Thursday, July 23, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flipped to Risk-Off, consistent with a VIX near 18 and crude near $91 WTI. One-line read: with oil spiking on war-escalation headlines, the model is favoring defense over offense today.

Conviction: 48.8/100 Mean composite sits at 48.8 across 1,423 names scored, with only 1.8% screening as high-conviction — a neutral-to-cautious tape where the model finds few names with a clean, multi-pillar edge.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims were due at 8:30am ET, with consensus at 212K versus a prior 208K . It's otherwise a light macro day — the calendar is relatively light ahead of the next Fed meeting, which runs July 28-29 . Earnings are heavy, with 183 companies reporting Thursday , following Tesla and Alphabet's after-hours reports Wednesday.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock futures fell, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures each sliding roughly 0.4%, pressured by results from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM along with ongoing geopolitical unrest. Tesla shares fell 5.9% to $352.10 in premarket after a Q2 profit miss, with revenue up 26% to $28.24B but operating income down 57%. Crude jumped after reports of attacks on tankers off Saudi Arabia and renewed U.S. threats to escalate strikes against Iran . Asia was firmer overnight as the Kospi rose 2.8% and Samsung and SK Hynix each gained more than 3% on AI-spending optimism.

What to watch 1) Oil's trajectory as Middle East tensions evolve intraday. 2) Reaction in AI/chip and energy names to overnight moves. 3) Broader earnings tape given ~180 reports today, which could offset or extend the Alphabet/Tesla-driven tone.

Educational research, not investment advice.