Friday, July 31, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay stays defensive even as equities rally — a reminder that price momentum and geopolitical risk aren't the same thing.

Conviction: 49.2/100 A near-neutral average with only 2.1% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction" — QNTM's pillars see broad-based uncertainty, not a clear directional signal.

On the calendar today Markets are still digesting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's July 28-29 FOMC meeting , where the Fed left interest rates unchanged . Weekly jobless claims data, personal income and spending, and the PCE and core PCE inflation indexes are due Thursday-Friday — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Big Tech earnings dominate: Amazon shares surged over 11% in premarket after beating Wall Street's Q2 earnings , while Apple shares fell after results failed to meet lofty expectations, and Microsoft rallied over 15% following its own report .

Overnight & premarket

Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1% after South Korea's KOSPI jumped 14% overnight, triggering trading halts ; Dow futures rose 0.5% and S&P 500 futures moved up 0.3% . Gold fell 1.21% to $4,110.10/oz while WTI crude rose 0.77% to $84.23/barrel .

What to watch 1) Follow-through (or fade) in AI-capex names after this week's earnings swings; 2) any fresh Iran-US headlines given the "war escalation" flag and oil's sensitivity to it; 3) today's PCE print for clues on the Fed's next move.