Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay flags RISK_OFF for today's session — a defensive posture despite calm volatility readings, reflecting lingering tariff and geopolitical crosscurrents rather than acute stress.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral composite across 1,421 scored names, with only 3.4% in high-conviction territory — the model sees a market waiting on catalysts rather than trending decisively either way.

On the calendar today The main event is the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, with economists expecting 3.3%, unchanged from the prior month . Also due: July personal income/spending, Q2 GDP second estimate, and July durable goods orders, alongside earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, Williams-Sonoma, CrowdStrike, Synopsys, Agilent, HP, and Okta . Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close .

Overnight & premarket

Futures were mixed ahead of the session as investors awaited Nvidia's results and the inflation data, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.20% and S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, while Dow futures were up 0.07% . Oil continued declining as war-widening concerns eased and Iran and Oman were reportedly close to a deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open . Intuit's guidance-driven selloff deepened in premarket trading .

What to watch 1) Core PCE reading vs. the 3.3% consensus and its rate-path implications. 2) Nvidia's after-hours print given its outsized index weight. 3) Follow-through on the Strait of Hormuz talks and oil's slide toward $80 WTI, consistent with QNTM's war-deescalation flag.

Research/education only — not investment advice.