Thursday, October 1, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_OFF QNTM's macro overlay flags Risk-Off despite a tame VIX near 16.3 — the signal is being driven by two active stress flags: broad tariff escalation and an escalating war backdrop, not by equity volatility itself.

Conviction: 47.6/100 Just 1.5% of the 1,418 names scored register as high-conviction — a reading that suggests the model is finding very few clean, multi-pillar setups and is leaning toward caution rather than offense.

On the calendar today

8:30am ET weekly jobless claims, 9:45am S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and 10am ISM Manufacturing PMI for September are the main US data points. September payrolls follow Friday. Fed minutes commentary continues to circulate as markets digest recent inflation data.

Overnight & premarket

Stock futures gained Thursday as investors continued to buy AI-related stocks, with S&P 500 futures up roughly 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.6% , after Micron posted blockbuster earnings with revenue quadrupling, lifting other chipmakers . Asian stocks were set for a volatile start after a late bout of swings on Wall Street erased gains from softer inflation data . WTI traded near the low-$90s , consistent with QNTM's $91.52 mark, as Middle East conflict risk keeps a premium in crude.

What to watch 1) ISM Manufacturing print at 10am — weak data could reinforce the risk-off tilt. 2) Oil/war headlines — any escalation could pressure the low-conviction tape further. 3) AI-chip follow-through after Micron, against a backdrop of elevated long-end yields.

Research/education only — not investment advice.