Monday, July 13, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reflects rising geopolitical and inflation risk; the model is favoring defense over offense heading into a heavy news week.

Conviction: 54.1/100 With Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures down 0.89% and 0.23% respectively at 5:38 a.m. ET , a conviction score just above the midpoint and only 16% of stocks in high-conviction territory suggests the model sees a mixed, uncertain setup rather than a broad tailwind or headwind.

On the calendar today Light on data — 2:00 p.m. ET brings the Treasury Budget for June, with Fastenal reporting earnings . The bigger catalysts loom later this week: Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday and Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, and Q2 earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo reporting Tuesday . June CPI is expected to slow below 4% from May's three-year high of 4.2%, while core CPI is forecast to hold at 2.9%, the highest since last September .

Overnight & premarket

The US and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes over the weekend amid persistent tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz . Oil rose on shipping-disruption concerns, with WTI up 1.67% to $72.85 and Brent near $77.38 . Memory stocks fell sharply after SK Hynix plunged, dragging the Kospi down 9% and triggering a market-wide trading halt . The Nikkei dropped 1.92% to 67,242 while Europe's DAX and FTSE were roughly flat .

What to watch 1) Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and its effect on oil/energy stocks. 2) Positioning ahead of Tuesday's bank earnings and CPI print. 3) Follow-through in semiconductor/memory names after the Korea-driven selloff.

Research/education only — not investment advice.