Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, though that sits awkwardly against a bond-yield/oil-driven futures selloff overnight — worth watching whether the model's calmer signal (VIX 15.7) or the headline risk wins out today.

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral score with only 3.2% of the 1,421-name universe in high-conviction territory — breadth is thin, meaning today's tape is more headline-driven than fundamentals-driven.

On the calendar today

Home Depot reports before the market opens Tuesday, August 18 . The Federal Reserve releases July industrial production and capacity utilization data, after industrial production rose 0.1% month-over-month in June . FOMC minutes and more retail earnings (Target, Lowe's) land Wednesday, not today.

Overnight & premarket

US stock-index futures fell as rising bond yields and a spike in oil prices unnerved investors, with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% and S&P 500 futures down 0.5% . Single-name action: Microsoft stock fell 3% as AI chip doubts collided with its $190 billion bet , while Micron reclaimed $1,000 and SanDisk jumped 9% on an Apple-China move and Elon Musk's memory warning .

What to watch 1. Home Depot's read on housing-sensitive consumer spending after weak July retail sales. 2. Any Iran-conflict headline shift — yields/oil have been the main swing factor. 3. Whether thin conviction breadth (3.2% high-conviction) holds up if volatility ticks higher.

Research/education only — not investment advice.