Saturday, August 1, 2026

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ending August 1, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.47% this week vs. +1.07% for SPY — a modest lag as the benchmark's mega-cap concentration paid off.

What drove it: Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold — the Fed held rates steady with three FOMC members dissenting in favor of a hike — sent the Dow down more than 1,100 points as oil rose on renewed Middle East tensions and long-dated yields climbed . WTI closed near $84.67, consistent with the "war_escalation" flag in our data. Thursday reversed hard: momentum staged one of its best days ever, with the iShares Momentum ETF (MTUM) up 5.5% , following relief that the Situational Awareness hedge fund unwind appeared to be over . QNTM's diversified, equal-weight structure captured less of that snapback than cap-weighted SPY, whose mega-cap tech (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple earnings week) provided outsized lift. Semiconductor/AI-hardware names remained the widest swing factor for both books.

Macro backdrop: Our regime overlay flipped to RISK_OFF as hawkish Fed signaling combined with geopolitical escalation. Despite the volatility, VIX stayed contained near 16, and conviction across our 1,423-name universe sits at just 49.2 (only 2% high-conviction), reflecting a genuinely mixed, low-visibility tape.

Next week: July nonfarm payrolls are expected near 87,500 with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% , alongside continued earnings from Caterpillar, Palantir, and Merck.

Educational research only — not investment advice.