Monday, August 17, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, consistent with a VIX near 14.9 — low by historical standards — signaling calm, momentum-friendly conditions rather than defensive positioning.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Conviction sits at the midpoint across 1,422 scored names, with only 3.2% flagged high-conviction. That's a neutral, low-breadth reading — the model sees no broad-based edge in either direction today.

On the calendar today

The Empire State Index for August is due at 8:30 a.m., followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. FOMC minutes from the July 28–29 meeting are scheduled for release Wednesday , and Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart are among the companies reporting earnings this week .

Overnight & premarket

Technology stocks lifted global equities after stellar revenue growth at Anthropic bolstered views on sustained AI spending; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5% while S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, and storage/semiconductor names like Sandisk and Micron rallied premarket. The dollar touched a three-month low. Brent closed in on $90 a barrel as fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah dealt a setback to regional de-escalation efforts.

What to watch 1) Whether oil's climb toward $90 on Mideast tensions pressures energy-sensitive sectors despite QNTM's "de-escalation" macro tag. 2) Retail earnings (HD, TGT, WMT) as a read on consumer health after Friday's pullback tied partly to a surprise drop in July retail sales . 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes and the approaching Jackson Hole symposium.

Research/education only — not investment advice.