Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime overlay reads RISK_ON, consistent with easing geopolitical risk: Asian stocks were poised to climb after a tech-fueled rally on Wall Street and a drop in oil prices amid hopes for diplomatic progress in the Iran war. Low volatility (VIX ~14.7) and WTI near $90 support a constructive tape.

Conviction: 48.5/100 Roughly mid-range, with only 2.5% of the 1,420-name universe scoring "high conviction." That signals a broad market rally without many stocks showing strong five-pillar alignment — breadth trails price action.

On the calendar today It's Fed-speaker heavy: the day's schedule features the weekly ADP Employment Change report, alongside speeches from Federal Open Market Committee members including New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. A Treasury 2-Year Note Auction and weekly API crude inventory data also hit. Earnings: AutoZone (AZO) and KB Home (KBH) report.

Overnight & premarket

Equity-index futures for Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia pointed higher, while Japanese markets remained closed for a holiday; US benchmark futures were little changed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted their best days since early August. Oil retreated on de-escalation hopes.

What to watch 1. Fed-speaker tone (Williams/Jefferson/Barkin) for rate-path signals. 2. Whether AZO/KBH earnings confirm consumer resilience. 3. Follow-through in chipmakers/AI names after Monday's rally, given thin breadth implied by conviction data.

Research/education only — not investment advice.