Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF even as headline indices sit near record highs — a signal that the model is pricing geopolitical tail risk (Middle East conflict) more heavily than the tape's current momentum.

Conviction: 49.0/100 A near-neutral composite with just 2.3% of the 1,423-name universe scoring high conviction — the model sees a market that's priced for good news (earnings) while flagging headline risk, not a broad "all clear."

On the calendar today Big tech earnings dominate: Palantir jumped 16% in premarket trading after raising its forecasts, with SpaceX and Advanced Micro Devices due to report today . Attention also turns to results from Caterpillar, Merck and McDonald's . No major data prints today, but this week's data centers on the labor market, with all eyes on Friday's July jobs report .

Overnight & premarket

US stocks hovered near a record as investors turned focus to earnings after weeks of choppy trading spurred by tech-valuation concerns and the Middle East conflict . Monday, the Nasdaq surged 2.13%, S&P and Dow advanced 1.48% and 1.32%, with Amazon soaring 4.6% past a $3 trillion cap, alongside Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet and Tesla . Oil was climbing on fresh reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz .

What to watch 1) Whether oil's bounce off Hormuz headlines re-escalates into broader risk-off. 2) AMD and SpaceX earnings after the close — read-throughs for AI capex. 3) Friday's jobs report as the next catalyst for rate expectations.

Research/education only — not investment advice.