Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Market Regime: RISK-ON QNTM's regime engine reads RISK_ON, with VIX at 14.18 signaling low hedging demand — consistent with the broader easing seen since Middle East tensions began cooling this year.

Conviction: 48.6/100 Conviction sits almost exactly at the model's midpoint, with only 2.7% of the ~1,420-name universe scored high-conviction. That's a market with breadth but little standout stock-picking edge today — the tape looks calm, not compelling.

On the calendar today

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at 10:20 a.m. ET on discount-window modernization and Treasury market functioning at the NY Fed's Treasury Market Conference. A key Federal Reserve activity scorecard for August sits near zero, hinting at slower growth. This week's calendar is light on hard data but heavy on Fed speakers — roughly 10 appearances , so headline risk is speaker-driven rather than data-driven today.

Overnight & premarket

Futures are flat to slightly higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up by firm central bank messaging that rates may stay high . Oil prices are easing, which can help lower fuel and transport costs. Notable premarket movers: MPWR +8%, SCHW -6%.

What to watch 1. Whether Jefferson's remarks shift rate-path expectations given yields already firming. 2. Continued oil softness (WTI ~$90) after the year's Hormuz-driven spike, tracking the de-escalation theme. 3. With conviction near neutral and high-conviction names scarce, breadth/leadership rotation is worth monitoring rather than chasing single names.

Research and education only — not investment advice.