Friday, September 25, 2026

Market Regime: QNTM's model reads RISK_ON with VIX at 15.1. Bonds steadied after a selloff that drove global yields to the highest in decades as oil's rally lost steam, while US and Iran negotiators exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude lower. That war de-escalation signal lines up with why the model's macro overlay is green — low vol plus fading geopolitical risk premium.

Conviction: QNTM's composite sits at 47.9/100 across 1,419 names scored, with only 2.1% flagged high-conviction. A sub-50 average with a thin high-conviction tail means the model sees a broadly average, uninspired setup underneath a favorable macro backdrop — breadth of genuinely strong signals is scarce even as the tape leans risk-on.

On the calendar today: - 8:30am ET: Durable Goods Orders (advance, August) — forecast -0.3%, previous +1.1% . - 10:00am ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final September read — due Friday, September 25, 2026 for final September data at 10am ET . Preliminary print was weak. - No FOMC event today; the last Fed decision was September 16.

Overnight & premarket: Futures pointed to a higher open Friday, with Nasdaq futures up about 0.48%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Dow futures up 0.18%. In Asia, the Nikkei extended weekly gains while Shanghai and Hang Seng slipped; in Europe, the DAX and FTSE 100 edged higher. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped a few basis points to 5.17%, paring a two-day surge. Notable mover: Akamai jumped more than 19% in premarket after announcing a multi-year deal with Anthropic.

What to watch: 1. Durable goods and final Michigan sentiment for signs consumer pessimism is spreading despite solid spending. 2. Whether the Hormuz de-escalation narrative keeps oil and yields subdued into the close. 3. Follow-through in AI/cloud names after Akamai's Anthropic deal, and continued volatility in heavily-indebted chip names.

Research/education only — not investment advice.