Monday, July 27, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX at 17.66 and WTI near $83.45. New tariffs took effect just after midnight ET Friday on dozens of countries over alleged forced-labor violations , keeping trade policy squarely in the "risk-off" bucket even as broader risk appetite firms up this morning.

Conviction: 48.5/100 A near-neutral reading with only 1.6% of the 1,423-stock universe in high-conviction territory — the model sees a mixed, low-clarity setup rather than a broad tailwind or headwind for individual names today.

On the calendar today No major U.S. data due Monday, but this is one of the busiest periods of the second-quarter earnings season, with Microsoft and Meta reporting on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday, plus Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford, and PayPal . The FOMC meets Wednesday, with policymakers widely expected to hold rates steady; investors will watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, plus the advance Q2 GDP estimate, June PCE inflation, and durable goods orders later this week.

Overnight & premarket

Futures surged Monday morning as oil sank, with Dow futures up 1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.9%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up roughly 1.4% after a choppy prior week . Sentiment got a lift as the US and Iran paused fighting over the weekend, and oil prices tumbled over 7% .

What to watch 1) Tariff headlines/retaliation from trading partners on the new forced-labor duties. 2) Wednesday's Fed decision and Warsh's tone. 3) Big Tech earnings starting midweek, given their index weight.

Research/education only — not investment advice.