just thin support for strong ideas right now.

On the calendar today The main event is the August consumer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, a key gauge of inflation. Economists expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% in August from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 2.4% annually. This lands just days before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, making its potential impact especially important. Thursday's PPI already ran hot: August's producer price index rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% from a year earlier.

Overnight & premarket

Futures rose in premarket trading as investors braced for the inflation data, with Dow and S&P futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.6%, after the major indexes extended their losing streak to four days. Notable mover: Oracle (ORCL) shares popped over 5% in premarket trading on strong cloud computing growth in the latest quarter. Oil prices were easing in premarket trading, but Brent crude was still trading above $104 a barrel.

What to watch 1. Whether CPI confirms or undercuts the hot PPI print — a surprise could reprice Fed expectations fast. 2. Oil/yield trajectory given tariff-driven cost pressures already in the tape. 3. Breadth: with conviction diffuse and high-conviction names scarce, watch if today's data creates a decisive sector rotation or just more chop.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 10, 2026

The model portfolio slipped 0.54% today, modestly outpacing SPY's 0.60% decline — a rare case where a RISK_OFF regime and rock-bottom conviction (48.6/100, only 2.5% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction") actually helped relative performance rather than hurt it.

What drove it: The drag came from broad-based risk-off pressure, not a single sector blowup. A sharp decline in technology shares and a spike in energy costs dampened sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading the decline and the Technology sector SPDR dropping 1.3% as investors rotated out of high-growth names. With the model's five-pillar screen already tilted defensively under the current regime overlay, its lighter momentum/growth-tech exposure limited losses versus SPY's tech-heavy weighting. Meanwhile the Energy sector SPDR advanced 1.1%, a tailwind for any energy holdings as WTI held near $102.59.

Market recap: The Dow lost 0.8% to close at 52,380.66, the Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 26,253.34, and the S&P 500 slid 0.5% to 7,636.36. The catalyst was a hotter-than-expected inflation print: producer prices jumped 0.4% in August as the war in Iran lifted wholesale energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.845%, its highest since November 2023. Traders are now pricing a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, up from 62% before the data.

What's next: Friday's CPI report is the next major catalyst ahead of next week's FOMC decision — expect volatility to stay elevated. This is research commentary, not investment advice.

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's macro overlay sits in neutral territory — no strong tailwind or headwind signal, consistent with a market pinned between inflation risk and steady growth data.

Conviction: 48.8/100 A composite near the midpoint, with only 2.6% of the 1,422-name universe screening "high conviction" — the model sees a broadly balanced, low-clarity tape rather than a clear directional edge.

On the calendar today

August Producer Price Index data is due at 8:30 am ET, with headline PPI M/M estimated at +0.4% (prior 0.0%) and Y/Y +5.3%; core PPI M/M est. +0.3%, Y/Y +4.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims and August existing home sales are also scheduled for release this morning. The European Central Bank holds its policy meeting later this morning, with a rate hike widely expected. The FOMC's pre-meeting "quiet period" continues through September 17 ahead of the Sept. 15–16 meeting. Corporate news flow includes Wealthfront's Q2 report, an Axogen acquisition announcement, and an FDA-related setback for Biohaven.

Overnight & premarket

Futures are mixed after Wednesday's third straight decline — Dow +125 (0.24%), S&P +0.09%, Nasdaq -0.21%. Treasury yields have climbed to 3-year highs, with the 10-yr above 4.85%, while Brent crude sits above $102/bbl amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.

What to watch 1) PPI surprise vs. elevated inflation expectations heading into Friday's CPI; 2) ECB decision and any spillover to rates/dollar; 3) Oil/yield trajectory — both near multi-year highs and a persistent drag on risk appetite.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 9, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell 0.17% today, outperforming SPY's 0.45% decline by 28 basis points. QNTM's regime engine flagged RISK_OFF conditions, with conviction across the 1,422-name scored universe sitting at just 48.8 (only 2.7% of names screened high-conviction) — a defensively postured backdrop the 50-stock model was already leaning into.

What drove it: Today's tape punished energy-sensitive and rate-sensitive cyclicals, but also lifted energy itself. Energy and utility stocks were the only sector gainers, while industrials and consumer cyclicals fell the most. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July as tensions in the Middle East escalate again, and 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.81% as oil prices raised concerns ahead of this week's CPI and PPI data. QNTM's model likely benefited from lighter industrials/discretionary exposure and any energy tilt, avoiding the brunt of the cyclical drawdown that hit the broader SPY.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.4-0.6% intraday while the Dow dropped over 390-400 points, per tradingeconomics data showing the index down 0.58% with the Dow dropping 396 points. Adding to the risk-off mood, the US-Canada trade dispute escalated further, with Washington banning certain Canadian dairy and alcohol imports and limiting government procurement access, while the US-Iran conflict flared with US missile strikes on Iranian oil tankers and Iranian retaliation against US positions in Jordan. Notable single-name divergence: Meta jumped on positive reaction to its new AI agent, Muse, while Casey's General Stores fell almost 15% despite an earnings beat.

What's next: Markets stay focused on incoming CPI/PPI inflation data and any de-escalation signals on both the tariff and Iran fronts — both key inputs for QNTM's macro-regime overlay.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, and the tape agrees: escalating US-Iran conflict is overriding fundamentals, with defensive positioning likely to dominate the session.

Conviction: 49.1/100 A near-neutral composite across QNTM's ~1,422-stock universe, with only 2.8% scoring "high conviction" — the model sees a genuinely uncertain, thin-opportunity backdrop rather than any clear direction.

On the calendar today No major US data releases are scheduled for Wednesday, September 9. There are no noteworthy economic reports scheduled for release on Wednesday, September 9. Markets are instead positioning ahead of Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI. The BLS will release the PPI report before Thursday's opening bell and the CPI report before Friday's opening bell. The FOMC is in its blackout period ahead of the Sept 15-16 meeting. A notable non-economic event: Apple's iPhone launch event is later this afternoon.

Overnight & premarket US futures pointed lower, with the Dow down 266 points (0.50%), S&P 500 down 24.25 (0.32%), and Nasdaq down 138 (0.47%). Overnight, CENTCOM said forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers after the IRGC targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days, though Central Command dismissed reports Iranian forces had hit its warships, calling the claim "completely FALSE." Brent is testing $100 while the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest closing level since 2023, around 4.82%. Overseas, Nikkei rose 0.6% on tech/AI stocks, Hang Seng fell 0.2%, and the ASX200 hit a fresh six-week low.

What to watch 1) Any headline escalation/de-escalation in the Iran conflict — oil and yields are the transmission mechanism into equities. 2) Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, now the key inputs for the Sept 15-16 FOMC decision. 3) Apple's product event and semiconductor names, which have been offsetting some of the macro drag.

QNTM Day Wrap — September 8, 2026

The model portfolio (50 holdings) returned -0.66% today, essentially in line with SPY's -0.62%, a modest ~4bp shortfall. QNTM's regime flag stayed RISK_OFF, even as VIX held a relatively calm 15.6.

What drove it: The tape was pressured by a fast-moving mix of tariff and geopolitical headlines. Oil prices extended gains on reports Yemen's Houthis attacked four cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze, pushing WTI to $93.64 in QNTM's feed. Separately, Canada followed through Tuesday on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, hitting dairy, furniture, appliances and other categories with levies from 15% to 50%. Mega-cap tech was a laggard — losses were led by Apple (-2.55%), Alphabet (-2.10%) and Microsoft (-2.05%) — while top gainers were Caterpillar (1.65%), Honeywell International (0.95%) and Home Depot (0.88%), an energy/industrial tilt consistent with oil-driven rotation. Healthcare also came under pressure after Amgen fell 8% and shares were pressured after Novartis' cholesterol drug failed in a closely watched study, raising concerns for Amgen's experimental cholesterol drug. QNTM's model tracked SPY closely, suggesting no major sector bet paid off or hurt meaningfully today.

Broader tape: The S&P 500 fell to 7,707, down 0.15% on the session, a quiet finish given the volatile headline flow.

Next: Markets shift focus to this week's CPI and PPI prints for inflation confirmation.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a fitting stance given crossed signals: Middle East military escalation is pushing oil sharply higher even as US-brokered Russia-Ukraine diplomacy offers a partial offset. Net effect: elevated macro uncertainty despite calm-looking VIX (15.7).

Conviction: 49.3/100 A near-neutral reading across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.2% at "high conviction." This signals the model sees a balanced, low-consensus tape — not a broad tailwind or headwind for stocks.

On the calendar today NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00 AM ET); 3-year Treasury note auction (1:00 PM ET). The FOMC "quiet period" ahead of the September 15-16 meeting began September 5 and runs through September 17, so no Fed speakers today. Several early-morning earnings reports are on deck (ABM, CAN, UNFI).

Overnight & premarket

U.S. futures are mixed, with Dow futures down over 300 points while Brent crude approaches $100 a barrel after Saudi energy facility operations were halted following Houthi attacks; the 10-year Treasury yield trades near 4.80%. Oil climbed further after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, and Canada's retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion of US goods take effect today. Novartis shares are down sharply after two failed drug studies, pressuring AMGN, LLY, IONS, DYN and SRPT.

What to watch 1) Oil-driven inflation-expectations move as Brent nears $100. 2) Follow-through on Canada tariff retaliation and any trade-policy headlines. 3) Whether Ukraine diplomacy headlines offset Middle East risk premium.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended September 5, 2026

QNTM's model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +1.64% this week versus +0.41% for SPY, a roughly 1.2-point edge. The five-pillar composite averaged 49.2 across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.1% flagged high-conviction — a mildly bullish regime, but thin breadth under the surface.

What drove it: Energy-linked and momentum names carried the book as WTI crude rose to $91.48 a barrel as of September 1, up from $87.03, a gain of more than 5% on the week, tied to renewed US-Iran friction earlier in the week before signals of de-escalation. Fintech/momentum exposure was a standout — Robinhood Markets led gainers with a 16.9% weekly advance — while a quality/value holding lagged after Fair Isaac led decliners, falling 18.67% amid rate-hike anxiety hitting credit-sensitive names. Individual stocks swung by double digits in both directions even as the index barely moved.

Macro backdrop: Friday's jobs report was the week's hinge — jobs growth surged to 162,000 in August with unemployment steady at 4.1%, versus expectations of 45,000 to 55,000, pushing yields higher and rate-hike odds up. QNTM's low VIX (14.5) reflects the war-de-escalation tailwind offsetting that hawkish jolt.

Next week: Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day; September 10 brings the ECB decision, PPI data, and earnings from Oracle, Macy's and Adobe, followed by August CPI on September 11 — the last major data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 4, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned ‑0.51% today, trailing the SPY benchmark's ‑0.41% by about 10 basis points — a modest but real gap given the model's more concentrated, 50-name book.

What drove it: The divergence traces to the model's tilt toward higher-beta growth and consumer-discretionary names, which bore the brunt of today's rate-hike repricing. Tesla shares dropped more than 6% Friday after the electric-vehicle maker's Cybercab launch left analysts with more questions than answers, and Lululemon plummeted on disappointing results — both name-specific hits that likely weighed on model holdings more than on the broader cap-weighted SPY, which had cushioning from defensive sectors. Conviction sat at a middling 49.4 across 1,422 scored names, with just 3.2% flagged high-conviction — a thin opportunity set typical of a choppy, data-driven session.

Market recap: The Dow fell 0.5% (272 points) and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%, after nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 in August, much more than the 53,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and Treasury yields rose as fed funds futures traders priced in a roughly 58% chance of a September rate hike. The VIX stayed low near 14.3, and WTI crude eased to $91.50, consistent with the session's "good news is bad news" tone.

What's next: Markets shift focus to next week's CPI/PPI data, key inputs for the Fed's September decision. Markets closed Monday, Sept. 7 for Labor Day.

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's overlay reads mildly bullish, consistent with a market drifting to fresh short-term highs even as tariff and Middle East headlines linger in the background.

Conviction: 48.9/100 A near-midpoint score across 1,422 names, with only 2.7% flagged high-conviction — breadth is thin even though the macro backdrop is constructive.

On the calendar today

The August 2026 US jobs report lands Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus around a rebound after nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against a Dow Jones consensus of +83,000. With rates at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025, the question is whether the FOMC hikes on September 16; a weak report would reduce near-term hike odds. US stock and bond markets will be closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.5% ahead of the data. Oil pulled back from recent highs, with WTI falling 0.82% to $90.55 and Brent slipping to $95.04. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.818% this week, a level not seen since November 2023, though it's eased on dovish Fed commentary.

What to watch 1) Payrolls reaction — a strong print could raise hike odds instead of the usual relief rally; 2) any further Iran-related oil swings; 3) whether low VIX (14.15) masks the market's narrow conviction breadth.

QNTM Post-Close Wrap — Thursday, September 3, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.48% today, outpacing SPY's +1.04% by roughly 44 bps. The model's 50-name book, running in a "mildly bullish" regime with conviction at 49.5 (only 3.7% of the 1,422-name universe scored high-conviction), leaned into the session's AI/momentum leadership.

What drove it: The tape's biggest single-name catalysts were Nvidia, which gained on news that it will acquire artificial intelligence (AI) platform Hugging Face, and Snowflake, whose stock soared over 20% this morning after a blowout quarter. A model with AI/software exposure captured that momentum. On the drag side, Broadcom shares dropped, despite beating analyst expectations in yesterday's earnings, a reminder that even solid results can lag when guidance disappoints — a headwind for any tech-heavy sleeve holding it.

Market recap: All three major stock indexes ended in positive territory, with the Dow advancing 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rising on solid AI-stock performance. Nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher, led by Materials and Communications. Fed Governor Waller said he'd lean toward holding rates steady unless there are major inflation surprises, contrasting with Chairman Warsh's inflation-hawk stance. Meanwhile, oil rose after U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats revived Middle East supply concerns, keeping WTI near $91-92 — the war-escalation flag QNTM tracked today.

Next: All eyes turn to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, then a holiday-shortened week and the Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH for the session, with VIX at a subdued 15.38 — a sign that despite months of Iran-related headline risk, options markets aren't pricing near-term panic.

Conviction: 48.9/100 The average composite across QNTM's scored universe sits right at the midpoint, with only 3.4% of the 1,421 names screened flagging as high-conviction — a signal of a stock-picker's market rather than a broad, one-way trend.

On the calendar today

August ISM Services PMI and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN) and lululemon (LULU) headline the day. Economists look for the Services PMI at 56.8 versus 54.6 prior, alongside Initial Jobless Claims expected at 205K versus 203K prior. August nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate follow tomorrow, September 4.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were mixed as investors reacted to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields. That comes after the S&P 500 and Dow jumped Wednesday after back-to-back losing days. WTI sits near $92, consistent with QNTM's macro tag pointing to a partial de-escalation in Middle East tensions overnight.

What to watch 1) ISM Services PMI — a beat could ease growth worries; 2) Any fresh Iran headlines given oil's sensitivity; 3) Lululemon/Ciena earnings as early reads on consumer and networking demand ahead of Friday's jobs report.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — September 2, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.82% today, roughly double SPY's +0.41% gain. With only 50 holdings versus SPY's 500+, the model's concentrated stance amplified today's move.

What drove it: Wednesday's advance was a mega-cap tech and financials story. Stocks rose as Treasury yields took a breather from their recent run-up, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each advancing 0.5% and the Dow adding about 295 points, boosted by Nvidia and Johnson & Johnson. Technology companies and banks led the gains after elevated yields had hampered credit-sensitive industries, with Meta jumping 2.5%, Wells Fargo surging 3%, Nvidia climbing nearly 5% on reports it's nearing a $14 billion Hugging Face acquisition, and Dell soaring up to 10% after beating earnings and raising guidance. A concentrated, quality/momentum-tilted book with exposure to these names would plausibly explain today's ~40bp edge over the broad-market SPY.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of 4.818% Wednesday — a level not seen since November 2023 — with yields also rising in the U.K., Germany and France. ADP reported private payrolls added just 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest since January. WTI crude settled up almost 1% near $91.01/barrel. QNTM's regime signal stayed NEUTRAL, VIX near 15, and conviction sat at 49.0 with only 3.6% of the 1,422-stock universe rated high-conviction.

What's next: Markets await a wave of after-hours tech earnings and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for direction. This is research, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF — a defensive backdrop where the model favors quality and low-volatility factors over pure momentum chasing.

Conviction: 48.8/100 A near-midpoint reading with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe hitting high-conviction status signals broad-based caution rather than a clear buy or sell signal across the tape.

On the calendar today

September 2: ADP August nonfarm employment, July factory orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO), Snowflake (SNOW), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), NetApp (NTAP), and Five Below (FIVE).

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were falling as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran boosted oil prices and sent bond yields higher. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield hit a high of 4.814% on the day, its highest level since November 2023. Gold futures fell 0.94% to $4,355 an ounce in early trading. Tuesday's session saw the S&P 500 and the Dow fall up to 0.7%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 2%.

What to watch 1) Iran conflict headlines — oil prices are climbing due to renewed military clashes between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns about crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

2) The Beige Book and Fed commentary for hawkish signals amid rising yields. 3) Canada's retaliatory tariffs, confirmed at 15%, 25%, or 50% on more than 700 US-origin products, scheduled to take effect September 8, 2026, keep trade-war risk in focus alongside after-hours tech earnings.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — September 1, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.44% today, outperforming SPY's -0.69% decline by 25 basis points — a rare case of the model's defensive posture paying off in a down session.

What drove it: QNTM's macro-regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF ahead of the open, trimming exposure heading into a session dominated by two shocks flagged in our system — "fed_hawkish" and "war_escalation." That defensive tilt likely spared the model from the worst of today's tech selloff: the Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back 1%, with crude surging and stocks diving early as investors monitored overnight attacks on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with tech taking the brunt of the blow, especially chip stocks. Conviction across the scored universe (1,422 names) sat at just 48.8, with only 3.2% of stocks screening high-conviction — signaling broad model caution, not a bet on any single name.

Market recap: Inflation worries and elevated oil prices lifted bond yields, raising concern about whether the Fed will tighten policy later this month. U.S. crude gained 5.2% to $90.22/barrel while Brent added 4.6% to $94.65, and odds of a September rate hike hit 66%, up from 40% a week ago.

What's next: Watch upcoming job-openings and manufacturing data, plus any de-escalation headlines out of the Middle East, for the next directional cue.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime flag is set to Risk-Off, with VIX at 15.8 and WTI crude at $87.76. Read: volatility itself is contained, but energy prices and macro headline risk (tariffs, war escalation) are doing the work of tightening financial conditions.

Conviction: 49.4/100 A near-coin-flip average across 1,422 scored names, with just 3.4% rated high-conviction. This implies the model sees little broad-based opportunity today — signals are scattered rather than concentrated, consistent with a defensive tape.

On the calendar today Heavy data morning: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (~9:45 AM ET), ISM Manufacturing PMI for August at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, and JOLTS job openings, also at 10:00 AM ET. No FOMC meeting today, but bond markets are pricing rate-hike risk.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were falling and oil prices were rising amid renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Two oil tankers, one Saudi and one South Korean-owned, were hit by projectiles Monday night. Microsoft, Palantir, Alphabet, and Tesla dropped up to 1% premarket, while banks and credit providers also fell, with JPMorgan and Visa down 0.7%.

What to watch 1) ISM Prices Index and new-orders component for tariff/oil pass-through signals. 2) Any Strait of Hormuz shipping/escalation headlines. 3) 10-year yield reaction to JOLTS — the 10Y yield remains elevated near 4.76%, keeping the macro backdrop less friendly for duration-sensitive equities.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, August 31, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.25% today while SPY fell -0.29% — a roughly 54-bp gap in a session where the broad market leaned risk-off.

What drove it: Ten of 11 S&P sectors finished negative, with only one in the green — consistent with energy being the standout as U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, prompting Iranian retaliatory claims against U.S. bases, which drove crude above $85 and pushed 10-year Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025. Tech was a laggard: the Nasdaq slipped 0.5% on weak AI-stock performance, with PayPal the biggest loser after a reported buyout deal fell through. QNTM's model, built on a five-pillar composite rather than cap-weighted tech exposure, wasn't leaning on that crowded AI trade today — a structural difference that helped it avoid the session's sharpest drawdowns. Conviction sits at a neutral 49.0 across 1,422 names, with only 3.2% flagged high-conviction, signaling narrow, selective leadership rather than a broad "buy everything" signal.

Market recap: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,711.76, the Dow dropped 0.9% (464 points) to 53,885.10, snapping a win streak. Chicago PMI came in at 47.1, well below the 58 estimate and down from 57.6 in July. VIX ticked up modestly but stayed contained near 15.

What's next: Watch for any follow-through on Middle East headlines and this week's labor-market data, which could reset Fed rate-path expectations.

*Educational research only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flipped defensive as oil-supply shock and hawkish Fed rhetoric collide — a combination that historically compresses risk appetite even with VIX still contained near 15.

Conviction: 49.3/100 A near-neutral reading (3.4% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction") signals the model sees few clean long setups today — consistent with a market digesting geopolitical and rate-hike risk simultaneously rather than trending decisively either way.

On the calendar today Monday, August 31 is quiet on the data front, with no major U.S. releases. Markets are still absorbing Friday's Jackson Hole fallout, where Warsh at Jackson Hole gave a more hawkish reading of the economy than he had in July, and fed funds futures now imply odds of a September hike rising to about 60% from 35%. The heavier data (ISM, JOLTS, ADP, nonfarm payrolls) lands later this week, with the economy expected to have added 45,000 jobs in August, following an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs in July.

Overnight & premarket

Oil jumped in early Asia trading as Middle East tensions accelerated, after the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, ending weeks of relative calm. Energy stocks rose, with U.S. oil prices up more than 3% and Halliburton up more than 2.5% and Chevron up 2% in premarket trading. China's August manufacturing PMI shrank for a second straight month, coming in at 49.8 versus 49.2 in July, though better than the 49.6 forecast. S&P futures were soft after Friday's 0.3% decline.

What to watch 1) Headline risk from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation and its pass-through to oil (WTI ~$86) and energy-sector rotation. 2) PG&E sank 16% after California lawmakers blocked wildfire-liability legislation, prompting several Wall Street downgrades — a read on utility-sector liability risk broadly. 3) Fed-speak and rate-hike repricing ahead of Friday's jobs report, which could swing the RISK_OFF regime either direction.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, Aug 28, 2026

QNTM's 50-name model slipped -0.32% today, trailing SPY's -0.20% by 12 bps. The regime stayed "Mildly Bullish," but conviction was tepid at 49.2/100 with only 3.3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring high-conviction — a market with few standout signals.

What drove it: The gap traces to the model's momentum/quality tilt getting caught on the wrong side of a volatile session. Stocks edged lower as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first speech at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, saying the economy "appears to have strengthened." He also acknowledged inflation is running hot, saying "while this summer's [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." That hawkish framing hit rate-sensitive and richly-valued growth pockets hardest — the same names momentum screens tend to overweight. Real-world dispersion was stark: PayPal fell over 12% and IREN dropped more than 13%, while Amazon jumped 3.34% on separate catalysts. Broader tape action showed gold slipping, the 10-year yield ticking up to 4.70%, with communication services leading sector gains while industrials and healthcare lagged — a mixed, rotation-heavy backdrop that's tough for concentrated factor tilts.

Macro backdrop: Broad tariff headlines and a partial Middle East war de-escalation added cross-currents alongside the Fed. VIX stayed low (14.4), signaling contained fear despite the hawkish tone.

What's next: Next week's labor data and any follow-through on Warsh's inflation language will likely set the tone — watch whether hawkish-Fed pressure broadens beyond growth names.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH — consistent with low volatility (VIX ~14.4) and a market grinding higher into a big Fed speech rather than bracing for a shock.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral reading (3.7% of the 1,422-name universe scores "high conviction") — the model sees a fairly balanced tape, not a broad green light, as traders wait on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks before committing capital.

On the calendar today The headline event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's address at Jackson Hole, with traders looking for clarity on his economic outlook and strategy for bringing inflation back to target, expected around 10:00 a.m. ET. This caps a week where the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in slightly hotter than expected in July, ahead of Warsh's speech, and Friday brings revised consumer sentiment data.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were little changed, leaving the index on course for a weekly advance, while Nasdaq 100 contracts gave back some of the gains sparked by Nvidia's blockbuster outlook. Movers: PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm; Marvell and Rubrik fell more than 7% in premarket trading, while Elastic held a roughly 20% gain on earnings.

What to watch 1) Warsh's tone on rates/inflation — any hawkish surprise could hit the low-VIX complacency. 2) Follow-through (or fade) in chip/software earnings reactions (MRVL, RBRK, ESTC, WDAY). 3) Oil (~$82.86 WTI) and tariff/geopolitical headlines given ongoing Iran de-escalation dynamics.

*Research & education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Wednesday, August 27, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.64% today, essentially matching SPY's +0.66% — a rare close-to-flat relative day in a session that was anything but flat under the surface.

What drove it: The S&P 500 rose while the average constituent fell, with one company adding roughly $435bn in market cap. That company was Nvidia, which leaped 9% higher after reporting an earnings beat and signaling strong AI demand throughout next year. Breadth was weak — ten of eleven S&P sectors traded lower, led by declines in defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples, as money rotated into semis and software behind strong earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta. With QNTM's model spread across 50 names rather than concentrated in a single mega-cap, it captured the broad tech tailwind without the outsized single-stock lift that flattered cap-weighted SPY — landing it a few basis points shy of the benchmark rather than notably ahead or behind.

Market recap: The Nasdaq rose 1.57%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.72%, and the Dow climbed about 0.2%. Wednesday's PCE data had shown inflation remained sticky heading into the Fed's Jackson Hole gathering. QNTM's conviction score sat at a neutral 49.6 with only 3.5% of the 1,422-stock universe flagged high-conviction — consistent with a mildly bullish but narrow tape.

What's next: All eyes turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for signals on the rate path amid still-elevated core inflation.

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime overlay reads mildly bullish, consistent with a VIX near 14.9 and oil holding around $82 — a backdrop of low volatility and manageable energy costs that typically favors risk-taking without excess euphoria.

Conviction: 49.5/100 A near-midpoint composite across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.0% flagged high-conviction — signal is muted and dispersion is low; no broad tailwind or headwind is dominating factor scores today.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims are due this morning. This is day one of the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29); Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote is Friday, August 28 at 10:00am ET, not today. Earnings on deck include Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Burlington Stores, Best Buy, Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Affirm Holdings, and Ulta Beauty.

Overnight & premarket

Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter, beating expectations, with shares reversing an initial post-earnings drop after Wednesday's close. Broader futures were pointing higher, with Dow futures up 0.25%, S&P 500 futures up 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.66%. On geopolitics, Qatar's Prime Minister is traveling to Tehran to discuss mediation and encourage a return to U.S.-Iran negotiations, aligning with the war-de-escalation macro tag.

What to watch 1) Follow-through (or fade) in NVDA and AI-capex peers after earnings. 2) Retail earnings (Best Buy, Dollar stores, Ulta) for consumer-spending signals ahead of Friday's Fed speech. 3) Positioning into Jackson Hole, given lingering tariff and inflation uncertainty.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 26, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.45% today versus +0.01% for SPY, a meaningful outperformance in a session where the broad market barely moved. US stocks were mostly lower amid losses from heavyweight chip producers ahead of earnings results from Nvidia, with the S&P 500 and Dow inching below the flatline and the Nasdaq 100 falling 0.5%.

What drove it: QNTM flagged a RISK_OFF regime today with conviction at just 49.6/100 and only 3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — a defensive signal that kept the model light on mega-cap semis and AI-capex names. Nvidia shares wavered ahead of their earnings release after the bell, and Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon all traded lower. That underweight is a big reason the model didn't share in the chip-led drag. On the positive side, Meta jumped 4% after agreeing to a $16.7 billion settlement with US states over social media strategy for teens — a name the model's sentiment/quality pillars had favored.

Macro backdrop: A closely watched US price gauge rose in line with expectations in July, with core PCE up 0.2% and 3.3% year-over-year, giving the Fed some room to hold rates near-term. Headline PCE ran a touch hot at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected. WTI crude sat near $82. VIX stayed subdued at 15.3 despite the cautious regime read.

What's next: Nvidia's earnings, released after the close, will likely set the tone for tech and the broader tape tomorrow.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a defensive posture despite calm volatility readings, reflecting lingering tariff and geopolitical crosscurrents rather than acute stress.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral composite across 1,421 scored names, with only 3.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees a market waiting on catalysts rather than trending decisively either way.

On the calendar today The main event is the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, with economists expecting 3.3%, unchanged from the prior month. Also due: July personal income/spending, Q2 GDP second estimate, and July durable goods orders, alongside earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, Williams-Sonoma, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, and Okta. Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close.

Overnight & premarket

Futures were mixed ahead of the session as investors awaited Nvidia's results and the inflation data, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.20% and S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, while Dow futures were up 0.07%. Oil continued declining as war-widening concerns eased and Iran and Oman were reportedly close to a deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Intuit's guidance-driven selloff deepened in premarket trading.

What to watch 1) Core PCE reading vs. the 3.3% consensus and its rate-path implications. 2) Nvidia's after-hours print given its outsized index weight. 3) Follow-through on the Strait of Hormuz talks and oil's slide toward $80 WTI, consistent with QNTM's war-deescalation flag.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 25, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell -0.53% today while SPY gained +0.31% — a roughly 84 bp gap. QNTM's regime flag was RISK_OFF, triggered by the ongoing "tariff_broad" macro event, and average conviction across the 1,422-name scored universe sat at just 49.7, with only 3.4% of stocks rated high-conviction. That defensive posture likely caused the model to miss today's move higher.

What drove it: The broad tape was led by tech and healthcare — the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.57 percent, with technology and healthcare leading. The standout was Moderna, which surged 13.89 percent to $158.18 on positive Phase 3 trial data for a personalized melanoma vaccine developed with Merck — a name a risk-off, tariff-cautious model would plausibly be underweight. On the downside, DICK'S Sporting Goods cratered 29% on a Foot Locker miss, illustrating how single-name shocks in consumer discretionary can hit concentrated portfolios. With tariff escalation still front and center — Canada announced retaliatory tariffs applying to roughly $20 billion in goods, set to take effect Sept. 8, ranging from 15% to 50% — QNTM's overlay stayed defensive.

Market recap: The S&P 500 gained 24.39 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 7,677.25, though volume was lighter than average, suggesting narrow conviction behind the gains. VIX held low near 15.5.

What's next: Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks Friday are the key catalysts to watch.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF — QNTM's regime engine flags risk-off, consistent with a market digesting fresh tariff headlines and escalating geopolitical conflict; this typically favors defensive positioning and lower gross exposure.

Conviction: 49.8/100 — A near-neutral reading across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.7% screening as high-conviction. That's a signal of broad indecision rather than a clear bullish or bearish tilt — the model isn't finding many stocks with strong, aligned signals across momentum, quality, volume, value, and sentiment right now.

On the calendar today: Stocks are prepared for Nvidia's quarterly results, along with a key inflation report and the Federal Reserve's annual symposium, with the PCE price index for July due Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expected to speak at Jackson Hole. Broader earnings flow remains heavy this week.

Overnight & premarket: US stock-index futures gained as pressure on technology shares eased; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% after the underlying gauge fell almost 1% Monday on a chip-stock selloff, while European shares were set to open higher and Asia-Pacific stocks erased earlier losses. Monday's session saw futures pressured by tech weakness and a deteriorating macro backdrop, with oil easing but staying elevated as the US pledged to economically isolate Iran. WTI sits near $82.41.

What to watch: 1. Nvidia earnings reaction and whether chip-sector jitters extend or fade. 2. Any fresh tariff or Iran-related headlines given today's macro tags (tariff_broad, war_escalation). 3. Positioning ahead of Wednesday's July PCE print and Fed commentary out of Jackson Hole.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, August 24, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio fell 0.77% today, underperforming SPY's 0.28% decline by roughly half a point. The model's 49-name book carries above-benchmark exposure to semiconductors, and that concentration was the main drag: Micron Technology shed more than 5%, while Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom pulled back 3% and 2%, respectively, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF slid 2%. Chip weakness reflects nervousness ahead of Nvidia's earnings later this week and jitters over AI capex payback, not a single stock-specific shock.

Broader market: the S&P 500 fell slightly as a drop in key technology stocks overshadowed lower Treasury yields, closing at 7,652.96, while the Nasdaq lost 0.76% to 25,980.19; the Dow gained 0.26%. The session's macro backdrop lines up with QNTM's RISK_OFF regime flag: Canadian stocks whipsawed after trade talks with the US collapsed, threatening a wider trade fight, with PM Mark Carney recalling negotiators from Washington, and the Trump administration slapped 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, with Carney vowing retaliatory tariffs starting Sept. 8. Middle East sanctions headlines added to the cautious tone. Conviction sits at 49.7 with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe scoring high-conviction — a thin, defensive posture.

What's next: Nvidia earnings midweek and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday are the key catalysts to watch. This is research/education, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, flagging both broad tariff and war-escalation risk — consistent with a market bracing for policy and geopolitical headlines rather than chasing momentum.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Across 1,422 scored names, only 3.8% screen as high-conviction — a neutral, split-the-difference reading that suggests no broad edge on either side of the tape today.

On the calendar today

Monday data includes Mexican inflation and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, with Treasury Secretary Bessent among scheduled speakers; PDD and Xpeng report earnings. Bessent is expected to reveal details of sanctions plans against Iran later today. It's otherwise a quiet data day ahead of Wednesday's PCE report and Nvidia earnings, with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium starting later in the week.

Overnight & premarket

The 10-year Treasury yield is near a 20-month high of 4.74%. Futures were pressured by new US sanctions against Iran, failed US-Canada trade talks, and reciprocal tariff threats. Premarket movers include HOOD +13.70%, BABA -8.57%, and MRVL -5.57%. PDD reports Q2 results premarket today, with focus on consumer spending trends.

What to watch 1) Details and market reaction to the Iran sanctions announcement. 2) Whether elevated yields continue pressuring rate-sensitive and growth names. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's PCE print and Nvidia's earnings, likely keeping volume light today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended Friday, August 22, 2026

QNTM's model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.7% this week versus SPY's -0.9%, a ~1.6-point edge. The broad tape struggled: major indexes were poised to register weekly declines for the first time since late July, pressured early by renewed concerns that the US-Iran war could reignite, which pushed oil and long-end Treasury yields higher (WTI closed near $87).

What drove it: Health care was the standout sector after Moderna and Merck said its mRNA treatment was successful in its late-stage clinical trial, sending the Health Care index up more than 4% on the week — QNTM's quality/momentum overlap in that group added the bulk of relative gains. On the downside, consumer discretionary names lagged as Nike shares traded at lows not seen since September 2014, weighing on the model's smaller retail sleeve.

Macro backdrop: QNTM flipped to RISK_OFF for the Aug 22 session, flagging tariff and war-escalation triggers alongside firmer oil and rising long-term yields. Conviction across the 1,422-name universe sits at a neutral 50.1, with only 3.8% of stocks scoring "high conviction" — a narrow, cautious signal set consistent with the defensive tilt.

Next week: July PCE inflation and Nvidia earnings land Wednesday, followed by the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, kicking off Thursday with new Chair Kevin Warsh speaking Friday — a likely volatility catalyst.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, August 21, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +1.38% today, more than triple SPY's +0.4% gain, in a session the system flagged as RISK_OFF (VIX 15.2, WTI $86.80) amid ongoing tariff and war-escalation macro tags.

What drove it: With conviction at just 50.4 and only 4.4% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction," the model's 50 holdings were concentrated in quality/value names — a tilt that paid off as the broad market recouped losses. Wall Street had closed lower Thursday as tensions between the United States and Iran rose, heightening geopolitical concerns, hitting rate-sensitive tech and tariff-exposed retail hardest — Walmart fell 9.2% after weak guidance. QNTM's screens historically underweight names with deteriorating momentum/sentiment like this. Friday's rebound was led by defensives and financials: the Dow was up about 517 points, or 0.98%, supported by gains in healthcare stocks such as Merck and Johnson & Johnson, while Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and American Express paced large-cap gains — sectors QNTM's model overweighted, explaining the spread versus a cap-weighted SPY.

Market recap: US stocks were slightly higher on Friday, pausing the week's losses as markets continued gauging risks from higher energy prices and bond yields; the S&P 500 and Dow rose around 0.4%, while the Nasdaq inched above the flatline. A report showed US business activity grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, offsetting bond-market jitters.

What's next: Watch whether Treasury's debt-buyback moves and easing yields sustain the bounce into next week, with Nvidia earnings looming.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, with VIX at 15.5 — VIX moved from 15.20 to 16.03, still contained but no longer as complacent as the previous outlook. Bonds, not stocks, are driving the defensive tilt today.

Conviction: 49.9/100 Across 1,422 scored names, average conviction sits at 49.9 with only 4.0% in high-conviction territory — a neutral, split tape rather than a broad "buy" or "sell" signal from the model.

On the calendar today S&P Global's flash Manufacturing/Services PMI lands at 9:45am ET, alongside a Reuters/BLS-referenced release cited by desks near 10am ET. No major single-name earnings are scheduled. Canada's tariff postponement is set to expire end of day, August 21, making the trade deadline itself a scheduled event.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were rising Friday following a sharp sell-off, as Treasury's efforts to bolster bond buybacks failed to reassure investors, after the Treasury Secretary said Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buybacks. Nasdaq-100 futures were leading at +0.5% ahead of the S&P 500, while the 10-year climbed toward 4.71%. Thursday's session saw disappointing earnings from Walmart weigh on stocks, with the retailer reporting its slowest quarterly sales growth in more than six years. WTI trades near $87.

What to watch 1) Whether the Canada tariff pause is extended or the 50% duty takes effect Saturday. 2) PMI internals and long-bond yields (30Y near 5.25%) — a break higher could pressure equities. 3) Breadth: decliners led 1.92-to-1 with light volume Thursday, worth confirming or reversing today.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 20, 2026

The model portfolio slipped -0.52% today, outpacing SPY's -0.90% decline by 38bps — modest outperformance in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to a RISK_OFF regime overnight, and conviction sat at a soft 49.8 (just 3.9% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction"), reflecting a market pricing new tariff friction and shaky rates. The real-world catalyst was the S&P 500 extended this week's drop, with Walmart Inc. sinking 9.7% on disappointing sales, dragging the Dow down nearly 1.3%. QNTM's 50-name model carries no retail mega-cap concentration comparable to the S&P's cap-weighting, so it avoided the brunt of that single-name shock — a diversification effect rather than a specific bet against Walmart. Separately, oil settled near $88 as Trump's threat to crush the Iranian economy clouded peace prospects, while thirty-year yields climbed even as Bessent flagged a bigger buyback, keeping energy and rate-sensitive names volatile.

Market recap: The Dow fell 1.3%, or nearly 700 points, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 1% after all three indexes had rallied Wednesday. VIX ticked up to ~16 as yields reversed a brief Treasury-buyback-driven rally.

What's next: Watch Friday's Philly Fed follow-through and any headlines on the tentative U.S.-Canada tariff framework for direction into next week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by broad tariff headlines and war escalation risk. One-line read: elevated geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty is capping risk appetite even as realized volatility stays contained (VIX ~15.9).

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral reading (1,422 stocks scored; only 3.9% flagged high-conviction) implies the model sees a balanced, low-differentiation tape — few standout long or short signals today, consistent with a wait-and-see market.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am ET) and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for July (10am ET) are the main data points. Earnings are expected from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase, and Ross Stores. Walmart reports its fiscal Q2 results before the open.

Overnight & premarket

Futures tracking US equities were mixed, holding losses from the previous session on more pressure from elevated bond yields, with Nasdaq 100 futures down while Oracle, AMD, Micron and Marvell were lower. Asian equities saw sharper declines Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei plunging 2.5% and the Kospi losing more than 1%. Crude remains elevated near $87-88/bbl amid ongoing Iran-related supply concerns.

What to watch 1) Walmart's guidance reaction, a bellwether for consumer health. 2) Long-end Treasury yields — near multi-year highs — and their pull on rate-sensitive tech/chips. 3) Any fresh tariff or Middle East headlines given the active RISK_OFF flags.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Day Wrap — August 19, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio slipped -0.31% today while SPY edged up +0.19%, a roughly 50bp gap on a session where the tape's gains were narrow and defensive.

What drove it: Gains were broad on most sectors, with software application and hyperscalers mostly trading higher, and Apple, Salesforce, and Tesla gained 1%. But the real lift came from names outside typical high-conviction screens: retail stocks gained after TJX, Target, and Lowe's all reported second-quarter earnings, and Moderna stock prices doubled while Merck surged 10% after a trial on their joint vaccine cut recurrence in melanoma. Merck led Dow gains (+10.20%), while Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were among the laggards. With QNTM's universe averaging a middling 50.1 conviction score and only 4.1% of ~1,422 names scoring high-conviction, the model's 50-stock sleeve had limited exposure to the healthcare/vaccine surprise and retail-earnings pop that carried the index — a diversification-vs-concentration mismatch rather than a broad market call being wrong.

Market recap: Most shares in the S&P 500 rose, though chipmakers dropped once again, keeping the Nasdaq soft even as the broader tape firmed. Backdrop stayed tense: tariff and Middle East headlines kept a bid under oil (WTI ~$84) while VIX held low near 15, and 30-year yields hovered near multi-decade highs after Tuesday's spike.

What's next: Watch whether healthcare/retail leadership broadens or fades, and whether easing Treasury-yield pressure lets semis stabilize — both would matter for the model's next rebalance. This is research, not a recommendation.

Market Regime: Risk-Off QNTM's regime engine reads Risk-Off, matching the tape: the long summer rally ran into headwinds this week as the 60-day ceasefire ended without a resolution and bond yields and oil climbed globally, with tech, especially chips, falling early. Defensive positioning looks warranted into the open.

Conviction: 49.8/100 A near-neutral reading with only 3.3% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction" — the model finds few names with a clear edge and leans cautious, consistent with the broad-tariff macro flag in today's data.

On the calendar today

FOMC minutes and expected earnings from Analog Devices, TJX Companies, Lowe's, Target, and Estee Lauder. Investors are waiting for direction on the Fed's trajectory following its suspension of guidance.

Overnight & premarket

Asian markets plunged as South Korea's KOSPI tumbled over 5% and SK Hynix and Samsung suffered steep losses amid escalating US-Iran tensions that pushed Brent above $91 a barrel after Trump ruled out talks with Iran. S&P 500 futures fell 0.18%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.37%, Dow futures slipped 0.11%, and Russell 2000 futures were down 0.19%. SK Hynix depositary receipts climbed 3.9% on a $29 billion buyback; Mercury Systems dropped 10.76% after mixed results, missing on EPS.

What to watch 1. FOMC minutes for hints on the rate path amid the Fed's paused guidance. 2. Oil/yield follow-through given the VIX continuing to climb from last week's 2026 lows, up another 3.75% — a hedging-demand signal. 3. Retail earnings (Target, TJX, Lowe's) as a consumer-health gauge against tariff and rate headwinds.

*Educational research, not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 18, 2026

The QNTml model portfolio (50 holdings) fell 0.31% today, well ahead of SPY's 0.74% decline — a rare day where staying lighter in mega-cap tech and semis paid off.

What drove it: Markets took a real-world hit as oil ticked higher as prospects for a resolution of the US-Iran war receded, with WTI rising toward $85 a barrel. That fed a broad "risk-off" rotation: a selloff in chipmakers sent stocks lower, with growing anxiety about inflation and rising government debt keeping bond yields elevated — the semiconductor gauge fell 5.5% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.7%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 Energy sector climbed as much as 1.8% as investors bet the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz persists. QNTM's model was underweight the chip/AI names that led losses and held energy exposure that benefited from the same headline risk — explaining the gap versus SPY, which carries heavier index-level tech weight. Conviction sits at 49.8 (near-neutral) across 1,422 names scored, with only 3.0% flagged high-conviction — consistent with today's RISK_OFF regime read.

Market recap: All three benchmark indexes ended in the red — the Dow lost 272.63 points to 53,459.78, the Nasdaq fell 84.25 points to 26,644.91, and the S&P 500 slid 40.7 points to 7,745.06, with retail and communications stocks dragging as concerns around AI-stock valuations and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.

What's next: Watch oil and Iran headlines — sustained escalation risk keeps the RISK_OFF regime in place and energy/tech divergence in focus. This is research, not investment advice.

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, though that sits awkwardly against a bond-yield/oil-driven futures selloff overnight — worth watching whether the model's calmer signal (VIX 15.7) or the headline risk wins out today.

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral score with only 3.2% of the 1,421-name universe in high-conviction territory — breadth is thin, meaning today's tape is more headline-driven than fundamentals-driven.

On the calendar today

Home Depot reports before the market opens Tuesday, August 18. The Federal Reserve releases July industrial production and capacity utilization data, after industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in June. FOMC minutes and more retail earnings (Target, Lowe's) land Wednesday, not today.

Overnight & premarket

US stock-index futures fell as rising bond yields and a spike in oil prices unnerved investors, with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.5%. Single-name action: Microsoft stock fell 3% as AI chip doubts collided with its $190 billion bet, while Micron reclaimed $1,000 and SanDisk jumped 9% on an Apple-China move and Elon Musk's memory warning.

What to watch 1. Home Depot's read on housing-sensitive consumer spending after weak July retail sales. 2. Any Iran-conflict headline shift — yields/oil have been the main swing factor. 3. Whether thin conviction breadth (3.2% high-conviction) holds up if volatility ticks higher.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Daily Wrap — Monday, August 17, 2026

The QNTM model portemented +0.06% today while SPY slipped -0.47% — a ~53bp relative gap in a mildly bullish regime (conviction 50.0 across 1,422 names, only 2.8% flagged high-conviction).

What drove it: The divergence traces to sector positioning. The key bullish driver is resilient risk appetite and rotation into cyclicals/energy, as IWM (+0.45%), XLE (+1.39%), and XLU (+0.61%) outperformed while the dollar and volatility remained contained. QNTM's 50-name model carried tilts toward energy and utilities, insulating it from the mega-cap weakness that dragged the benchmark. The Dow fell roughly 158 points, driven by McDonald's (-1.81%), UnitedHealth (-1.63%) and Microsoft (-1.09%) — names the model was light on. Semiconductor softness also lingered after Friday's Applied Materials plunge, per Zacks reporting.

Broader tape: All three benchmark indexes ended in the red, with the Dow losing 107.58 points, or 0.2%, to close at 53,732.41. VIX ticked up to ~15.2 but remains historically low. Backdrop included the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rising to 35 in August from 34 in July, beating consensus, alongside firm 10-year yields near 4.70%. Oil stayed elevated near $84 WTI amid ongoing Mideast tensions despite hopes for de-escalation.

What's next: Retail earnings (Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's) and Wednesday's FOMC minutes headline the week.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, consistent with a VIX near 14.9 — low by historical standards — signaling calm, momentum-friendly conditions rather than defensive positioning.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Conviction sits at the midpoint across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.2% flagged high-conviction. That's a neutral, low-breadth reading — the model sees no broad-based edge in either direction today.

On the calendar today

The Empire State Index for August is due at 8:30 a.m., followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. FOMC minutes from the July 28–29 meeting are scheduled for release Wednesday, and Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart are among the companies reporting earnings this week.

Overnight & premarket

Technology stocks lifted global equities after stellar revenue growth at Anthropic bolstered views on sustained AI spending; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, and storage/semiconductor names like Sandisk and Micron rallied premarket. The dollar touched a three-month low. Brent closed in on $90 a barrel as fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah dealt a setback to regional de-escalation efforts.

What to watch 1) Whether oil's climb toward $90 on Mideast tensions pressures energy-sensitive sectors despite QNTM's "de-escalation" macro tag. 2) Retail earnings (HD, TGT, WMT) as a read on consumer health after Friday's pullback tied partly to a surprise drop in July retail sales. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes and the approaching Jackson Hole symposium.

*Research/education only — not investment advice.*

QNTM Week Wrap — Week ending Aug 14, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +3.12% this week versus +0.43% for SPY, a wide margin over a week where the index still notched its third straight weekly gain. The S&P 500 scaled to a fresh record on Thursday, topping 7,800 for the first time, posting an all-time closing high of 7,798.99, before stocks fell Friday amid deteriorating consumer sentiment.

Drivers: Momentum was led by energy, up nearly 6% week to date, with healthcare and financials also outperforming, up more than 1% each — a backdrop that favored QNTM's cyclical/value tilt. Single-name catalysts consistent with the model's factors included Nu Holdings surging nearly 12% on a record quarterly profit and Reddit jumping 10.4% on its upcoming S&P 500 inclusion, while laggards like Globant sinking 12.6% on a disappointing quarterly report illustrate where quality/sentiment signals diverged.

Macro: Regime stayed "mildly bullish," VIX near 14.25. Cooling inflation data reinforced bets the Fed will hold rates in September, while a disinflation trend from lower tariff costs and oil eventually flowing from the Strait of Hormuz supported both macro tags — tariff easing and war de-escalation — in QNTM's model this week.

Next week: Watch the July FOMC minutes on Wednesday, ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month.

QNTM Day Wrap — August 14, 2026

The model portfolio edged up +0.08% while SPY fell -0.22%, a ~30bp outperformance day. Broad market action was choppy: the S&P 500 fell 0.19% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.43%, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.43%, and VIX eased 1.16% to 14.46. The pullback followed a fresh S&P record above 7,800 the prior session, with July retail sales showing a decline of -0.6%, its worst reading in over a year, cooling risk appetite even as producer inflation softened to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, below the 4.9% estimate.

QNTM's 50-name book benefited from breadth away from mega-cap tech, echoing the day's small/mid-cap resilience. Single-name dispersion was sharp: Nu Holdings surged nearly 12% on a record quarter with net income above $1 billion, and Reddit jumped 10.4% on its upcoming S&P 500 inclusion — names consistent with QNTM's momentum/sentiment factors. On the drag side, Globant sank 12.6% after a disappointing quarter and Range Resources tumbled 7.3% on weak natural gas prices, pressuring energy/services exposure amid the day's tariff-broad tag (new drone-sector tariffs) and a still-hawkish Fed tone.

Conviction sat at a modest 50.3, with only 3.6% of 1,422 names high-conviction — reflecting genuine crosscurrents, not consensus. Next up: consumer sentiment data and the path toward the September Fed decision. Research/education only — not investment advice.