Friday, September 4, 2026

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's overlay reads mildly bullish, consistent with a market drifting to fresh short-term highs even as tariff and Middle East headlines linger in the background.

Conviction: 48.9/100 A near-midpoint score across 1,422 names, with only 2.7% flagged high-conviction — breadth is thin even though the macro backdrop is constructive.

On the calendar today

The August 2026 US jobs report lands Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus around a rebound after nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against a Dow Jones consensus of +83,000 . With rates at 3.50%–3.75% since December 2025, the question is whether the FOMC hikes on September 16; a weak report would reduce near-term hike odds . US stock and bond markets will be closed Monday, September 7, for Labor Day .

Overnight & premarket

S&P 500 futures were up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures edged up 0.5% ahead of the data. Oil pulled back from recent highs, with WTI falling 0.82% to $90.55 and Brent slipping to $95.04 . The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.818% this week, a level not seen since November 2023 , though it's eased on dovish Fed commentary.

What to watch 1) Payrolls reaction — a strong print could raise hike odds instead of the usual relief rally; 2) any further Iran-related oil swings; 3) whether low VIX (14.15) masks the market's narrow conviction breadth.