Friday, August 7, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF into today's open. The pullback came as a rebound in oil prices reignited concerns that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. A low VIX near 15 alongside a defensive regime flag is a mismatch worth watching — the model may be pricing tariff and geopolitical tail risk that options markets aren't yet.

Conviction: 50.0/100 A neutral reading, with only 2.8% of the ~1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a thin, undecided tape — the model isn't finding many stocks with aligned momentum, quality, volume, value, and sentiment signals right now.

On the calendar today The headline event is the July jobs report at 8:30am ET. FactSet estimates total nonfarm payrolls to rise by 97,500 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2% , which would mark an acceleration from June's gain of 57,000 jobs . CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 54.7% likelihood of the Fed hiking rates at its September meeting , so payrolls could swing that odds quickly.

Overnight & premarket

U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday, with the Dow slipping while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose , following Thursday's 0.18% slip to close at 7,709.96 . Single-name moves are extreme: Atlassian surged 30.25% premarket on better-than-expected results , while Trade Desk plunged 27.45% on a weak quarter and soft guidance ; Airbnb jumped over 8% and Cloudflare soared 16% on strong outlooks , and Western Digital sank 13% and Sandisk lost 6.8% on disappointing results .

What to watch 1. Payrolls reaction — a beat above ~100k could revive September hike odds and pressure risk assets. 2. Strait of Hormuz talks — Iran and Oman are continuing negotiations on a framework for the strait , tying to the "war_deescalation" flag; any breakdown could spike oil (WTI ~$77) and volatility. 3. Earnings dispersion — with tariff-related and mega-cap tech reactions swinging 15-30% on single names, sector rotation could dominate over index-level moves.

Research/education only — not investment advice.