Monday, October 12, 2026

Market Regime: RISK_ON QNTM's regime engine reads today's tape as risk-on, consistent with VIX near 15.4 — low enough to reflect calm positioning rather than fear.

Conviction: 47.7/100 A mid-range score with only 2.0% of the 1,418-name universe in high-conviction territory — breadth is thin even as the macro backdrop stays constructive.

On the calendar today It's Columbus Day — the Treasury market is closed, and there's no scheduled CPI, retail sales, or PPI release today; those land Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI, retail sales) . Several Fed officials speak, including Hammack, Waller, Bowman, Barkin and Collins. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi report results on Tuesday , kicking off bank earnings season, with FedEx posting after today's close.

Overnight & premarket

US stock futures traded flat, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.1% and Dow futures up 0.2% , following Friday's gains. Oil eased as Trump's announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire outweighed Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport , with WTI holding near $91-93. Premarket movers: IREN rose about 5% after a reported multiyear cloud agreement with Anthropic , while SanDisk is down 8% over three sessions ahead of earnings .

What to watch 1) Bank earnings Tuesday as an early read on credit and consumer health. 2) Oil's reaction to the fragile Middle East/Russia-Ukraine headlines. 3) Thin holiday liquidity exaggerating intraday swings.

Research/education only — not investment advice.