Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_OFF, consistent with a session where Dow futures slid as oil prices surged and Treasury yields hit 2007 highs . Volatility remains contained (VIX ~17), but macro cross-currents — a hawkish Fed, energy-driven inflation risk, and unresolved Mideast tensions — are keeping risk appetite defensive.

Conviction: 48.7/100 A composite near the midpoint of QNTM's scale, with only 3.4% of the 1,422-name universe screening "high conviction." That's a signal of broad-based indecision across the five pillars rather than a clear directional edge — few names are standing out on momentum, quality, and value simultaneously.

On the calendar today The FOMC kicks off its two-day meeting Tuesday, September 15, concluding Wednesday with a policy decision that's widely expected to bring the first hike since 2023 given recent inflation data. No major scheduled data releases stand out pre-market; focus stays on Fed positioning into Wednesday's statement.

Overnight & premarket

Oman postponed planned talks with Iran about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, dashing hopes of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough , per Oman's Foreign Minister. Oil prices surged as hostilities escalated, with Brent crude rising above $108 a barrel Monday. Treasury yields extended their climb alongside energy costs.

What to watch 1) Fed commentary/leaks ahead of Wednesday's decision. 2) Oil-sensitive sectors (airlines, transports, consumer discretionary) reacting to crude near multi-month highs. 3) Any fresh Oman-Iran diplomatic headlines that could swing sentiment either direction.

Research/education only — not investment advice.