Friday, September 11, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — Friday, September 11, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio gained +0.4% today, trailing the SPY's +0.87% advance — a modest ~47bp lag on a day markets actually rallied.

What drove it: QNTM's regime engine flagged RISK_OFF overnight, and with conviction at just 48.7 (only 2.9% of the 1,422-name universe scoring "high conviction"), the model's 50 holdings were tilted toward defensive quality and value rather than the momentum names that led today's bounce. That mattered because the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund led all sectors with a 1.7% advance , and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF was the standout, rallying 2.0% . QNTM's model was underweight that cohort, so it captured only a fraction of the tech/semis pop. Oracle dropped 4.0%, extending a post-earnings drift after second-quarter revenue missed consensus — a name QNTM's sentiment/quality screens had already flagged as weak, limiting damage to the model versus SPY's broader tech exposure.

Market recap: Stocks rebounded from four straight losing sessions as WTI crude fell 3.0% to $99.36 , easing off this week's spike. Core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus , and Fed funds futures now price a near-90% chance of a hike at next week's FOMC meeting . VIX eased alongside the relief rally.

What's next: All eyes shift to next week's Fed decision — a hawkish surprise on tariffs/oil-driven inflation could quickly flip today's bounce.

Research/education only — not investment advice.