Thursday, September 17, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's models flag broad tariff actions, a hawkish Fed, hot inflation prints, and war de-escalation as the active macro currents — a mixed signal set that keeps the model cautious despite calm-looking volatility (VIX ~15.7).

Conviction: 48.3/100 A sub-50 mean composite across 1,421 scored names, with only 2.9% flagged high-conviction, points to a broad lack of standout setups — the model sees few stocks with edge on either side today.

On the calendar today Fed action is already behind the tape: the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023 , delivered Wednesday with a hawkish tilt from Chair Warsh. Today's data: building permits, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and pending home sales , mostly at 8:30am ET.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures moved higher after the major averages declined in the previous session, with Dow futures up 0.2% and S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%/0.5% . Wednesday's close was rough: stocks closed lower after the Fed raised rates as expected, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4% and the Dow shedding 631 points . Notably, Generac jumped 33% in extended trading after Amazon received warrants to purchase up to $340 million worth of its shares tied to a data-center power supply deal. WTI sits near $99.50.

What to watch 1) Jobless claims/Philly Fed for signs the "stabilizing labor market" narrative holds. 2) Any follow-through selling in rate-sensitive sectors after the hawkish dot plot. 3) Friday's triple-witching expiration could add volume/volatility into the close.