Monday, August 10, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by broad tariff actions and Middle East war escalation — yet the VIX sits at a calm 15.47, so the model is pricing tail risk that isn't (yet) showing up in realized volatility.

Conviction: 50.0/100 A neutral reading with only 3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — the model sees a market with no clear edge, consistent with a wait-and-see tape ahead of this week's inflation data.

On the calendar today No major Fed speakers scheduled. Earnings before the open include monday.com (8:30am call) monday.com will report second-quarter 2026 results Monday, August 10, with a call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Axsome Therapeutics and Bitdeer also report AM; Archer Aviation, Hims & Hers, Plug Power, Rocket Lab and Quantum Computing report after the close. Tomorrow brings tech and communications earnings alongside closely watched US CPI data, which will frame the inflation trend behind the recent Treasury yield drop.

Overnight & premarket

The S&P 500 climbed 0.62%, the Dow edged up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.19% in the prior session after July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, reducing concern over potential Fed rate hikes. Oil is firmer: Brent crude futures were up 1.4% at $84.70 a barrel, with WTI up 1.4% near $79.31. London shares were steady. Tesla remains down roughly 30-35% from its recent peak.

What to watch 1) Strait of Hormuz talks — Iran says the strait stays shut until six conditions are met, including ending the war against Iran and its allies.

2) Tuesday's CPI print and its read-through for Fed policy. 3) Heavy AI/chip earnings this week (AMAT, SMCI, CRWV, RKLB) as a sentiment gauge after July's tech unwind.

Research & education only — not investment advice.