Saturday, July 25, 2026

QNTM Week Wrap — week ending July 25, 2026

The model portfolio returned +1.92% this week versus SPY's -0.43%, a roughly 2.4-point edge across 44 holdings, while QNTM's regime engine flipped to RISK_OFF (VIX 18.7, conviction score 48.4 on 1,423 names scored, only 1.5% rated high-conviction).

Drivers: Wednesday was the week's worst session for the broad market — the tech-heavy index was bogged down by a 7% drop in Alphabet and a 14% loss in Tesla following their earnings reports , while oil prices put more pressure on stocks, as they soared after Yemen's Houthi militant group claimed attacks on two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea . Chips stayed weak into Friday, as a gauge of semiconductor firms sank 4.3% and the Nasdaq 100 fell over 1% , even as a 3.5% jump in Apple boosted the blue-chip index . QNTM's lighter mega-cap/semis weighting relative to SPY's benchmark composition likely limited drag from those names.

Macro backdrop: The two flags behind RISK_OFF were tariffs and war. New tariffs applying to 60 trade partners, covering over 99% of U.S. trade, were imposed by the Trump administration just after midnight ET Friday , layered on an already-jittery tape from Middle East escalation and oil volatility.

Next week: Markets remain unsettled ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, with investors uncertain whether Kevin Warsh will back a rate increase , alongside earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Apple .

Research/education only — not investment advice.