Friday, August 28, 2026

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime engine reads MILDLY BULLISH — consistent with low volatility (VIX ~14.4) and a market grinding higher into a big Fed speech rather than bracing for a shock.

Conviction: 49.6/100 A near-neutral reading (3.7% of the 1,422-name universe scores "high conviction") — the model sees a fairly balanced tape, not a broad green light, as traders wait on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks before committing capital.

On the calendar today The headline event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's address at Jackson Hole, with traders looking for clarity on his economic outlook and strategy for bringing inflation back to target , expected around 10:00 a.m. ET. This caps a week where the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in slightly hotter than expected in July, ahead of Warsh's speech , and Friday brings revised consumer sentiment data.

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were little changed, leaving the index on course for a weekly advance, while Nasdaq 100 contracts gave back some of the gains sparked by Nvidia's blockbuster outlook. Movers: PayPal slumped 16% in premarket trading after Advent and Stripe abandoned their pursuit of the firm ; Marvell and Rubrik fell more than 7% in premarket trading , while Elastic held a roughly 20% gain on earnings.

What to watch 1) Warsh's tone on rates/inflation — any hawkish surprise could hit the low-VIX complacency. 2) Follow-through (or fade) in chip/software earnings reactions (MRVL, RBRK, ESTC, WDAY). 3) Oil (~$82.86 WTI) and tariff/geopolitical headlines given ongoing Iran de-escalation dynamics.

Research & education only — not investment advice.