Thursday, August 20, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, driven by broad tariff headlines and war escalation risk. One-line read: elevated geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty is capping risk appetite even as realized volatility stays contained (VIX ~15.9).

Conviction: 50.1/100 A near-neutral reading (1,422 stocks scored; only 3.9% flagged high-conviction) implies the model sees a balanced, low-differentiation tape — few standout long or short signals today, consistent with a wait-and-see market.

On the calendar today Weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am ET) and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for July (10am ET) are the main data points. Earnings are expected from Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, NetEase, and Ross Stores. Walmart reports its fiscal Q2 results before the open.

Overnight & premarket

Futures tracking US equities were mixed, holding losses from the previous session on more pressure from elevated bond yields, with Nasdaq 100 futures down while Oracle, AMD, Micron and Marvell were lower. Asian equities saw sharper declines Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei plunging 2.5% and the Kospi losing more than 1%. Crude remains elevated near $87-88/bbl amid ongoing Iran-related supply concerns.

What to watch 1) Walmart's guidance reaction, a bellwether for consumer health. 2) Long-end Treasury yields — near multi-year highs — and their pull on rate-sensitive tech/chips. 3) Any fresh tariff or Middle East headlines given the active RISK_OFF flags.

Educational research, not investment advice.