Monday, July 20, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — Monday, July 20, 2026

QNTM's rules-based model portfolio edged down 0.03% today, outperforming SPY's 0.21% decline by about 18 basis points. Small win, but notable given the backdrop.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to RISK_OFF overnight as the model's macro overlay reacted to the "war_escalation" flag — the U.S. completed its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran overnight . With average conviction at just 49.3 and only 2.4% of the 1,423-name universe scoring "high conviction," the model's 50-holding portfolio stayed defensively tilted and lighter on the mega-cap tech names that whipsawed benchmarks intraday. That mattered: the S&P 500 traded down 0.1% while the Dow lost 0.6%, dragged by more than a 1% loss in Apple , even as the Nasdaq rose on oil-price fluctuations tied to the Iran conflict, with chipmakers giving the index a boost . QNTM's underweight to that volatile Apple/mega-cap complex helped it avoid the worst of the Dow's drag.

Market recap: WTI crude settled near $82.78 , and U.S. gas prices again surged to an average of $4 a gallon as Middle East tensions intensified. The VIX rose to around 18.6-18.77 , a modest fear-gauge pickup consistent with QNTM's risk-off shift. Investors are watching upcoming AI-spending earnings, with Alphabet reporting July 22 .

What's next: Watch for follow-through on Iran headlines and whether tech earnings can stabilize the recent AI-stock volatility.

Research/education only — not investment advice.