Wednesday, July 29, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — July 29, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell 0.32% today, meaningfully outperforming SPY's 1.5% decline — a wide gap driven by the model's risk-off positioning.

What drove it: QNTM's regime overlay flagged RISK_OFF overnight after Iran's renewed strikes, and conviction across the 1,423-stock universe sank to 49.1, with just 2.5% of names scoring "high conviction." That low-conviction signal kept the model light on the sectors that got hit hardest today — tech and semiconductors. South Korea's exchange triggered a circuit breaker as the Kospi plunged 8%, with SK Hynix and Samsung tanking nearly 13% and 8% , and Asian technology stocks extended their sell-off Wednesday, with semiconductor names leading declines after another weak session in the U.S. That chip-led weakness is a much larger drag on cap-weighted SPY than on QNTM's more selectively screened book.

Market recap: The Dow traded about 2.1% lower for its worst decline since April 2025, the S&P 500 slid 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9% . The proximate triggers: Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces; all were intercepted, but the U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck back at Iran-backed groups in Iraq , sending WTI toward $84-85. Separately, stocks tumbled largely because the bond market signaled the Fed could be falling behind on inflation after it chose to hold rates unchanged, with the 10-year yield jumping to above 4.66% .

What's next: Markets will digest new Fed Chair Warsh's guidance and watch for further Middle East developments; oil-driven inflation risk remains the key swing factor for rate expectations.

Educational content only — not investment advice.