Friday, August 14, 2026

Market Regime: QNTM's model reads MILDLY BULLISH for today's session, consistent with a VIX near 14.6 — low realized fear even as macro flags (broad tariffs, war escalation) stay lit in the background.

Conviction: Composite conviction sits at 50.2/100 across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.9% in high-conviction territory. That's a neutral, narrow reading — the model sees a market near record highs but without broad-based signal strength underneath.

On the calendar today: No major earnings scheduled. With no major reports on the calendar for Friday, attention is beginning to turn to a series of retail earnings next week, including from Target and Walmart, before Nvidia's highly anticipated report the week after on Aug. 26. Data due: Retail Sales (July, 8:30am ET), Business Inventories (10am), and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10am).

Overnight & premarket: US stock futures traded roughly flat Friday after the S&P 500 notched a record high amid easing Fed rate-hike fears and cooler-than-expected inflation data. A rally in Asian stocks pointed to a positive open, with South Korea's KOSPI climbing over 2.4% and Japan's Nikkei gaining 0.6%. Reddit shares soared 12.4% in premarket trading ahead of joining the S&P 500.

What to watch: 1. Retail sales — a soft print could revive rate-cut chatter after this week's cooler CPI. 2. Energy/tariff crosscurrents: the Trump administration is imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and their components , while Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep oil near $82. 3. Index-rebalancing flows around Reddit's S&P 500 addition.

Research/education only — not investment advice.