Thursday, July 9, 2026

Market Regime: NEUTRAL QNTM's overlay reads NEUTRAL — consistent with a tape torn between fresh geopolitical risk and a still-resilient AI/tech bid.

Conviction: 54.4/100 A mid-range score with 1000 names scored and 16% flagged high-conviction — modestly constructive but not a broad "risk-on" signal; leadership remains narrow.

On the calendar today Data: weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at 8:30 AM ET, plus existing home sales at 10:00 AM ET . Earnings before the open include PepsiCo (PEP) , which posted Q2 core EPS of $2.20 vs. consensus $2.19, with revenue up 6.4% y/y to $24.18B, and backed its full-year outlook . Treasury sells $22B in 30-year notes at 1:00 PM ET .

Overnight & premarket Futures were mixed-to-firmer as stock futures were mixed while investors weighed the latest developments in the Middle East, after the U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iran and Tehran responded by targeting Gulf countries . Polymarket traders implied an 85% probability of a higher S&P open, even as the Middle East escalation drove a sharp rally in crude and revived inflation concerns . June Fed minutes showed policymakers still divided on the rate path . Chipmakers were volatile after a rough stretch, while SK Hynix's US offering priced with demand near seven times available shares .

What to watch 1) Oil/crude follow-through on Iran headlines. 2) Jobless claims vs. Fed-minutes-driven rate expectations. 3) Semiconductor stabilization after recent SOX weakness.

Research/education only — not investment advice.