Monday, September 21, 2026

Market Regime: MILDLY BULLISH QNTM's regime read aligns with a calm tape — VIX near 14.9 and futures green — but the model is holding a cautious tilt given the active "war escalation" macro flag tied to the Middle East conflict.

Conviction: 49.4/100 A near-coin-flip score with only futures positive across all three major indexes today, and just 3.9% of the 1,420-name universe scoring high-conviction — a signal that gains may be narrow and stock-specific rather than broad-based.

On the calendar today Light data day: Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 6:30 a.m., the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August at 8:30 a.m., and Treasury auctions $92B in 13-week and $79B in 26-week bills at 11:30 a.m. Earnings are sparse; ABVX reports after the close. This follows a Fed that raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since 2023 , on Sept. 16.

Overnight & premarket

Stocks and bonds got a boost as oil retreats and positive anticipation builds ahead of a summit between Trump and Xi; S&P 500 futures advanced 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.8% . In Asia, the Nikkei was closed for holiday, Shanghai gained, and the Hang Seng jumped.

What to watch 1) Headlines into the Trump-Xi White House summit scheduled for Sept. 24, covering trade, tariffs, Taiwan, and AI . 2) Oil's path given the still-elevated $93 WTI backdrop. 3) Whether easing crude and yields can offset lingering war-risk premium.

Educational research, not investment advice.