Friday, July 31, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, July 31, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned +0.06% today, trailing SPY's +0.67% by roughly 60bps — a rare underperformance day.

What drove it: QNTM's macro overlay flipped to RISK_OFF ahead of the close, reflecting the fifth macro flag this month tied to war escalation. Oil prices turned higher as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz began to falter following a recent reescalation in hostilities, with WTI near $85 and Brent near $90. With WTI at $84.88, the model's regime logic trimmed exposure to cyclical/high-beta names — capping upside just as the tape rallied. Meanwhile, only 2.0% of the 1,423-stock universe screened "high conviction" today (mean composite 49.2, essentially neutral), leaving the 50-name model portfolio thin on offense. That mattered because the index's gain was narrow and mega-cap-driven: Amazon stock surged nearly 13% after the company beat earnings expectations, while Apple shares tumbled 7.2% as its Services and China revenue fell short. A model built for breadth, not single-stock concentration, doesn't capture a one-name-driven pop like Amazon's.

Market recap: The S&P 500 gained 0.67%, the Dow rose 0.38–0.5%, the Nasdaq advanced roughly 1%, and the Russell 2000 increased 1.37%. The 10-year Treasury note reached 4.737% intraday, its highest since January 2025, while the 30-year hovered near 5.22% , a level last seen in 2007 — a headwind investors mostly shrugged off.

Next: Watch whether rising long-term yields and Mideast oil-supply risk force the regime overlay to stay defensive into next week, or whether conviction breadth improves as earnings season winds down.

Research/education only — not investment advice.