Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Market Regime: NEUTRAL. QNTM's macro overlay shows no strong directional signal, consistent with low VIX (15.4) and a market that's grinding sideways near highs rather than trending.

Conviction: 49.5/100, with just 2.7% of the 1,422-name universe in high-conviction territory. A reading this close to the midpoint signals a broad lack of consensus across the five pillars — the model sees a stock-picker's market, not a clear risk-on or risk-off setup.

On the calendar today: No major scheduled Fed speeches or data releases this morning, but markets are bracing for key July consumer prices (CPI) inflation data Wednesday morning (and PPI on Thursday), which could be key in determining the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate path . Earnings today include Cardinal Health (CAH), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) , both CRWV and SMCI reporting after the bell.

Overnight & premarket: Futures are muted — stock futures were rising and oil prices were sharply higher as investors weighed the latest developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict . Brent crude extends its latest rally approaching $90 per barrel while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield tops 4.72% , with WTI near $82.27 in QNTM's feed. Trump demanded Monday that Iran compensate victims' families and Middle Eastern countries after Tehran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz without compensation .

What to watch: 1. Geopolitical oil-price risk from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz standoff feeding into yields and rate expectations. 2. CRWV and SMCI earnings after the close — both carry large implied option moves. 3. Positioning ahead of Wednesday's CPI print, which markets see as the next major catalyst for Fed rate-path expectations.