Thursday, September 17, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — September 17, 2026

The model portfolio returned +0.25% today, trailing SPY's +1.15% gain — a wide gap on a day markets snapped back hard.

What drove it: QNTM's macro overlay stayed in RISK_OFF, with conviction at just 48.6 and only 2.9% of the 1,421-name universe scoring "high conviction." That defensive stance across the 45-holding model meant less exposure to the exact trade that powered SPY today: a tech/semiconductor rebound. The S&P 500 rose about 1% as a closely watched gauge of chipmakers climbed 3% , a bounce traders attributed to relief that Wednesday's hawkish Fed shock was already priced in and to Brent crude slipping to around $104 a barrel on signs Middle East supply disruptions were easing . QNTM's tariff-and-oil-spike flags (WTI still elevated near $101) kept the model's value/quality tilt intact rather than chasing the high-beta chip rally, capping upside participation.

Market recap: Futures rose Thursday after Wednesday's Fed decision, which delivered a first hike since 2023 — 25bps to 3.75%-4% — while signaling another increase later this year . Separately, President Trump threatened tariffs and a possible trade halt with the EU , adding to the tariff-related caution embedded in today's regime read. 10-year Treasury yields declined from their highest level since 2007 , easing some pressure.

What's next: Markets will watch whether Fed officials reinforce or soften the hawkish dot-plot signal, and whether oil and tariff headlines stabilize enough to shift QNTM's regime out of RISK_OFF.

Research and education only — not investment advice.