Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, and that lines up with the tape: markets are digesting fresh tariff actions and an escalating Middle East conflict even as VIX sits a relatively calm 17.72.

Conviction: 49.0/100 A near-50 composite with only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe in high-conviction territory signals a broadly neutral, low-signal environment — the model isn't finding many stocks with strong multi-factor alignment right now.

On the calendar today No FOMC meeting today, but Fed-funds futures are pricing an 83.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged at July's meeting (later this month). Earnings flow is heavy, including Equifax, 3M, Atlassian, CrowdStrike, Waste Management, and Danaher, with markets also bracing for the coming wave of Big Tech and chip results.

Overnight & premarket

Futures rose as investors braced for earnings amid a chip-stock revival, with fresh US tariffs on Canada and Middle East hostilities also in focus; Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1.3%. Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, and U.S. forces carried out new strikes on Iranian targets . Asian markets closed mixed — Hong Kong and India fell while China, Australia, South Korea, and Japan rose. WTI eased near $82, while gold rose about 1.5% toward $4,067/oz.

What to watch 1) Middle East headlines and oil-price swings given the Houthi blockade threat. 2) Semiconductor/AI names into this week's Big Tech earnings wave. 3) Tariff-related sector reaction, especially industrials and materials.

Research/education only — not investment advice.