Tuesday, September 15, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

The model portfolio (45 holdings) returned +0.16% today versus SPY -0.49%, a ~65bp gap in a broad risk-off tape.

What drove it: The regime engine flagged RISK_OFF (VIX 17.4, WTI $105.6) alongside tariff, hawkish-Fed, and oil-spike flags. In practice, crude oil jumped 4.47% to nearly $106 while the Dow fell 0.80%, the S&P 500 0.47%, and the Nasdaq 0.75% . The pain was concentrated in chips: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.9%, with Nvidia and Intel dropping 3.4% and 5.6%, respectively , as investors braced for Wednesday's Fed decision and weighed fallout from an Anthropic AI-safety essay . QNTM's five-pillar screen has been trimming semiconductor/AI-momentum exposure for weeks on deteriorating sentiment and volume signals, which limited drag from that group. Meanwhile energy-tilted names benefited directly from the oil spike, cushioning the book. This selectivity — light on the day's biggest losers, present in the day's beneficiaries — explains the outperformance.

Market recap: The 10-year Treasury yield surged as much as four basis points to 5.02%, moving above its 2023 peak to its highest level since 2007 . A 25bp hike is now almost fully priced, with focus on whether Chair Warsh frames it as a one-off or signals further tightening.

Conviction: 48.3/100 (only 3.2% of 1,422 names scored high-conviction) — a cautious signal.

Next: All eyes on tomorrow's FOMC decision and Warsh's press conference.

Educational research, not investment advice.