Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay is flagged RISK_OFF, tied to an active "war_escalation" macro event. That's a notable contrast with the tape's mood — a reminder that the model is pricing geopolitical tail risk even as headline sentiment looks upbeat.

Conviction: 50.2/100 A mid-point score with only 3.0% of the 1,423 names scored landing in high-conviction territory. Breadth is thin — the model isn't broadly bullish even where prices are near records.

On the calendar today Disney reports before the open (materials ~6:30am ET, call 8:30am ET) and Shopify also reports before the bell with an 8:30am ET call. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Disney, Shopify, Uber and AppLovin report, with Eli Lilly the largest name in focus ; Sandisk reports after the close . Friday brings the July nonfarm payrolls report.

Overnight & premarket

Stocks extended a four-day rally as earnings pointed to a strong backdrop, while hopes rose for a US-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz; S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% . Arista Networks jumped as much as 14% on a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast , while SpaceX shares tumbled 11% premarket on concerns over heavy AI-related capex despite a strong earnings beat .

What to watch 1) Whether Qatar-mediated Iran talks hold — drafts of a potential US-Iran agreement are circulating even as Iran warns it won't allow shipments through the Strait of Hormuz outside its own route . 2) Reaction to Disney/Shopify earnings for consumer/e-commerce read-through. 3) Whether thin 3% high-conviction breadth foreshadows fragility into Friday's jobs data.