Monday, August 24, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, flagging both broad tariff and war-escalation risk — consistent with a market bracing for policy and geopolitical headlines rather than chasing momentum.

Conviction: 50.1/100 Across 1,422 scored names, only 3.8% screen as high-conviction — a neutral, split-the-difference reading that suggests no broad edge on either side of the tape today.

On the calendar today

Monday data includes Mexican inflation and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, with Treasury Secretary Bessent among scheduled speakers; PDD and Xpeng report earnings. Bessent is expected to reveal details of sanctions plans against Iran later today. It's otherwise a quiet data day ahead of Wednesday's PCE report and Nvidia earnings, with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium starting later in the week.

Overnight & premarket

The 10-year Treasury yield is near a 20-month high of 4.74%. Futures were pressured by new US sanctions against Iran, failed US-Canada trade talks, and reciprocal tariff threats. Premarket movers include HOOD +13.70%, BABA -8.57%, and MRVL -5.57%. PDD reports Q2 results premarket today, with focus on consumer spending trends.

What to watch 1) Details and market reaction to the Iran sanctions announcement. 2) Whether elevated yields continue pressuring rate-sensitive and growth names. 3) Positioning ahead of Wednesday's PCE print and Nvidia's earnings, likely keeping volume light today.

Research/education only — not investment advice.