Saturday, September 12, 2026

QNTM Week Wrap — Week Ended September 11, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) lagged SPY into the weekend, returning -1.07% on the session versus SPY's -0.77%, a ~30bp gap. Conviction across the 1,422-stock universe sat at just 48.6/100, with only 2.7% of names scoring "high conviction" — the model flagged a RISK_OFF regime for the week.

Attribution: Energy was the standout, with global energy stocks climbing to a record high, and the iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC) rising to its highest level since its 2001 inception , while healthcare stocks led declines alongside financials, with XLV tumbling on Novartis announcing two failed drug trial studies . Semis were a bright spot within tech.

Macro backdrop: The week was dominated by Brent hitting $108 a barrel on September 10, its highest level since May, as fighting between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensified , alongside an IRGC strike on a U.S. "Saildrone-type" unmanned vessel in the Strait of Hormuz . Friday's August CPI showed gasoline jumping 3.9%, accounting for more than a third of the headline gain, with the energy index up 16.3% year-over-year , and the odds of a Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting jumped to nearly 90% .

Next week: All eyes on the Fed's interest rate announcement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sept. 16 — a potential first hike since 2023.

Research/education only — not investment advice.