Thursday, August 20, 2026

QNTM Daily Wrap — August 20, 2026

The model portfolio slipped -0.52% today, outpacing SPY's -0.90% decline by 38bps — modest outperformance in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: QNTM flipped to a RISK_OFF regime overnight, and conviction sat at a soft 49.8 (just 3.9% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction"), reflecting a market pricing new tariff friction and shaky rates. The real-world catalyst was the S&P 500 extended this week's drop, with Walmart Inc. sinking 9.7% on disappointing sales , dragging the Dow down nearly 1.3%. QNTM's 50-name model carries no retail mega-cap concentration comparable to the S&P's cap-weighting, so it avoided the brunt of that single-name shock — a diversification effect rather than a specific bet against Walmart. Separately, oil settled near $88 as Trump's threat to crush the Iranian economy clouded peace prospects, while thirty-year yields climbed even as Bessent flagged a bigger buyback , keeping energy and rate-sensitive names volatile.

Market recap: The Dow fell 1.3%, or nearly 700 points, the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq declined 1% after all three indexes had rallied Wednesday . VIX ticked up to ~16 as yields reversed a brief Treasury-buyback-driven rally.

What's next: Watch Friday's Philly Fed follow-through and any headlines on the tentative U.S.-Canada tariff framework for direction into next week.

Research/education only — not investment advice.