Wednesday, August 26, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — August 26, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) returned +0.45% today versus +0.01% for SPY, a meaningful outperformance in a session where the broad market barely moved. US stocks were mostly lower amid losses from heavyweight chip producers ahead of earnings results from Nvidia, with the S&P 500 and Dow inching below the flatline and the Nasdaq 100 falling 0.5%.

What drove it: QNTM flagged a RISK_OFF regime today with conviction at just 49.6/100 and only 3% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction" — a defensive signal that kept the model light on mega-cap semis and AI-capex names. Nvidia shares wavered ahead of their earnings release after the bell, and Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon all traded lower. That underweight is a big reason the model didn't share in the chip-led drag. On the positive side, Meta jumped 4% after agreeing to a $16.7 billion settlement with US states over social media strategy for teens — a name the model's sentiment/quality pillars had favored.

Macro backdrop: A closely watched US price gauge rose in line with expectations in July, with core PCE up 0.2% and 3.3% year-over-year, giving the Fed some room to hold rates near-term. Headline PCE ran a touch hot at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected. WTI crude sat near $82. VIX stayed subdued at 15.3 despite the cautious regime read.

What's next: Nvidia's earnings, released after the close, will likely set the tone for tech and the broader tape tomorrow.