Friday, September 11, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF, with VIX near 17 and WTI crude at ~$99. Read: defensive positioning is warranted after a rough stretch — stocks finished lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday, pressured by rising oil prices and Treasury yields .

Conviction: 48.6/100 Conviction sits near the midpoint, with only 2.8% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction." That's a signal of broad-based indecision across the five pillars — not a bullish or bearish tilt, just thin support for strong ideas right now.

On the calendar today The main event is the August consumer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, a key gauge of inflation . Economists expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% in August from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 2.4% annually . This lands just days before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, making its potential impact especially important . Thursday's PPI already ran hot: August's producer price index rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% from a year earlier .

Overnight & premarket

Futures rose in premarket trading as investors braced for the inflation data, with Dow and S&P futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.6%, after the major indexes extended their losing streak to four days . Notable mover: Oracle (ORCL) shares popped over 5% in premarket trading on strong cloud computing growth in the latest quarter . Oil prices were easing in premarket trading, but Brent crude was still trading above $104 a barrel .

What to watch 1. Whether CPI confirms or undercuts the hot PPI print — a surprise could reprice Fed expectations fast. 2. Oil/yield trajectory given tariff-driven cost pressures already in the tape. 3. Breadth: with conviction diffuse and high-conviction names scarce, watch if today's data creates a decisive sector rotation or just more chop.

Research/education only — not investment advice.