Friday, September 4, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — September 4, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio returned ‑0.51% today, trailing the SPY benchmark's ‑0.41% by about 10 basis points — a modest but real gap given the model's more concentrated, 50-name book.

What drove it: The divergence traces to the model's tilt toward higher-beta growth and consumer-discretionary names, which bore the brunt of today's rate-hike repricing. Tesla shares dropped more than 6% Friday after the electric-vehicle maker's Cybercab launch left analysts with more questions than answers , and Lululemon plummeted on disappointing results — both name-specific hits that likely weighed on model holdings more than on the broader cap-weighted SPY, which had cushioning from defensive sectors. Conviction sat at a middling 49.4 across 1,422 scored names, with just 3.2% flagged high-conviction — a thin opportunity set typical of a choppy, data-driven session.

Market recap: The Dow fell 0.5% (272 points) and the S&P 500 slid 0.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.3%, after nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 in August, much more than the 53,000 economists expected . The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and Treasury yields rose as fed funds futures traders priced in a roughly 58% chance of a September rate hike . The VIX stayed low near 14.3, and WTI crude eased to $91.50, consistent with the session's "good news is bad news" tone.

What's next: Markets shift focus to next week's CPI/PPI data, key inputs for the Fed's September decision. Markets closed Monday, Sept. 7 for Labor Day.