Thursday, September 24, 2026

Market Regime: QNTM's model flags today as RISK_ON, with VIX near 16 — a level consistent with a low-fear backdrop even as bond markets stayed jumpy. The model's "war de-escalation" flag suggests it's weighing eased geopolitical risk more heavily than the recent yield spike.

Conviction: 48.1/100 across 1,419 scored names, with only 2.0% rated high-conviction. A composite this close to the midpoint, paired with so few standout scores, points to a stock-picker's market rather than a broad, one-directional signal today.

On the calendar today: Investors await weekly jobless claims data, along with earnings reports from Costco and Darden Restaurants . August new home sales data is also due, alongside expected earnings from Darden Restaurants and Costco , with Costco reporting after the close.

Overnight & premarket: Stocks and bonds in Asia were set to decline, tracking Wall Street losses as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected US economic data fueled inflation concerns and bets on further interest-rate hikes . The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield rose to highs near 5.14% . WTI crude recently traded near $93.88 , and the yen was near a three-week low as Japan reopened.

What to watch: 1) Whether jobless claims/new home sales cool or add to rate-hike bets; 2) Costco's read on consumer demand after the bell; 3) Oil and long-end yields — both have been the tape's main swing factors this week.