Friday, August 21, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, with VIX at 15.5 — VIX moved from 15.20 to 16.03, still contained but no longer as complacent as the previous outlook . Bonds, not stocks, are driving the defensive tilt today.

Conviction: 49.9/100 Across 1,422 scored names, average conviction sits at 49.9 with only 4.0% in high-conviction territory — a neutral, split tape rather than a broad "buy" or "sell" signal from the model.

On the calendar today S&P Global's flash Manufacturing/Services PMI lands at 9:45am ET, alongside a Reuters/BLS-referenced release cited by desks near 10am ET. No major single-name earnings are scheduled. Canada's tariff postponement is set to expire end of day, August 21 , making the trade deadline itself a scheduled event.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures were rising Friday following a sharp sell-off, as Treasury's efforts to bolster bond buybacks failed to reassure investors, after the Treasury Secretary said Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buybacks . Nasdaq-100 futures were leading at +0.5% ahead of the S&P 500, while the 10-year climbed toward 4.71% . Thursday's session saw disappointing earnings from Walmart weigh on stocks, with the retailer reporting its slowest quarterly sales growth in more than six years . WTI trades near $87.

What to watch 1) Whether the Canada tariff pause is extended or the 50% duty takes effect Saturday. 2) PMI internals and long-bond yields (30Y near 5.25%) — a break higher could pressure equities. 3) Breadth: decliners led 1.92-to-1 with light volume Thursday, worth confirming or reversing today.

Research/education only — not investment advice.