Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay sits in RISK_OFF, flagging a hawkish Fed tone alongside tentative war de-escalation signals — a mixed backdrop where defensive positioning still dominates despite hopes for a Middle East cooling-off.

Conviction: 54.1/100 A reading just above the neutral midpoint across roughly 1,000 scored names, with only 15.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees selective opportunity, not broad-based strength.

On the calendar today

Economists expect consumer price inflation cooled in June; however, that has not deterred bond traders from increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its July 28-29 meeting. CPI lands at 8:30am ET. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10am ET , his first appearance before Congress. Earnings include Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures wavered as markets awaited the inflation report and monitored rising oil prices amid the renewed US-Iran war, with Dow futures slipping 0.3%, S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%. Oil futures jumped over 4%, topping $81/barrel, as US-Iran fighting stretched to a third day. AI chip stocks stayed under pressure, with newly listed SK Hynix shares dropping further.

What to watch 1. CPI surprise vs. cooling expectations, given hike odds are rising into July 28-29 FOMC. 2. Warsh's tone on rates during testimony — first public read on his policy stance. 3. Oil-driven volatility from Strait of Hormuz strikes; bank earnings guidance on rate/macro uncertainty.