Tuesday, August 25, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — August 25, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell -0.53% today while SPY gained +0.31% — a roughly 84 bp gap. QNTM's regime flag was RISK_OFF, triggered by the ongoing "tariff_broad" macro event, and average conviction across the 1,422-name scored universe sat at just 49.7, with only 3.4% of stocks rated high-conviction. That defensive posture likely caused the model to miss today's move higher.

What drove it: The broad tape was led by tech and healthcare — the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.57 percent, with technology and healthcare leading . The standout was Moderna, which surged 13.89 percent to $158.18 on positive Phase 3 trial data for a personalized melanoma vaccine developed with Merck — a name a risk-off, tariff-cautious model would plausibly be underweight. On the downside, DICK'S Sporting Goods cratered 29% on a Foot Locker miss , illustrating how single-name shocks in consumer discretionary can hit concentrated portfolios. With tariff escalation still front and center — Canada announced retaliatory tariffs applying to roughly $20 billion in goods, set to take effect Sept. 8, ranging from 15% to 50% — QNTM's overlay stayed defensive.

Market recap: The S&P 500 gained 24.39 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 7,677.25 , though volume was lighter than average, suggesting narrow conviction behind the gains . VIX held low near 15.5.

What's next: Nvidia earnings and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks Friday are the key catalysts to watch.