Thursday, July 30, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads Risk-Off, consistent with the war-escalation flag in today's model — a backdrop where credit and volatility inputs are being weighted more heavily than growth momentum.

Conviction: 49.2/100 A near-neutral reading (3.1% of the 1,423-name universe screening "high conviction") signals the model sees more idiosyncratic risk than broad directional edge right now — no strong tilt long or short across the scored universe.

On the calendar today

Q2 GDP first estimate, June PCE prices, June core PCE prices, and June personal spending and income are due, alongside earnings from Mastercard, Bristol-Myers, Altria, Southern, Sanofi, and Stryker . Weekly jobless claims and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge also land today . Amazon and Apple report after the close .

Overnight & premarket

The Fed left rates unchanged Wednesday, but Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year climbing above 5.2%, its highest since 2007 . Microsoft surged nearly 10% premarket after beating estimates on Azure strength , while Meta fell 8.4% after missing EPS estimates and guiding Q3 revenue below analyst expectations . Dow futures rose 0.2%, S&P futures 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% after Wednesday's correction in chips .

What to watch 1) PCE inflation vs. Fed's hold stance amid three hawkish dissents (per market reports). 2) Oil/yield reaction to renewed Iran strikes feeding the Risk-Off regime. 3) Apple/Amazon earnings after the bell — read-through for mega-cap breadth.

Research/education only — not investment advice.