Friday, September 18, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags RISK_OFF. Read: a hawkish Fed pivot plus an escalating Iran conflict are outweighing the still-low VIX (15.5), a classic "calm surface, nervous plumbing" setup.

Conviction: 48.4/100 Near the neutral midpoint, with only 3.0% of the 1,420-name universe scoring high-conviction — the model sees a broad, low-differentiation tape rather than a clear buy or sell signal.

On the calendar today No major scheduled data release stands out; this is triple-witching Friday, the quarterly expiration of stock options, index options, and futures that hits every third Friday of March, June, September and December, which can add volume and late-day volatility. This follows Wednesday's headline event: the Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, its "decision passed on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote, with policymakers noting that 'inflation remains elevated.'"

Overnight & premarket

Policymakers voted unanimously to boost the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, lifting the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index by 0.5% , its best day in three months. Oil remains elevated on the ongoing Iran war stalemate; silver rose 2.34% to $67.64/oz and gold gained 0.49% to $4,421.30/oz in early trading as safe-haven demand builds. Lockheed Martin shares rose modestly in premarket trading after the Trump administration approved a potential $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia.

What to watch 1) Triple-witching flows into the close. 2) Any fresh Iran-conflict headlines. 3) Follow-through on the Fed's hawkish dot plot repricing rate expectations.

Research/education only — not investment advice.