Friday, September 18, 2026

QNTM Day Wrap — September 18, 2026

The QNTM model portfolio (50 holdings) fell -0.42% today, trailing SPY's -0.12% by 30bps. Conviction sits at a neutral 48.4 across 1,420 scored names, with just 2.4% flagging high-conviction — a thin, cautious tape.

What drove it: Today was quadruple witching, the last hour of trading when options, futures and single-stock futures expire simultaneously, which can increase volatility . Market internals favored mega-cap tech: breadth was good with 63% of stocks advancing, the Nasdaq 100 and Magnificent Seven led while semiconductors rose close to 3%, but the Russell 2000 lagged, closing at the day's lows with a gain of just 0.6% . QNTM's 50-name model skews more diversified and less mega-cap-concentrated than SPY, so it missed the chip-led pop that carried the index — a small-cap/breadth gap, not a single blowup name.

Market recap: Indices were mixed-to-flat as oil prices and Treasury yields eased following the Fed's first interest rate hike in three years . Crude stayed elevated but off its highs amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, through which over 20% of world oil trade passes . Berkshire Hathaway drew attention as Warren Buffett stepped down as chairman, becoming chairman emeritus with son Howard Buffett taking the role .

What's next: Watch whether 10-year yields stabilize below 5% and how the oil/geopolitical situation evolves into next week's data.

This is research commentary, not investment advice.