Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads Risk-Off, consistent with a session where geopolitical shock and rate uncertainty are competing with still-firm equity futures — a "climb a wall of worry" setup rather than outright capitulation.

Conviction: 49.4/100 Conviction sits almost exactly at the midpoint of the model's 0-100 scale, with only 2.5% of the ~1,423-name scored universe registering high conviction. That's a neutral-to-cautious signal: the model finds few names with a clean, multi-pillar edge today, and breadth of strong setups is thin.

On the calendar today The Fed's rate decision lands at 2:00 p.m. ET, with the market assigning about a 30% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase ; no updated economic projections accompany this meeting. Earnings are heavy after the close: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and Starbucks report, alongside Procter & Gamble and General Dynamics before the bell.

Overnight & premarket

Oil surged as fresh fighting erupted in the Middle East, with Brent climbing more than 4% to near $88 a barrel after U.S. oil futures rose late Tuesday after Central Command said American forces intercepted an attack from Iran, with WTI last up 4.4% at $82.73 . Jordan's military intercepted five missiles from Iran, and joint US-Saudi strikes hit Iran-allied forces in Iraq, with at least 20 reported killed . Despite that, S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat after the latest chip selloff . In single names, Ford surged nearly 4% after-hours on an earnings beat and raised outlook , while Visa fell more than 1% on weaker guidance .

What to watch 1) The 2 p.m. Fed decision/press conference given real odds priced for a hike amid oil-driven inflation risk. 2) Whether Middle East escalation further pressures crude and energy-sensitive sectors. 3) After-hours Mega-cap tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta) for read-through on AI capex following the chipmaker correction scare.

Research/education only — not investment advice.